碳税政策的减排效果及其对我国经济的影响分析

1,1,1,2(1.,200062;2.,100080):(CGE),,3,6,CO2,1141-2132,,,,;,,;,;,,,,:;CGE;;;:F205:A:1002-9753(2010)04-0001-10AbatementEffectofCarbonTaxandItsImpactsonEconomyinChinaZHUYong-bin1,LIUXiao1,WANGZheng1,2(1.KeyLaboratoryofGeographicalInformationScience,MinistryofStateEducationofChina,EastChinaNormalUniversity,Shanghai200062,China;2.InstituteofPolicyandManagementScience,CAS,Beijing100080,China):2009-12-22:2010-04-04:(40771076):;863(2008AA12Z204):;(kzcx2-yw-305-4)::(1983-),,,::Abstract:ThispaperintroducescarbontaxintoaComputableGeneralEquilibrium(CGE)model,andsimulatesitsabatementeffectandimpactsonChina’seconomyunder6scenarios,withrespecttotwokindsofcarbontax,theproduc2tiveandconsumptiveones,andthreedifferenttaxratelevels.ThesimulationsuggeststhatcarbontaxcanreducetheCO2emissioneffectively,amountingto11.41and21.32milliontonsabatementunderconsumptiveandproductivescenari2osrespectivelywithhightaxrate.Oncecarbontaxislevied,GDPanddomesticsupplyincreases,andimportincreasessimultaneously;demandforcompoundproducthasanascendingtendency,mainlytofulfilltheinvestmentdemand;onthe1factorofmarkets,investmentandrequirementforcapitalriseslightly,whiledemandforlabordecreasesduetofactorsub2stitution.Theshrinkingproductionscaleoffirmsleadstoadeclineofenterpriseincomeandthecorrespondingownershipincome.Boththedeclineofownershipincomeandincomefromlaborsupplycutdownthetotalanddisposableincomeoftheresidents.Thatisonereasontoexplainthedroppingconsumptionofresidents,whileanotherreasonisthetax-addedpricerise.Meanwhile,governmentrevenueclimbsupowingtothelevyoncarbontaxandtariffincrease,despiteofthedecreaseinincometaxfromresidentsandenterprises.Fromthedisaggregatedpointofview,carbontaxlowersthedemandandsupplyofenergyproductsthathavehighcarboncontent,andaffectsthenon-energysectorsinoppositeways:Toys,sportingandathleticandrecreationproducts,knittedandcrochetedfabricsandarticles,basicchemicals,leather,fur,downandrelatedproducts,culturalandofficeequipment,chemicalproductsfordailyuse,cotton,woolen,hemptextilesandtextilesproductions,wearingapparelaresectorsthatsufferthemost,whileothersectorssuchastelecommunicatione2quipment,electroniccomputer,otherelectronicandcommunicationequipment,electronicelementanddevice,construc2tion,storageandwarehousing,motorvehiclesandforestryaresectorsthatgreatlybenefitfromthecarbontax.Keywords:carbontax;CGE;climateprotection;abatementeffect;economicimpact,[1],Barker,--(),1990-200512%,,GDP0.2%[2];Shrestha,,,,,,[3];Baranzini(),[1];Wissema(CGE),,,,10-15(CO2)199825.8%[4],Nakata[5]Scrimgeour[6];Zhang,,[7],[8],,;CGE[9],,,;,,[10],,,121(CGE),CGE,,CGE[11],[12],220104()CO2,CO2,CO2,[1],,,;(),CGE,:PDj=ni=1aijPi+PNj(1+tj)(1+tCO2,j)jE(2.1),PDjj,aij(j),Pii,PNj,tjj,tCO2,j,E,:TC=jEXjPjtCO2,j(2.2),Xjj,,,,,,,:PDi=jEajiPj(1+tCO2,j)+k|EakiPk+PNi(1+ti)(2.3),,,,()(CGE,,,,,):PjChj(1+tCO2,j)=Pjhj(1+tCO2,j)+hjDIh-ni=1Pihi(1+tCO2,j)jEPkChk=Pkhk+hkDIh-ni=1Pihi(1+tCO2,j)k|E(2.4),Chj(,)j,jj,jj,DIhtCO2,j=0wheni|E:TC=jE(ITj+Crj+Cuj)PjtCO2,j(2.5),ITj,CrjCujj,:ITj=ni=1ajiXi(2.6),,:Yg=TX+TM-TE+TC+TDe+TDu+TDr(2.7),TX,TM,TE,TDe,TDuTDr(),(,:%),()()CO2,:tCO2,i=ECiXitC(2.8)3,tCO2,ii,ECii,Xii(,),tCTC:TC=i(tCO2,iXi)=iECiXitCXi=ECtC(2.9),,520072008Revised1996IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories:TheWorkbook(Volume2),ECiXi(1)120073()()(/)173295162729603146601810451291931036415129159191192952200911516188281420211168923878186492928145318115414236156041108128953182263:,1=44/12CO2,;(),IEACO2EmissionsfromFuelCombustion2009-Highlights,2007CO26027.9,,164397,,20/50/100/,3.61%,9.02%,18.05%;0.39%,0.96%,1.93%;0.23%,0.58%,1.17%;1.63%,4.08%,8.15%;0.76%,1.91%,3.82%:()1,,,,,,,,,,,20/50/100/228.2(426.41),570.5(1066.01)1141(2123.03),20070.14%-1.30%,CO2,,,,,1.3%1(:):20/ConCon;20/ProPro,420104,,,(),,,(2),,,:GDP0.01%-0.09%,0.02%-0.21%,0.02%-0.26%,,0.03%-0.28%,GDP(),,,,0.03%-0.32%,0.08-0.89,0.5-4.9(3),,,,,0.05%-0.49%,0103%-0.27%,0109%-0.77%,,0.04%-0.38%,0.03%-0.25%;,,0.03%-0.30%,0.02%-0.16%;,,0.23%-2.26%,0.12%-112%,,22GDP53(4),,0.13%-1.38%,,0.03%-0.27%;,0.05%-0.51%,;,0.02%-0.2%,0.09%-0.77%4620104(5),,0.14%-1.38%0.52%-5.05%,95.06-914.59;,0.08%-0.83%,,0.09%-0177%,0.05%-0.49%,0.03%-0.27%,,0.02%-0.18%,,0.31%-3.04%,,,,,()2,,,,,,1.96%-9.78%(4.02%-20.08%);1.19%-5.96%(2.02%-10.12%).,,,0.19%-0.94%(0127%-1.35%)0.52%-2.6%(0.64%-3118%),(),(),,5,,,,7,0.24%-1.2%(0.46%-2.32%),,,,,,2,(3),,0.75%-3.75%(1.26%-6.31%),,,0.03%-0.16%(0.07%-0.35%)0105%-0.24%(0.06%-0.29%),,0107%-0.36%(0.05%-0.23%),,,,2(:%)1.96(4.02)4.89(10.04)9.78(20.08)0.24(0.46)0.60(1.16)1.20(2.32)1.90(3.90)4.75(9.74)9.49(19.49)-0.05(0.03)-0.13(0.07)-0.25(0.14)-0.29(-0.62)-0.73(-1.54)-1.46(-3.09)-0.03(0.02)-0.09(0.05)-0.17(0.10)0.19(0.27)0.47(0.67)0.94(1.35)-0.16(-0.19)-0.39(-0.47)-0.78(-0.94)0.16(0.24)0.41(0.59)0.82(1.18)1.19(2.02)2.98(5.06)5.96(10.12)-1.50(-2.52)-3.75(-6.31)-7.50(-12.62)1.04(1.76)2.59(4.39)5.18(8.79)0.52(0.64)1.30(1.59)2.60(3.18)-5.23(-6.73)-13.08(-16.82)-26.16(-33.65)0.48(0.59)1.20(1.47)2.40(2.93):20/50/100/,,33(:%)-0.25(-0.48)-0.61(-1.19)-1.23(-2.38)-0.17(-0.32)-0.42(-0.79)-0.83(-1.58)1.30(2.70)3.25(6.74)6.50(