XXXX年三季度北京商铺物业市场_高力

北京商铺物业市场MarketOverview市场概览WhilethetotalstockofBeijing’smid-tohigh-endretailpropertymarketcontinuedtoexpandin3Q10,someretailersshowedsignsofslowingtheirpaceandobservingbusinessperformanceinexistingstoresinconventionalcatchments,reviewingstoreallocationstrategiescitywide.Onthewhole,theleasingmarketremainedactive,thoughtheinjectionofnewsupplyintothemarketliftedtheoverallvacancyrateandweigheddownonaveragerents.ThecatchmentsseeingthegreatestchangeintenancyduringthequarterwereLufthansaandZhongguancun.北京中高端物业市场总存量在2010年第三季度继续扩大。然而一些零售商已有放慢发展速度的迹象，并开始重新审视其位于传统商圈的现有门店之经营状况，以及品牌于全市范围内的布局策略。总体而言，尽管新增供应推升了整体空置率，并拉低了平均租金水平，但租赁市场仍然保持活跃。就商圈而言，燕莎商圈和中关村商圈在租赁方面变化最为明显。Supply供应Threeshoppingcentres–BHGWanliuMallandECMallinZhongguancuncatchmentandCARECityShoppingCentreintheOtherarea–werecompletedduringthequarter.ThenewcompletioninjectedatotalGFAof262,471sqmintothemarket,pushingthetotalstockoftheoverallmid-tohigh-endshoppingcentremarkettoexpandby6.85%q-o-q,to4,096,083sqmasofend-3Q10.Giventhenewsupply,atthesametimetheoverallvacancyoftheBeijingmid-tohigh-endshoppingcentresroseby0.99percentagepointsq-o-q,to15.25%.Ofallthecatchments,ZhongguancunandLufthansaregisteredthelargestincreaseinvacancyrates,up5.35and2.1percentagepointsq-o-q,respectively.Ontheotherhand,Wangfujing,DongzhimenandFinancialStreetmaintainedsatisfactoryorimprovedperformances,withvacancyratesfallingby0.44,0.57and2.0percentagepointsq-o-q,respectively.三个购物中心项目在季内正式开业，分别为中关村商圈的华联万柳购物中心和欧美汇购物中心，以及其他区域的首地大峡谷购物中心，总计为市场带来262,471平方米新增供应量。截至2010年第三季度末，北京中高端购物中心总存量达4,096,083平方米，环比增长6.85%。受新增供应影响，北京中高端购物中心整体空置率环比上升0.99个百分点至15.25%。各子商圈中，中关村和燕莎商圈录得空置率最大涨幅，分别按季上涨5.35和2.1个百分点。另一方面，王府井、东直门和金融街商圈市场表现保持良好或得以改善，空置率分别按季下降0.44、0.57和2.0个百分点。EcOnOMicindicatOrS经济指标MarkEtPErfOrMancE市场表现Q32010|retailchinaGdP*BeijingGdP*BeijingcPi**Bankrate*retailSales**disposableincome*consumptionExpenditure**SupplyVacancyrentscapitalValuesOverallcBdchaoyangmenJianguomenXidanWangfujingdongzhimenLufthansaZhongguancunfinancialStreetOthers11.1%12%1.7%5.4%***16.2%8.6%11%GrowthTrendsRentsVacancy*Dataasofend-2Q10**Dataasofend-Aug10***ActualrateSource:BeijingStatisticsBureau,PBOCThecatchmentsthatsawthegreatestchangeintenancyduringthequarterwereLufthansaandZhongguancun.TheKnowledgeReportBeijingOutLOOk展望★Althoughsomeoverseasretailersslowedtheirleasingactivities,Beijing’soverallretailleasingmarketremainedactivein3Q10,withdemandprimarilysourcingfromtheFMCG,jewellery,accessories,electronics,F&Bandeducationsectors.Duringthequarter,fashionbrandsi.tandJOOP!committedtoapproximately200and100sqm,respectively,atChaoyangJoyCity;ZARAtookup600sqmatU-Town;H&MandAsobiocommittedtoover400and200sqmatCARECityShoppingCentre,respectively;C&Aoccupiednearly1,000sqmatBHGWanliuMall.SuningElitesignedLOIswithboththeSeasonPlaceandCARECityShoppingCentre,withleasingareasofapproximately900and800sqm,respectively.Inaddition,BurgerKing,SubwayandYengKeeBakeryleasedspaceatU-Town,theMallatOrientalPlazaandRafflesCity,respectively.Demandfromtheeducationsectorwasontheriseinthisquarter,too,asevidencedbyNewOrientalKinderPlace’s,DisneyEnglish’sandGymboree’scommitmentsinthePlace,SOLANAandtheFulllinkPlaza,respectively.尽管一些海外零售商在租赁活动方面放缓了步伐，北京商铺租赁市场在2010年第三季度仍然表现活跃，需求主要来自于快速消费品、珠宝及配饰、电子产品、餐饮及教育等业态。季内，时尚品牌i.t和JOOP!分别在朝阳大悦城租赁200平方米和100平方米面积；ZARA在悠唐生活广场租赁600平方米面积；H&M和Asobio分别在首地大峡谷购物中心签约超过400平方米和200平方米面积；C&A在华联万柳购物中心租赁近1,000平方米面积。苏宁精品店分别与金融街购物中心和首地大峡谷购物中心签下约900平方米和800平方米面积。另，汉堡王、赛百味和澳门英记饼家分别与悠唐生活广场、东方新天地和来福士签约新店。来自教育业态的需求在本季内亦有上升，新东方儿童之家、迪士尼英语和金宝贝分别与世贸天街、SOLANA蓝色港湾和银座商城签订租约即是其中几例。rents租金TheaveragegroundfloorfixedrentinBeijing’smid-tohigh-endshoppingcentresfelltoRMB685.38psmpermonthin3Q10,down3.42%q-o-q.Thedecreaseresultedfromlowerrentsamidstnewentriesinemergingretailnodes.Inaddition,the6.08%q-o-qdecreaseinrentoftheCBDcatchmentwasalsoanothermainreasonfortheoverallrentaldecline.Similarly,theZhongguancuncatchmentfollowedsuitintheCBDinthisquarter,withaveragerentdecliningby3.98%q-o-q.Nevertheless,landlordsofcertainshoppingcentrescontinuedtoshowstrongconfidence,raisingrentalsonthebackofsustainedleasingdemandandsuccessfulcompletionofthenurturingperiods.Contrarytothetwoaforementionedareas,rentsintheXidan,Wangfujing,DongzhimenandFinancialStreetcatchmentsmarkedup,inarangefrom0.46%to8%q-o-q,respectively.Meanwhile,rentsforothercatchments,suchasChaoyangmenandJianguomen,remainedlargelystableinthisquarter.北京中高端购物中心首层平均固定租金下降至人民币685.38元每月每平方米，环比降低3.42%。租金下降主要为位于新兴零售节点的新增供应租金水平相对较低所致。同时，CBD商圈租金下降6.08%亦是导致整体租金降低的主要原因之一。中关村商圈平均租金同样有所下滑，环比降低3.98%。另一方面，一些购物中心业主表现了坚定的市场信心，持续增长的租赁需求和成功度过养商期促使其上调租金。与前述两个商圈相反，西单、王府井、东直门和金融街商圈租金均录得环比上升，增涨0.46%至8%不等。朝阳门和建国门商圈等的其他商圈在季内保持租金稳定。Chart2:BeijingMid-toHigh-EndShoppingCentreGroundFloorRentsbyCatchment图2：北京中高端购物中心首层租金Chart1:BeijingMid-toHigh-EndShoppingCentreNewSupply,NetAbsorptionandVacancyRates图1：北京中高端购物中心新增供应量、净吸纳量和空置率Source:Research,ColliersInternationalBeijing数据来源：北京高力国际调研部Source:Research,ColliersInternationalBeijing数据来源：北京高力国际调研部sqm|平方米NewSupply|新增供应量NetAbsorption|净吸纳量VacancyRates|空置率20%18%16%14%12%