新船价格波动机理的研究

江苏科技大学硕士学位论文新船价格波动机理的研究姓名：杨尚领申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：林滨20070101I,,(1)(2)(3)ABSTRACTIIResearchofTheShipPriceFluctuatingMechanismABSTRACTThecontentofthispaperisthenewshippricefluctuatingmechanism.Theresearchcontainstwosections:theshippricetransformingdisciplinarianandactionsystem.Tostudythismechanism,thispaperfindsthefactorswhataffectthenewshippriceandhowthosefactorsinfluencetheshipprice.Byanalyzingtheshipprice’sstructureandtransformingdisciplinarian,ontheonehand,theresearchcanenrichtheresearchoftheshippricefluctuatingmechanism,ontheotherhand,theresearchcanmakeadirectsustainfortheshipbuildingindustry.Theshipyardcangetthemostprofitshipbuildingorderinthemostsuitabletime,withthebestprice,inthemostsuitablegatheringmanner.Byobservingthefluctuationoftheshipprice,thispaperfindsthefactorswhatinfluencetheshippriceandthosefactors’actionsystem.Thenbasedontheaboveanalysis,thispaperbuildsthenewshippricepredictmodel.Themaincontentsofthispaperare:(1)Theshipprice’sfunctionandcontent.Thispaperintroducesmanyfunctionsoftheshippriceandthecompositionoftheshipbuildingprice:costandprofit.Thenthispaperanalyzesthefactorswhatinfluencethecost.(2)Theanalysisoftheshipbuildingpricefluctuatingmechanism.Byobservingthenewshipprice’sfluctuation,thispaperfindstheimportantfactorswhatinfluencetheshippriceandhowthosefactorsinfluencetheshipprice.(3)Theshippricepredictmodel.Thispaperbuildstheshippricepredictmodeltomakesurethattheanalysisoftheaboveiscorrect.Keywords:shippricefluctuatemechanismanalysispredict11.1201025%201535%100%,,[1][2][3][4][1][2][5][6][7][8][9][10][20][21]19945FPSFPS2FPSL1*B1*H1L2*B2*H2LBH,3(theshipbuildingindustryaguidetohistoricalrecordsbyL.A.Ritchie)theindustryofshipbuildingbygeorgej.bruceLecturerinMarineProductionTechnology,UniversityofNewcastleandIangarrardLLP,19991.2(4)(5)(6)(7)4,,52.12.1.1[12]=[24](1)(2)6(3)(4)2.1.2[1](shipprice)CostPrice,PcFixedCost,CfCirculatingCostCcPc=Cf+Cc-S+TSSubsidyT(Taxations)CostPricewithProfitPp5%10%20%Pp=Cf+Cc-S+r+TrProfitMinPricePminPmin=Pc-Cb=Cf+Cc-S+T-CbCcCb0CbContributionCb0BiddingPricePbOfficePrice&CounterofferPricePoPt7MaxPricePmaxlawofindifferenceMarketingPricePmPminPmPmaxReasonablePricePr2.22.2.1..[24]82.2.2A.[24][11]2.2.3[12]()92.1[23],,,;;;;;,;[24][1]10[1][27]2.32.3.1CVMC+V+M(1)(2)(3)(4)(1)(2)(3)(4)[12]11(1)(2)[21]DirectCostsofaCostObjectcosttracingIndirectCostsofaCostObject(3)(4)[12]12CCCT=++1CCCT[2]CCCCCCC=+++++2CCCCCCC11CCCCH=++3C1C1CH23423CCCCCHCH=++++42C3C4C2C3C2CH3CH54CCCH=+55C4CH65CCCH=+66C5CH76CCCH=+7137C6CH17.5kg19kg1.50%1.72%100%24%28%42%46%12%15%6%8%8%10%40%20%22%18%20%7%8%8%12%100%65%70%2%3%7%8%8%9%14%15%2.3.2142.3.3(1)15(2)45%5%~6%202020202025%+25%+25%+25%101010304040%+30%+10%+10%+10%50006%2.2%3333320+20+20+20+20202020202025+25+25+252525252510+10+10+30+40101010304040+30+10+10+1040301010102020202020110001000(11.5%)1000(13%)1000(14.5%)1000(16%)P=+×++×++×++×+25%+25%+25%+25%212501250(11.5%)1250(13%)1250(16%)P=+×++×++×+1610101030403500500(11.5%)500(13%)1500(14.5%)2000(16%)P=+×++×++×++×+40%+30%+10%+10%+10%420001500(11.5%)500(13%)500(14.5%)500(16%)P=+×++×++×++×+1P=5150()2P=5131.25()3P=5210()4P=5090()1122(1)(1)...(1)nnPNPVxNPVxNPVx=×++×++++NPVP500040%+30%+10%+10%+10%2.3(%)100107109~11217IMOMARPOLAnnexCSRAnnex20055CSR20062005613IACSCEOCSRCSRCSRIACSCSRIACSIMOIMO2005200820064CSRCSR4%9%3%5%2.4CSR[25]VLCC3%4%3005007%5%3%3%6%182.4(1)(2)193.13-119802005W198811003.1[13](1)198019851973197980GDP19802.5%19820.6%(2)198619911987198919880501001502001980198319861989199219951998200120041988.1=100201991162319921999(199419951993134140)199116119991071998(-1.1%)1997199814021130119984200020001782000200020012001200220022.8%2.1%20014.6%911200191120022002IMO21200590002010200820061004VLCC80025/26102000223.119801985198013619858817080219791980(3)19861991(1)(2)(3)1992199919921994199419961999107(1)(2)(3)(4)19981999(5)200020012000200291120012002(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)20083.2[1]236070803.324[2](1)200420045%309.4%9.1%20045%304.4%3.52.49.46.262004109200385253.2GDP19901991199219931994199519961997155162148146134140133131705562621068598891998199920002001200220032004200511110711410810611915016253749851648510991Y=120.23+0.16XR=0.150.16198019812.5%1.9%136135(2)20034.520047.520042003200420909020047.520037.0909200120010.520047.5200320041520041110383.836.55000204.81.1325002004263.31996199719981999200020012002200320047.0%10.4%4.4%5.9%12.5%0.1%3.1%4.5%9.1%200420037019732004200428072/37525/33.72004VLCC5500061000/200334000/31000/5286200377105LNGLPG273.41998-2004111998199920002001200220032004520041130dwtVLCC72506900760070006350770090001050015dwt4400425052504650437551506000680011dwt345033004150360034754150510057507dwt31003100350032003125375041004.7dwt2500260029502630270031503600385017dwt330035004050360036304800560063004000TEU50005200450056506600(3)[28]283.519901059610015519911081001091621992110102117148199311210512714619941161091331341995120113138140199612511615713319971291221611311998132121167111199913612317310720001351291801142001138130188108200214513019410620031491451991192004152155210150200515516322316219900.380.1612278.71563.26