硕士论文-船舶油漆生产线改造中的EVA评估模型应用研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文船舶油漆生产线改造中的EVA评估模型应用研究姓名：戴邺萱申请学位级别：硕士专业：项目管理指导教师：蔡建国;甘湧庆20091001IEVAEVA[t1]()[t2]EVAPM-BOKNPVIRREVAEVAABSTRACTIIEVA,EVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVAPM-BOKEVAABSTRACTIIIRESEARCHANDAPPLICATIONOFEVAEVALUATIONMODLEFORUPGRADINGPROJECTOFMARINEPAINTPRODUCTIONLINEABSTRACTThethesispurposeistheresearchandapplicationofEVA(economicalvalueadded)evaluationmodeltotheupgradingprojectofmarinepaintequipment.Thethesisisbasedontheactualprojectandusingtheprojectcostmanagementtheory.Itcanbedividedinthefollowingparts:Theresearchsituationabouthomeandoverseamarinepaintandrelatedequipmentdevelopment,andconfirmingtheresearchpurposeandprojectscope;ThedevelopmentaboutEVAevaluationmodelintheworldandintroductionaboutEVAconcept;UsingthebasictheoryofPM-BOK’sprojectcostmanagementsystemastheresearchprocedureguide(costestimating,costbudget,costcontrol);Atthesametime,introducingthetraditionalevaluationmodel—CashEvaluationModel,suchasNetPresentValue(NPV)andInternalRateofReturn(IRR),etc.Then,introducinganewandbettermodel:EVAevaluationmodelandprovingEVAmodelhasthesameevaluationresultasCashevaluationmodel,butEVAisaneasierandmoreeffectivemodel.HoweverEVAhasitslimitation,thenresearchersintrudedanewmodelwhichisABSTRACTIVbasedonsustainabledevelopmentprojectmanagementandupgradestheEVAmodel.Afterallthetheoreticalanalysisandvalidation,EVAevaluationmodelisusedintheupgradingprojectofmarinepaintequipment.Duringthisprocedure,anEVAsoftwareisusedtodealwithallthedatafortheproject.TheactualapplicationresultprovedthevalidityofEVAmodel.KEYWORDS:EVAevaluationmodel,PM-BOKcostmanagement,traditionalcashevaluationmodel,projectmanagementmodelonsustainabledevelopment,EVAsoftwareXIEVA:EconomicalvalueaddedDCF:Discountingcashflow,NPVnetpresentvalue),NPV,,IRRInternalRateofReturnrtCFFttn0INOPATWACCICDEVAEVAD/AeV1VL/1L2L21LXII22L23LxVX1)(xPnXn2)(xPnXn3)(xPnXnnYXnPMB0K11.1EVAEconomicValueAdded20EVAEVA,EVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVANOPATNetOperatingProfitAfterTaxEVA21.2199390--EVA,EVAEVAEVAPMBOK2004EVAEVA31.32080510[1]1.3.180%30%35%8%10%2003460200484020051200,2010200020154.46262090HempleSigmaKCCAmeron30%[2][4][8]1.3.2VOCHAPS50%2008[3][6][7][17]1.3.34[15]1.3.45060235[5][10]1.3.5./70-8020.....905[9][12][13][14]1.3.6.....[10][16]1.4EVA1.4.1EVAEVA208080607090EVA69090202000EVA20()EVA400EVA[22][33]1.4.2EVAEVAEVAEVA2090EVA902523EVAEVAEVA[36][41]1.4.3EVAEVA30EVAEVAEVA2001EVAEVAEVA7EVAEVA2005EVAEVA2002EVAEVA[37]1.51.5.1PMBOK2004EVAEVAEVAEVAEVA,EVAEVA1.5.2EVAEVA8EVA1.5.311Fig.1TheframeworkofthesisEVAEVAEVAEVAEVA9EVA2.1EVA2.1.1EVAEVAEconomicValueAddedEVAEVAEVAEVA2.1.2EVAEVAEVA10EVANOPATNetOperatingProfitAfterTaxEVA=(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)1)(2.1)(2.1)=++++++-(2-2)2)=++++(2-3)EVA113=(2.4)=1(2-5)=+(2-6)2.1.EVAEVA160151)EVA2EVA34)EVA125)6)3EVA1232.1.4EVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVA[21][23][24][31][34][35][39][40][42]2.2EVAEVA1)EVAEVA2EVAEVAEVA133EVAEVAEVA4EVA2.3EVA2.3.1EVA1)EVAEVA2)EVAEVA20000.810.70.1EVAEVAEVA142.3.21)EVAEVA2)EVAEVAEVAEVAEVA3)EVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVA[34][37][44][45]153.1PMBOK2004EVA216[t3]2[t4]Fig.2TheProcedureofProjectcostmanagementEVAEVAEVA[38]173.23.2.1DCFNPVDCF:Discountingcashflow,∑==+=nttttrFCFDCF1)1((3-1)(3-1)nCFFttrDCFDCFDCFNPVDCFNPV(netpresentvalue):NPV,,01)1(IrFCFNPVntttt−+=∑==(3-2)(3-2)rtCFFttn0I18NPVFCFNPVNPVNPVDCF(NPVDCFIRRNPVNPVNPVFCF+FCFFCFFCFNPVNPVNPV[27][28][33]3.2.2IRRIRR(InternalRateofReturn):IRRIRR(NPV)(3-2)IRR190)1(.....)1(12210=+++++++−=nnrrrNPVIIII(3-3)rIRRIRR(I)NPV=0rrIRRNPV=I(0)=-$100,0001=I(1)=+$175,0002=I(2)=+$175,0003=I(3)=+$175,000NPV=0IRR=166%IRR1IRR0IRRIRRIRR,(3-3)IRRNPVIRR20WACC()IRRWACCNPVIRRIRRIRRIRR20WACC820%[30][33]3.2.3NPVIRRNPVNPV3.3EVA3.3.1EVAEVAEVAEVANOPATNetOperatingProfitAfterTaxWACCICNOPATEVA×−=(3-4)(3-4)NOPAT21WACCICNOPATICWACC[25][32][35][39][43]3.3.2EVANPVEVANPVEVAEVADEVA01)1(IrFCFNPVDEVAntttt−+==∑==(3-5)0IFCFtr0ID/AEVA1[t5]1EVAIII...n0IFCF1FCF2...FCFn1AD2AD...nADFCF1-1ADFCF2-2AD...FCFn-nAD0I0I-1AD...0I-(1AD+..1−nAD)EVAtFCF1-1AD-1IrFCF2-2AD-2Ir...FCFn-nAD-nIrtEVAEVAt=FCFt-tAD-tIr(3-6)22(3-6)tI=0I-(1AD+..1−tAD)(3-7)0I=1AD+2AD..+nAD(3-8)rEVAEVADEVA=∑==+nttttrEVA1)1(=∑==+−−nttttttrrIADFCF1)1(=−+∑==nttttrFCF1)1(∑==++ntttttrrIAD1)1((3-9),(8)(9)∑==++ntttttrrIAD1)1(=nnnrrIAAA)1(]1)1[()DD(D021+−++++Λ=0I(3-10)01)1(IrFCFNPVDEVAntttt−+==∑==(3-11)(3-11)DEVADCFEVANPVEVA[26]3.3.3EVA:1).EVA2).EVA3).EVAEVA234).EVAEVAEVAEVAEVAEVA1).EVAEVA2).EVA[24][27][28][31][39][46]3.4EVA3.4.1EVA[t6]EVAEVA2421VVVe+=(3-12)(3-12)eV1V2V232221121LLLLLLL+++=+=(3-13)(3-13)L/1L2L21L2522L23L1L21L22L23L∑+∞−−=xnxnnnnnxrPPPYxxxV)(1)()()(321(3-14)(3-14)xVX1)(xPnXn2)(xPnXn3)(xPnXnnYXnr(3-13)22L23LxV3-1321121LLLLL+=+=(3-15)[29]263.4.2EVAEVA3-4eVWACCLICNOPATEVA−×+−=)((3-16)EVAEVAeVLEVA27EVA90(PMBOK)EVAEVA4.14.1.13[18][19][20]3Fig.3TechnicalprocedureofmarinepaintproductionDisperseTankVibratorMixerTankProcess-TankEVA284.1.21992804000345112312020021)5080012)EVA29530-404.1.31.100/204000/2/60[t7]2.60801001203.4.2EVA3021.4000/3/45;2.1.9%;3.1.4000/2/60;;2.1.5%;3.100180300-8004.2WBS4.2.14WBSFig.4WBSofpaintproductionlineupgradeprojectEVA314.3EVAEVA3-16eeVWACCLICNOPLATEVA−×+−=)(EVAWACC8%.4.3.1()IC13RMB460,000,802