国家特征视角下中国产业内贸易决定因素实证研究

2009532000200720002007,:,,,;,;,,1.;2.:F752:A:100726964[2009]052081202210753:(:05JJD790087)::,20084,39,2007,85,2080,,,,,,,,,,,,(Brlhart,M.,2004),,,,,,,2080,LoertscherWolter(1980)13;2120095Bergstrand(1983)14;BalassaBauwens(1987)38;HubertGabrisch(2003)20,,:,(2006);(2007),JianhongZhang(2005);(2008);,(2002);(2008),,,(ThomMcdowell,1999)20002007,,1.2060,GrubelLloyd(1975)Aquino(1978),,1994Brlhart,:Ai=1-|Xi-Mi||Xi|+|Mi|100(1),AiiBrlhart,XiMiiAi0100,Ai,,Ai0,,Ai,,Ai100,,:A=ni=1|Xi|+|Mi|ni=1(|Xi|+|Mi|)(2)Brlhart,,,ThomMcdowell1999,Brlhart,,(2),,:At=1-|ni=1Xi-ni=1Mi|ni=1|Xi|+ni=1|Mi|(3)200020078,,,,ThomMcdowell,2.:11,60%,(UNCOMTRADE),(HS),HS,97(77)2003HS1996,20042007HS200231:,20081,1520095,UNCOMTRADE(),11UNCOMTRADE:,,7,1:(IIT)(HIIT),(VI2IT),,Balassa1986:,,GDP,,,2:IITHIIT,VI2ITHelpmanKrugman(1985),:,,,DGDP,13:IITHIITVIIT,,(characteristic),(quality),,BalassaBauwens(1988),PIN,14:IITHIIT,VI2IT,,,,IITHIIT,HelpmanKrugman(1985),,,,,DPIN,15:IITHIITVIIT(FDI),(),;,(GrubelLloyd,1975;GreenawayMilner,1986),11,FDI,6:IITHIITVIIT,,,,,,Balassa(1986),GDP,TOUNCOMTRADE,GDP(),,GDP7:IITHIITVIITGrubel2Lloyd,,4120095:TIMB=|Xi-Mi|/(Xi+Mi)(4)TIMB,XiMiXiMi1IITHIITVIIT(GDP)++?(DGDP)--+(PIN)+++(DPIN)--+(FDI)???(TO)+++(TIMB)---:171.,LoertscherWolter(1980)Logit,0100GreenawayMilner(1986),,Logit,Balassa(1986),OLSLogitLogistic,,:lnYit+0+a1lnGDPit+2lnDGDPit+3lnPINit+4lnDPINit+5lnFDIit+6TOit+7lnTIMBit+it(5),i,t,YIITHIITVIIT,,,3,,,,,,,F,(OLS),Hausman2.:2000200320042007,,Eviews6.020002003IITHIITVIIT,20042007IITHIITVIIT6,23,FHausman,,,20042007(R2),,5;2004200710%(F),51%,112,20002003,FDI10%,FDI,1%,(GDP)(DGDP),,,(PIN)(DPIN),,(TO)20002003,PINDPIN1%,,TIMB1%,GDP,FDI(0.076616),,FDIDGDP5120095220002003IITHIITVIIT8.197688333(4.725081)10.31902333(4.913789)8.520739333(3.409872)GDP0.136624(0.673173)0.190209(0.787611)-0.016768(-0.063880)DGDP-0.059330(-0.326555)0.166805(0.799989)0.201433(1.008656)PIN-1.293096(-1.326131)-5.249445333(-4.171402)-1.587454(-1.147504)DPIN0.946209(1.275505)3.865073333(3.937101)1.390614(1.374912)FDI-0.1326003(-1.878152)0.076616(0.827919)-0.463602333(-4.196189)TO-0.165308(-0.137514)0.680774(0.457969)-1.145453(-0.910645)TIMB-0.188955333(-3.907899)-0.259744333(-4.153158)-0.101915(-1.539196)Cross2section2F8.3038893331.8356431.482770Hausman9.250873R20.4324700.5881670.591163R20.3221170.5080880.511667F3.9189713337.3448703337.436391333DW1.8387911.6528172.024347444444:t,333,33,31%,5%,10%320042007IITHIITVIIT8.57685133(2.640485)7.2325823(1.892726)5.35478033(2.095221)GDP0.402429(1.339256)0.50079333(2.177168)0.332597(1.622690)DGDP-0.052290(-0.476417)-0.132321(-1.266016)-0.117358(-1.271131)PIN-1.676238(-0.914560)-4.0479243(-1.843397)0.677494(0.475856)DPIN0.990447(0.724369)2.757516(1.639426)-0.916173(-0.870637)FDI-0.112652(-0.978115)0.32232533(2.662363)-0.086970(-0.869693)TO-1.078473(-0.849133)-0.382654(-0.272275)-1.740236(-1.507316)TIMB-0.22786233(-2.398944)-0.23743733(-2.638372)-0.15739433(-2.127008)Cross2section2F2.366553331.6233961.303595Hausman6.344992R20.2946570.4641940.550098R20.1575070.3600100.462617F2.14843234.4555033336.288195333DW2.7822981.3177961.856995444444:2TO,,20002003,FDI1%,FDIGDP(-0.016768),DGDPDPIN,,,HelpmanKrugman(1985),PINTO,6120095TIMB,,3,20042007,TIMB5%,,,20002003GDPDGDPPINDPINTOFDI,,20002003,20042007GDP5%,PIN10%,DPIN,FDI5%,,FDITIMB5%,DGDPHelpmanKrugman(1985),TO20042007,TIMB5%,DGDPDPINTOGDP,PINFDI(-0.086970),20042007FDI,,,,,3;,,,,,,1.ThomMcdowell,,:3,,20002003,20042007;FDI,FDI,,,;,,20042007,,,2.(1),,,,;,,,,(2),,,,,(3),,,,,71,,20095(4);,,,[1]Aquino.Intra-industrytradeandintra-industryspecializa2tionasconcurrentsourcesofinternationaltradeinmanufac2tures[J].WeltwirtschaftlichesArchiv,1978,114:2752296.[2]Balassa,B.andL.Bauwens.ChangingTradePatternsinManufacturedGoods:AnEconometricInvestigation[J].North2Holland:Amsterdam,1988.[3]Balassa,B.Intra-industrySpecialization:aCross-countryAnalysis[J].EuropeanEconomicReview,1986,30:27242.[4]Balassa,BelaandBauwens,Luc.Intra-IndustrySpecializa2tioninaMulti2countryandMulti-industryFramework[J].RoyalEconomicSociety,1987,97(388):923239.[5]Brlhart,M.,Elliott,R.andLindley,J.Intra2IndustryTradeandLabour-marketAdjustment:AReassessmentUsingDataonIndividualWorkers[J].Miero,UniversityofLausanne/U2niversityofBirmingham/UniversityofSheffield,2004.[6]Brlhart,M.MarginalIntra-IndustryTrade:MeasurementandRelevanceforPatternofIndustrialAdjustment[J].WeltwirtschaftlichesArchiv,1994,130(3):600-613.[7]Greenaway,D.andMilner,C.R.TheEconomicsofIntra2In2dustryTrade[J].Oxford:Blackwell,1986.[8]Grubel,H.G.,P.J.Lloyd.Intra-industryTrade:theThe2oryandMeasurementofInternationalTradeinDifferentiatedProducts[J].London:Macmillan,1975.[9]Helpman,E.andKrugman,P.MarketStructureandForeignTrade:IncreasingReturns,ImperfectCompetitionandtheIn2ternationalEconomy[J].Cambridge,Mass:MITPress,1985.[10]HubertGabrischandMariaLuigiaSegnana.VerticalandHori2zontalPatternsofIntra2industryTradeBetweenEUandCandi2dateCountries[R].IWH,April2003:5232.[11]JianhongZhangetal.ChineseBilateralIntra2industryTrade:APanelDataStudyfor50Countriesinthe19922001Period[J]