我国房地产价格上涨的原因及对经济的影响研究

华中科技大学硕士学位论文我国房地产价格上涨的原因及对经济的影响研究姓名：廖昊萌申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：田映华20080523II19982007199820063119982007IIIAbstractOntheoneside,thisthesisresearchedthereasonofrealestateprice’sboom,andpointedoutthewaythatgovernmentimplementsmacro-control.Ontheotherside,thisthesisresearchedtheimpactoneconomyfromrealestateprice’sboom,andclarifiedtheneedofgovernment’smacro-control.Firstly,thethesisresearchedtheimpactoneconomyfromrealestateprice’sboom,whichwillcauseimbalanceofgrossdemand,inflationandseriousfinancialrisk.Throughtheregressionofthequarterlydatafrom1998to2007,thethesisprovedtheimportanteffectwhichrealestate’spricetakestoinflation.Fromtheresearchthethesisdrawaconclusion:thegovernmentneedtomacrocontroltherealestateprice.Then,fromtwosidesofdemandandsupplythethesisanalyzedvariousfactorswhichcausedtherealestateprice’srisingfrom1998to2007.Demandfactorsincludedwellingdemandsandinvestdemands.Supplyfactorsincludelocalgovernment’smonopolyonground,developer’sareaoligarchcahoots,developer’sstockingupgroundandsalelimiting.ThefirsttwofactorscausedhighnaturalmonopolyinChineserealestatemarketwhichisthemostimportantreasonofrealestatemarketlackingsupply.Afterthetheoryanalysis,thethesisresearchedthepaneldatain31provincesfrom1998to2006,andcomputedLenarIndex,whichcanbeanevidenceofhighmonopoly.Throughresearchingthereasonofrealestateprice’sboom,thethesiscananswerhowtoimplementrealestatemacrocontrol.Finally,thethesisgavethreepolicybasedonthepracticalcondition:taxcontrolpolicy,indemnificatoryhousecontrolpolicyandpricelimitingpolicy.KeyWords:RealEstatePriceInflationFinancialRiskInvestmentDemandI______“√”111.1GDP1923192620302080971997199720051548714524469114199828019942005200631.2Geoffreyp.Meen199019641980EddieChi-manHuiJoeTak-yunWong200720Poterba199139Quigley199941JamesBerryStanleyMcgrealSimonStevensonJamesYoung2001AliAnariJamesKolari2002ARDLShiller200340.9TakatoshiIto1995802005141414200651214200520071991-200552005GDPGoodhartHofmann200012CPICPIGoodhaa2001KontnonikasMontagnoli2002CPICPIKentLowe2000MaryRiddel1998SantaBarbaraSouthCoastMargaretHwangSmithGarySmith2006620063110.132006M211.310.432GoodhartCecchettiFrankSmetsJosephCarson1.2.720071.38PanelModel1.4PanelModel922.1199819981998198719961019961997121998732310199819988.4200724.731998216220074140199854252007137862001200630%80%20021.22020031.428%80112.2122006520062013200572118.276518.11220057.0200520054468.549900032200573898948.9DIFA200587.2100102005211919454.18RREEF2.254500200578200515%142003965052004390082005111.14200631.2320073,1.261533.1(1)6(2)()11(3)(4)1650506020088100/6000/2000/1720071020062.4101100020062.41.324120012007521.6212.9618LernerDegreeofMonopolyPower(entropyindex)Atkinson(HHI).1934,L=(P-MC)/P=-1/Ed,EdPMCMR=dqdTR=[]dqqqpd*)(=p(q)+qdqqdp)(=p(q)+dqqdpqpq)(*)(1=p(q)−dE11(3.1)MRMCMR=MCp(q)−dE11(3.2)L=PMCP−=dE1,19MR0MR=MCp(q)−dE110⇒−dE110(3.3)dE1,Ed1(markup):11L01P=MCL0L3.21998200631PanelData3.2.1PanelData20(fixedeffects)lnDEMitilnPRIitlnINCitUit(3.4)DEMPRIINCDEMPRIINCGLS3.2.2199819981998200631199920073.2.3Eviews5.0199820069279PanelData3.13.1PanelModel:LOG(DEM?):PooledEGLS(Cross-sectionweights):03/29/08:17:21:19982006:921:31:279tC5.1751440.35303214.659130.0000LOG(PRI?)-1.0316310.105283-9.7986870.0000LOG(INC?)2.2947330.09304724.662040.0000()_BJ--C-0.358646_TJ--C-0.539986_HERB--C0.443383_SHX--C-0.216657_NMG--C0.107019_LN--C1.151433_JL--C0.127349_HLJ--C0.649582_SH--C-0.134991_JSU--C1.172621_ZJ--C0.289235_AH--C0.831620_JXI--C0.160766_FJ--C0.469075_SD--C1.025825_HERN--C0.696118_HUB--C0.72058022_HUN--C0.211936_GD--C0.589894_GX--C-0.182805_HAIN--C-1.687060_CQ--C0.492728_SCH--C1.305738_GZH--C0.027386_YN--C-0.097328_XZ--C-4.268623_SX--C0.318763_GS--C-0.557240_QH--C-1.885580_NX--C-0.736221_XJ--C-0.125914R0.99978935.16845R0.99976217.740900.27377118.43779F36473.781.827362F0.000000R20.999789tFp0D-W21/1.03=0.972345104.120064.1904.1//82807452001997837.32556230040980323.52461221490926823.920074.137.323.523.910200720063367/903030302006117592006303030/1175925.8244.1GDP2580742006GDP50.020GDP64.950.01986200615GDP50.536.41451192006/4.2CPI2007CPI4.83200812CPI7.18.71026200420072007200423CPI2007CPI4.34.3.1Smets(1997)CPIM219982007CPItCM2t-1HPRIt-1SINDt-1Ut(4.1)CPICM2M2HPRISINDM2HPRISIND4.3.21998199831998120073CPI19982200744.3.3Eviews5.027CPIADF4.24.2CPIADF4.2ADF6.615%3.56CPIM2ADF4.34.3M2ADFNullHypothesis:M2hasaunitrootExogenous:ConstantLagLength:0(AutomaticbasedonSIC,MAXLAG=9)t-StatisticProb.*AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistic11.573091.0000Testcriticalvalues:1%level-3.6155885%level-2.94114510%level-2.6090664.3ADF11.575%2.94M2NullHypothesis:CPIhasaunitrootExogenous:Constant,LinearTrendLagLength:7(AutomaticbasedonSIC,MAXLAG=9)t-StatisticProb.*AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistic-6.6135460.0000Testcriticalvalues:1%level-4.2845805%level-3.56288210%level-3.21526728HPRIADF4.44.4HPRIADFNullHypothesis:HPRIhasaunitrootExogenous:ConstantLagLength:3(AutomaticbasedonSIC,MAXLAG=9)t-StatisticProb.*AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistic3.1341981.0000Testcriticalvalues:1%level-3.6329005%level-2.948