外国直接投资在中国(1)

ForeignDirectInvestmentinChinaSethCox3March2005ForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)Whenisinvestmentbestdefinedas‘direct?’–Wheninvestmentgivesrisetoforeigncontrolofdomesticassets–IMF-“…madetoacquirealastinginterestinanenterprisewheretheinvestorhasaneffectivevoiceinthemamagmentofthecompany”ForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)Investmentthresholdsetatstatelevel–US:‘direct’whenstakeexceeds10%–China(PRC):whenstakeexceeds25%Higherleveltoencouragelargerinvestment?Terms:–Inflow-quantityofFDIflowingintostateoveragiventimeperiod-dynamicmeasure–Stock:totalaccumulationofinvestmentatagivenpointintime-staticmeasureFDI-WhatDoesitOffer?1.Capital-long-term,riskyinvestment2.MarketAccess-exportmarkets3.PromoteExport-ledstrategiesofgrowth4.Employment5.Technology-transfersincreaseproductivity6.SpilloversandLinkages-introductionofmorecompetitiveenvironmentandconnectionstolocalindustryboostproductivityandoutputofentireeconomyWhathasFDIDoneforChina?RoleinEconomicTransformation-General–Establishednewindustrialbranches–Employmentopportunities–Technologicaltransfers–TechnologicalandManagerialSkillsSpilloverstodomesticindustry–InternationalTrade-boostedimmenselyExportproductionbyForeign-InvestedEnterprises–Increasedfrom1%in’85to45%in‘98FIE-LedExportGrowthSource:Lardy(1999)#ApprovedApplicationsApprovedInflowActualInflow1979-19829226.011.1719834701.730.64198418562.651.26198530735.931.66198614982.831.87198722333.712.31198859455.33.19198957795.63.39199072736.63.4919911297811.984.3719924876458.1211.01199383437111.4427.5219944754982.6833.7719953701191.2837.5219962455673.2841.731997210015145.26Sources:(StateStatisticalBureau1998),p.138.TheFDIBoominChinaIn2002Chinawasthe#1recipientofFDIworldwideRapidFDIgrowthbeganinearly1990’s–1979-1992FDIinflowof20.2billionUSD–1997stockstoodat196.8billionUSD5yearinflowof176.6billionUSD-accountsfor89%stock!–CompoundannualgrowthrateofFDI@44%from1992-1997GNP-FDIrosefrom2%in’92to5%in’97–FDIinS.Koreaearly’90’sat.02%GNPWhathappenedintheearly1990’s-specifically1992?TheFDIBoominChinaSource:ChinaBusinessReview(Nov.-Dec.2000)-Investmentboomsintheearly1990’sthenretractsinthewakeoftheAsianfinancialcrisisWhatAccountsfortheBoom?ExplicitChinesepolicypremiumonForeigncapital-Why?–TraditionalMotivations-conventionalgainsProductivityImprovements-significantspilloversandlinkages-morecompetitiveenvironmentFIE’salmosttwiceasprofitableasSOE’s–43,542IndustrialFIE’sw/profitof40.79billionUSD–86,982SOE’swithaprofitof41.26billionUSD–Averagedifferenceinprofitof$462,445Yet,noextraordinarypolicyshiftsin1991-92WhatAccountsfortheBoom?PolicyMotivationsSavings-InvestmentGap-–Countriesneedtosubsidizeindustrialization,yetlackforeignexchange-Doesn’tholdforPRC–SavingsRate-higher@40.6%duringboomyrs.Lowerfrom1986-92@36%Savedmorewithmorecapitalpresent?–PRCasaCapitalExporter?(1998-WSJ)PRChas40%ofreservesinvestedinUStreasurybonds(=56bn)In1998exportedapprox.16billionUSD*Ineithercase,thePRChadnochronicshortageofdomesticcapitalatthetimeoftheFDIboom*Yet,explicitpolicypremiumonforeigncapitalThePreferenceforForeignCapitalObviousbenefitsfromconventionalFDIwisdom-transfers,spilloversandlinkages*BenefitsmustoutweighcostsofcourtingFDIThereareconsequencesofthepolicypreference–Round-TripFDI-Domesticcapitalexportedtoacquireaforeign“domicile,”re-importedtoestablishanFIE-NonetcapitalgainEstimated@25%totalFDIbytheWorldBankProblemsoftheInvestmentEnvironmentRegionalProtectionism-comparabletoregionalISIstrategies–Toobtainmarketaccess,mustproducew/iregion–HugereturnsfromproducingwithinprotectivewallLimitedcompetition–Alsoleadstosimilarpredatorybehavior&rent-seeking–Benefit:RegionalcompetitiontolureFDIwillleadtoerosionofbarrierstoFDIatnationallevelRoomforImprovementDespitehugeFDIstock,PRCstillfarbelowotherdevelopingstatesinFDIpercapitameasurements–In2000:Brazilreceived$195percapita–Chinagotonly$30perhead-15%Brazil's–OECDstates-highlydeveloped-avg.$1,320.9–ClosestdevelopingstateisS.Africa$22.2–Nexthighestpercapitaratio@$54-ThailandChinastillhasfartogobeforeachievingadevelopedstatusAttractingHigh-QualityFDIHigh-Quality?Investmentinlong-term,capital-intensiveprojectsinhigh-techsectors–MajorityofFDIinmanufacturingsectors(63%)Heavilyfocusedonlight&intermed.manufacturesThetimewillcometooutsourcethesejobsandmoveuptheproductionladder–JustasS.Koreadid(Nike)–Fornow,ChinaisthemanufacturertoAsiaFDIinChinabySector,1999SectorProjectsAmountContractedAmountUtilized($million)Farming,Forestry,LivestockFarming,Fishing7621,471.70710.15Mining130322.21557.14Manufacturing12,04225,331.8022,603.34Textiles5351,198.521,370.89Chemicals8671,758.741,919.28Pharmaceuticals198692.62684.41OrdinaryMachinery485904.47976.69SpecialEquipment500743.33509.95Electronicand9223,942.713,145.72TelecommunicationsEquipmentPower,Gas,andWaterProductionandSupply1161,635.193,702.74Construction2471,096.19916.58GeologicalProspectingandWaterConservancy1053.974.52Transportation,Storage,andPostandTelecommunicationsServices2051,114.011,551.14Wholesale,Retail,andFood-relatedServices8251,204.13965.13FinanceandInsurance337.0897.67RealEstate6694,177