中美贸易摩擦的博弈分析框架_以轮胎特保案为例

502Vol.50No.220103JilinUniversityJournalSocialSciencesEditionMar.,20103,:3[]2009,,,,[];;;[]2009-10-09[],,(100732)2009911,926,3,4%,35%30%25%,,,,(),,,,,,,,,92(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,:,2008,2007217%[1],,421,,,:,,(,AFLCIO),25241300,AFLCIO,,18,,16[2],,20099,,,,,,,7890,:,,,03Mayer;[3]Hillman;[4]FindlayWellisz;[5]Magee,Nash;[6]GrossmanHelpman,,;[7]GomoryBaumol,,,,,[8],Evans,:,,[9],,,,,,,,,[10],[11],[12],[13][14],,,[15],WTO[16],,,():(i=1)(i=2)A,,,Ac1(c10),0p1(Q)=1-Q,Q=Q1+Q2,A,Q1Q2ACS1,11,12,(01)(bargainingability,),,,131(011),1,,b2,,,,,A,,,(),,,,B,:,,,b2(0,b2],b2;,,,(b2),,,G1=1CS1+11+12,:MaxG1=1CS1+11+12(),:11=(p1-c1)Q1=(1-c1-Q)Q112=(p1-b2)Q2=(1-b2-Q)Q2(1)(1),:511/5Q1=1-c1-2Q1-Q2=0512/5Q2=1-b2-Q1-2Q2=0(2):Q=2-c1-b23,Q1=1-2c1+b23,Q2=1+c1-2b23,11=(1-2c1+b2)29,12=(1+c1-2b2)29,CS1=Q22=(2-c1-b2)218,Q10,c11/2,Q20,b2(1+c1)/2,b2(1+c1)2G1=1CS1+11+12=118[1(2-c1-b2)2+2(1-2c1+b2)2]+218(1+c1-2b2)25G15b2=0,:b2=4(+c1+c1)+(2-c1)-22+8+1(3)(1)5b25c1=4(+1)-18+1+20,(c1),,(b1),,(2)5b25=12[2-c1-1(1-c1)](8+1+2)20,(),23(b1),,,,,,(,,),(3)5b251=6(1+2)(1-c1)(8+1+2)20,,(1),(b1),()1.,(1),,,,,;,(c01)(2),,,,(1),,,,,,;,(b2=b),(3),,,(),;(4),,,E21(),X21(),c11,c12;,,(5),;,,(6),,E21,X12;,,c21c221,r1-r733,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,12.(1):E21-c21(2+16+31)(1-c1)2(2-1)/[4(2+8+1)2]X12+c22(1-c1)2(2-1)/(2+8+1)2(4)(2):X121-77c22-(1-c1)2(2-1)2(2+8+1)2(5)(3):(2+1)1-14(1-21)(1-c1)(2-1)81-6(1-7)6[7X12-(1-7)c22]+E12-2+18(6):116-6[7E21+(1-7)c21]+X21(1-6+67)(1-c1)2,(,),,,:E12(1-c1)2(2-1)2(1-6+67)(2+8+1)2-67X12+6(1-7)c22X21(1-c1)2(1-6+67)16-(4+1)2(2+8+1)2-67E21-6(1-7)c21(7)(4):(1-c1)(2-1)81-5+56(1-7)c12-56[7X12-(1-7)c22]+4(1-5)E12-2+18(8)43,,,[e-mail]()1.(c1),(10),,(),,2.,,,,,(1),(8),;(c1),(8),,,;(),,,??,(8),,(8),,,,,??,,,(6),(6),,(7)?,,,,(),,,,;,,,,3.((4)),,(5),(5),,,,c22=0,X120(5),?,,53,,,,,,,,7:,9%15%,,,,,,,3,;48,,;72,WTO,;,,,;,(),,[][1]:,,2009917,B8[2]FeldmanEJ:,,2009917,C14[3]MayerW.EndogenousTariffFormation,AmericanEconomicReview,1954,74:970-985.[4]HillmanAL.Thepoliticaleconomyofprotection,London:Harwood,1989.[5]FindlayR,WelliszS.EndogenousTariffs,thePoliticalEconomyofTradeRestrictionsandWelfareEffects,inBhagwatiNJ(eds.)ImportCompetitionandResponse,Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress,1982.[6]MageeSP,BrockWA,YOUNGL.BlackHoleTariffsandEndogenousPolicyFormation,Boston:MITPres,1989.[7]GrossmanGM,HelpmanE.InterestGroupsandTradePolicy,Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress,2002.[8]GomoryRE,BaumolWJ.GlobalTradeandConflictingNationalInterests,Boston:MITPress,2001.[9]EvansP,JacobsonHK,PutnamRD(eds).Double2EdgedDiplomacy:InternationalBargainingandDomesticPolitics,LosAngeles:UniversityofCaliforniaPress,1993.[10]::,:,2002[11]:,,19979[12]::,,20011[13]:,,20037[14]::,,20044[15]:,(),20043[16]:WTO,,20055[:]63