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/2009.320089,,。(BearStearns)、(MerrillLynch)(LehmanBrothers),(GoldmanSachs)(MorganStanley)①。,60%5。?,,。,,。、2008915,,。()2007,,。5。2007498.3,,3,5,20071989。2008,2。2007473(1)。20081200753%,21,7%,370%。:。,。,475(2)。,20083,1000。。:,2008。,、,,。,。,。::F831:A:,、;,。①,。。,。43/2009.3(),、。20089,。20089171,50%,75%。20089,50%。UFJ(MitsubishiUFJFinancialGroupInc.)1(2008102),59%。,2008917180,62.190.13,99.79%。①()、5,。20083,,。2008915,,,29,12/3,2007。2008921,,,(),。929,UFJ9021%,(3)。560%,,,、、、、。,7.5%(1)。,20089。5、,。②1()2007Q3---22.4----2007Q4-8.54-98.3---35.92008Q1---19.6----2008Q2---48.9-28.7--2008Q3---51.5-39---8.54-240.7-67.7-35.9:。2()2007Q3--84--2007Q412150--2008Q11490182008Q2--94562008Q3--5778264751529.4--94----30--7.75--11103.448.75:。①[N].②AndrewRossSorkinandVikasBajaj,ShiftforGoldmanandMorganMarkstheEndofanEra,NYTimes[N],September21,2008.320083200892008920089UFJ:《》[N](NYTimes)。 !#1200644/2009.3、,,?———?(),。:(Repo)。(CommercialPapers),39。、、,。、、。,,。,、、,。,,,,。,,,,。2007,。,,,。,,Libor80,9·11。《》,2008930,8400,6200,11%,3,61,。①20089,。,,,,。。,。():,,;,;,。1.IPO、、,,,。5,4:、、、。,。,10。()(),“”。45,5(InterestandDividends)(PrincipalTransac-tion),、,。2000,,①Leaders.WorldontheEdge[J].TheEconomist,2008(October4th),P.11.45/2009.341998199920002001200220032004200520062007N.A0.410.470.410.260.210.230.390.470.660.600.510.550.610.590.530.590.670.690.970.830.750.740.740.700.580.540.610.670.730.650.520.570.670.630.570.590.640.67N.A0.680.500.530.570.500.460.390.480.510.52:51999~2007,N.A。1998199920002001200220032004200520062007N.A0.410.470.410.260.210.230.390.470.660.600.510.550.610.590.530.590.670.690.970.830.750.740.740.700.580.540.610.670.730.650.520.570.670.630.570.590.640.67N.A0.680.500.530.570.500.460.390.480.510.525:51999~2007,N.A。450%,10%,。2007,380%~90%,97%。10,。/、/,。2007,。2.3,(Asset-backedSecurity,ABS)、(CollateralizedDebtObli-gation,CDO)(CreditDefaultSwap,CDS)。,2006,11%。,CDO500。。,:。199516900200645080,167%。,1995~2000641.8%,2001~2006676%,GDP。2001~2006,20%。,,,MBS,ABS、CDO、CDS,。,。,,。,,(MarkettoMarket)(MarkettoModel),(MarkettoMakeBelieve)。。——,,。CDS(DepositoryTrust&ClearingCorp.),,CDS720。,4000。,52。,。,(CounterpartyRisk),、,、。,,,CDS46/2009.3651998199920002001200220032004200520062007N.A30.628.929.329.123.723.924.426.230.7N.A32.829.83329.028.428.527.128.98.127.9270.23.021.819.716.620.019.121.631.9N.AN.AN.A17.118.716.124.625.223.426.222.521.621.923.224.224.226.530.8N.AN.A:5。75(PRE-TAXPROFITMARGIN)1998199920002001200220032004200520062007N.A30.628.929.329.123.723.924.426.230.7N.A32.829.83329.028.428.527.128.98.127.9270.23.021.819.716.620.019.121.631.9N.AN.AN.A17.118.716.124.625.223.426.222.521.621.923.224.224.226.530.8N.AN.A:5。10~20。3.,“”,,。。。,,,,。5,2030,200133,(BankofAmeri-ca)11。A,10,30290,300。5%,A15,150%!130。,5,(6、7)。,5%,A15,。,5%,,2007-114.1%,。,。(),,。2090,,,。1999《》2004。《》。,,CDO、CDS、。,,。2004,———,。。,。,(U.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommis-sion,SEC)(ChristopherCox)2008923,:“,《》(theGramm-Leach-BlileyAct)。47/2009.3①ChristopherCox,“TestimonyConcerningTurmoilinU.S.CreditMarkets:RecentActionsRegardingGovernmentSponsoredEntities,InvestmentBanksandOtherFinancialInstitutions”,。(CDS)。58(2006),SECCDS,。”①CDS,。,。,。,。、,,、、,,()。,。,,,。,、、5,?、、。:(),,。、、,,、、、。、,,,,,,、,。,,,。,,、。,、,,,,。,,88%,,(8)。,,,,,,。(),。,,(1999),,,。2007,(、、)48/2009.38200543%1%45%、、、、9%1%1%27%1%37%16%19%38%20%、15%12%15%43%、18%5%20%9%5%:2005。①2007。69.7%。①,,,。,1999《》,。。,。、。,、,。(),,———。,、,。,,,,。,。,,。99%。,1020。,,。,,,、,。,、、20。,,。,。,,,。(),,。,《》8%,,(12)。,,、、、。,(8)。49/2009.3①、、、、、、8。,,、,,,。,,,。(),:,、,,,。,《》,、。,(SEC)、,。、()、,:,,,、。1998、,。2003,,,2007,,,。2008,,。,,,,。(),2090,(、)2090,,5。,、IPO,,“”。2001~20052008,,200530。20083,8200740%。①()。,。。,、。,,、,。()、,、、。,。,CDO、CDS。:,50/2009.3:[1].CDS[N].,2008107.[2],,.[M].,1998.[3]、.[4]Ritter,JR.InvestmentBankingandSecuritiesIssuance,HandbookoftheEconomicsofFinance[M].2003.[5]WorldontheEdge,theEconomist[J].Oct.4th,2008.Abstract:ThispaperexploresthecausesoftheU.S.investmentbankingcrisisanditstransitionin2008byanalyzingtheflawsofinvestmentbankingbusinessmodelintheU.S.ItarguesthattheinternalcausesofU.S.investmentbankingcrisisarethedefectsoftheirfinancingmodeandover-relianceonhighly-riskyinvestments.Andtheexternalconditionisthelackofsupervisionwhichinducesinvestmentbankinglaissez-fairemanagement.ThetransitionoftheWallStreetgiantsfromspecializedinvestmentbankingtouniversalbankingisreasonableandinevitablemainlybecauseoftherelativeadvantagesofuniversalbanking.Keywords:InvestmentBanks;FinancialCrisis;UniversalBanking;U.S.Banks。(),,。,,,,,,。,、,,,。(:)51
本文标题:美国投资银行危机及其转型剖析
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