自由现金流估值模型xls)(1)

ForecastingVariables:2002200320042005200620072008200920102011Revenuegrowthfactor20%30%40%50%60%50%40%30%20%10%Expectedgrossprofitmargin50%51%52%53%54%55%56%57%58%59%S,G,&Aexpense%ofrevenue50%40%30%29%28%27%26%25%24%23%Depr.&Amort.%ofrevenue10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%Capitalexpendituregrowthfactor40%35%30%25%20%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%Networkingcapitaltosalesratio19%18%17%16%15%14%13%12%11%10%Incometaxrate40%40%Assumedlong-termsustainablegrowthrate5%peryearafter20115%Discountrate20%20%2002200320042005200620072008200920102011ValuationModelOutputs:Grossprofitmargin50%51%52%53%54%55%56%57%58%59%Netoperatingprofitmargin-10%1%12%10%10%11%12%13%14%16%Freecashflow($mil)($1.3)($1.4)($1.3)($1.4)($1.0)$0.7$2.8$5.2$7.3$8.8Terminalvalue($mil)$61.8PVofCompanyOperations($mil)$11.1MarketValueofCompanyAssets($mil)$11.6TheDiscountedFreeCashFlowModelforaCompleteBusinessPieIntheSkyCompanyTheFreeCashFlowBusinessValuationModelInstructions:Changeanyoftheforecastingvariablesshowninredbelowandobservetheeffectonthemodel'soutputsinthesectionbelow.Towhatvariableisthebusinessvalueconclusionmostsensitive?Towhatvariableisitleastsensitive?Actual20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011Totalrevenue$2,000,000$2,400,000$3,120,000$4,368,000$6,552,000$10,483,200$15,724,800$22,014,720$28,619,136$34,342,963$37,777,260CostofGoodsSold1,200,0001,200,0001,528,8002,096,6403,079,4404,822,2727,076,1609,686,47712,306,22814,424,04515,488,676Grossprofit800,0001,200,0001,591,2002,271,3603,472,5605,660,9288,648,64012,328,24316,312,90819,918,91822,288,584Selling,generalandadministrativeexpenses1,200,0001,200,0001,248,0001,310,4001,900,0802,935,2964,245,6965,723,8277,154,7848,242,3118,688,770Earningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depr.&amort.(EBITDA)-400,0000343,200960,9601,572,4802,725,6324,402,9446,604,4169,158,12411,676,60713,599,814Depreciationandamortization200,000240,000312,000436,800655,2001,048,3201,572,4802,201,4722,861,9143,434,2963,777,726EarningsbeforeInterestandtaxes(EBIT)-600,000-240,00031,200524,160917,2801,677,3122,830,4644,402,9446,296,2108,242,3119,822,088Availabletax-losscarryforwards0-600,000-840,000-808,800-284,640000000Nettaxableearnings0000632,6401,677,3122,830,4644,402,9446,296,2108,242,3119,822,088FederalandStateIncomeTaxes0000253,056670,9251,132,1861,761,1782,518,4843,296,9243,928,835NetOperatingProfitAfter-Tax(NOPAT)-600,000-240,00031,200524,160664,2241,006,3871,698,2782,641,7663,777,7264,945,3875,893,253Addbackdepreciationandamortization200,000240,000312,000436,800655,2001,048,3201,572,4802,201,4722,861,9143,434,2963,777,726SubtractCapitalExpenditures-1,000,000-1,400,000-1,890,000-2,457,000-3,071,250-3,685,500-3,316,950-2,819,408-2,255,526-1,691,645-1,184,151SubtractNewNetWorkingCapital76,000129,600212,160349,440589,680733,824817,690792,530629,621343,430FreeCashFlow($1,400,000)($1,324,000)($1,417,200)($1,283,880)($1,402,386)($1,041,113)$687,632$2,841,521$5,176,644$7,317,659$8,830,257Terminalvalue,2011$61,811,799PresentValueofFreeCashFlows@20%-1,103,333-984,167-742,986-676,305-418,400230,287793,0161,203,9221,418,21111,409,086TotalPresentValueofCompanyOperations$11,129,331PlusCurrentAssets500,000fromPieintheSkys'December31,2001BalanceSheetTotalMarketValueofGreatExpectations'Assets$11,629,331|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Forecast----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|PieIntheSkyCompanyTheDiscountedFreeCashFlowModelforaCompleteBusinessYearsEndingDecember31