我国玉米进口贸易现状及其影响因素分析

河南科技大学经济学院本科毕业论文I我国玉米进口贸易现状及其影响因素分析摘要玉米是重要的粮食作物，它不仅是动物主要的饲料来源，而且是人类重要的工业原料，一种主要的可再生能源作物，在现代经济发展过程中发挥的作用越来越大。我国地处世界三大黄金玉米带之一，无论种植面积还是总产量都仅次于美国，是世界第二大玉米生产国，同时我国也是玉米消费大国之一。新世纪以来，我国一直都是玉米净出口国家，由于近年来我国玉米价格高，玉米品质较差和我国玉米产业的快速发展等国内因素，及人民币升值、外资炒作等国际因素，致使我国玉米进口量越来越大，直到2010年我国成为玉米净进口国，这是新世纪以来我国玉米贸易的转折点，也是一个危险的信号。如果任由目前我国玉米进口量增大的趋势发展，玉米很有可能成为下一个“大豆”，也必将会影响到我国国家粮食安全和国民经济的健康发展。本文先是介绍我国玉米种植及消费概况，然后从进口规模、进口依存度、进口来源国三个方面对我国玉米进口贸易现状进行阐述，并尝试研究出我国玉米进口贸易现状的深层次原因，并针对这些原因提出建设性、可行性的对策及建议，希望对平衡我国玉米贸易和提高我国粮食安全水平有所贡献。关键词：玉米，进口，贸易，粮食安全河南科技大学经济学院本科毕业论文IITHESTATUSQUOOFCHINA’SCORNIMPORTSANDITSINFLUENCINGFACTORSANALYSISABSTRACTCornisanimportantfoodcrop,itisnotonlytheanimal’smainsourceoffeed,andisanimportantindustrialrawmaterialforhumanbeings,amajorrenewableenergycrops,playingincreasinglyimportantroleintheprocessofmoderneconomicdevelopment.Chinaislocatedintheoneofthethreegoldencornintheworld,regardlessoftheacreageortotaloutputaftertheUnitedStates,istheworld’ssecondlargestcorn-producingcountries,whileChinaalsoisthemaincornconsumptioncountry.Sincethenewcentury,Chinahasalwaysbeenthecornnetexportingcountries.but，inrecentyears,duetoChina’shighercornprices,therapiddevelopmentofthecornindustryandotherdomesticfactors,andtheappreciationoftheRMB,foreignspeculationandotherinternationalfactors,resultingintheincreasingamountofcornimportimporter.Until2010,Chinabecamethecornnetimportcountry,whichistheturningpointofChina’scorntradeinthenewcentury,alsoadangeroussignal.IfallowthedevelopmentoftheincreasingtrendofChina’scornimports,cornislikelytobecomethenext“soy”,whichwillalsoaffectournationalfoodsecurityandthehealthydevelopmentofthenationaleconomy.Thisarticlefirstintroducedcornplantingandconsumptionsituation,andthenfromimportscale,importdependency,importsourcethreeaspectstoexpoundourcornimporttradestatus,andtrytostudythedeepreasonforthepresentsituationinthecornimporttradeofourcountry,andinthelightofthesereasonsputforwardaconstructive,thefeasiblecountermeasuresandSuggestions.HopingitcancontributetothebalanceofChina’scorntradeandimprovetheleveloffoodsecurityinChina.KEYWORDS:corn,import,trading,foodsecurity河南科技大学经济学院本科毕业论文III目录前言.....................................................1一、我国玉米在国内市场概况及国际市场地位..................2（一）生产种植现状..................................................................................................21.产量逐步增多且所占比重越来越大..............................................................22.播种面积在波动中稳步上升..........................................................................23.单产呈上升趋势..............................................................................................3（二）消费情况...........................................................................................................41.消费量增速较快...............................................................................................42.消费结构发生变化...........................................................................................5（三）在世界玉米贸易中的地位................................................................................6二、我国玉米进口贸易现状..................................8（一）进口规模..........................................................................................................8（二）进口依存度......................................................................................................9（三）进口主要来源国............................................................................................10三、我国玉米进口贸易的影响因素...........................12（一）我国玉米进口量的国际影响因素分析........................................................121.国外玉米成本低............................................................................................122.人民币升值....................................................................................................133.国际价格........................................................................................................134.国际供需结构................................................................................................145.外资渗入和控制............................................................................................15（二）我国玉米进口量的国内影响因素分析........................................................151.产量供不应求，进口需求量增....................................................................152.饲料及深加工行业的需求增加....................................................................173.政策因素........................................................................................................174.国内市场价格................................................................................................185.农民和贸易商惜售心理................................................................................186.品质较差，缺乏竞争力................................................................................197.其他因素........................................................................................................20河南科技大学经济学院本科毕业论文IV四、未来我国玉米进口贸易发展的对策建议...................21（一）扩大生产能力，提高玉米自给水平............................................................211.加大投入力度，提高玉米产量................................................