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《》()20095。。。12×22UPS19973。、1997,UPS15,150,UPS。,,UPS87%。UPS,,(GriffinandLowenstein,2001)。,,,,“”“”(、,2006)。,50%,,(GriffinandLowenstein,2001)。,,。,(Tok-manetal.,2007;,2007)。,,,,,,,,。?,,,(,2007;Smithetal.,1999)。(Keaveney,1995;GriffinandLowenstein,2001;,2005),(McColloughetal.,2000;、*——□*:(、)(70229001);,(70672022);“211”。107--,2007)。Smith、BoltonWanger(1999),、;GriffinLowenstein,,。,Smith、BoltonWanger(1999),,,。,Smith(1999),,。,,,。,,,,(Thomas,2004)。,,,,;,;。、、(1)(Thomasetal.,2004;,2007)。(2)(Ping,1995),(TahtinenandHalinen-Kail,1997)。(3),、、(Hartetal.,1990)。“”。(4),、、(Hartetal.,1990)。“”。(5)、(Homburgetal.,2005)。(6)(MaxhamandNetemeyer,2002)。(7),、(LarsenandBastiansen,1991)。(8),(Xiaetal.,2004)。(9)(Parasuramanetal.,1991)。(10),(Zeithamletal.,1996)。Keaveney(1995)、、、、、、、9,30%,33%,9%。GriffinLowenstein(2001)5,:、、、,。,(2005),、。,,。,。,。Hart(1990),,..108--《》()200951SATt-1→It-1→SATt→It→SATt+1→It+1Sn1,n2。,,(Gilly,1987;Zeithaml,1996)。“”。Michel(2001),1.50(1=);,1.22。“”。MaxhamNetemeyer(2002),,“”,,、。、“”。Anderson(1973),,,,“”。Smith(1999),,(、),,。,,,(GoodwinandRoss,1992),,(Max-hamIII,2001)。,,。,。“”。McCollough(2000),,。MaxhamIII(2001),,、,“”。Andreassen(2001),,,“”。,,“”“”。,。,;,,(,2006)。Tax(1998),。:,,;,,,。Smith、BoltonWanger(1999)“”。,,、,,。,()。Oliver(1980):It=f(It-1,SAT,ATTt),,(It)3:(1);(2);(3)。LaBarberaMazursky(1983),。,,。Oliver(1980),/:Pt+1=f(It-1,SAT,It),,(Pt+1)3:(1);(2);(3)。Oliver(1980)LaBarberaMazursky(1983),,(1)。Pt-1、Pt、Pt+13,、3109--。SATt-1It-1(Pt-1);SATtIt(Pt);SATt+1It+1(Pt+1)。2,Sn1,Sn2。:(,Pt-1),(SATt-1)(It-1)。(,Pt),,。,。(Pt+1),,、(Sn1)(Sn2)。,、,。,,,,。(2)。(1)It=f1(SATt,It-1,SATt-1)。(It)3:()(SATt-1);()(It-1);(SATt)。(2)SATt+1=f2(It,Sn)。(SATt+1):,。(3)It+1=f3(SATt+1)。(It+1):(SATt+1)。,。1:Pt;Pt+1。:It/≈It/;SATt+1/SATt+1/;It+1/It+1/:,(It+1≤It)。,(11%),,,。(It+1>It),,,(2),,。2:,,、。:SATt+1/Sn1SATt+1/Sn2;It+1/Sn1It+1/Sn23:,,。:SATt+1/Sn2SATt+1/Sn1;It+1/Sn2It+1/Sn14:,(a);(b),。:(a)SATt+1/Sn1SATt-1/Sn1;It+1/Sn1It-1/Sn1;(b)SATt+1/Sn2SATt-1/Sn2;It+1/Sn2It-1/Sn2。(AndersonandSullivan,1993;Andersonetal.,1994;Pattersonetal.,1997)。,:Brandr(1997) ! #$ % &