中国棉花市场分析报告-Cotton

ChinaCottonPrice,ImportPolicyAndConsignmentTradeTCEM’sCottonPricein2007UnfavorableEnvironmentforChinaTextileIndustrySlidingImportDutiesAffectthePriceSlidingImportDutiesAffectthePriceDomesticSupply&DemandDataIn2006Chinaenjoyedacottonharvestwithplantation79.97mil.muand6.73milliontonsoutput。(DatafromNBS--NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina).In2007cottonplantationis81.7millionmuwhichis2.2%higherthanthatofin2006.Outputwillbe7.07mil.tonsinearlySeptemberthisyear.CottonproductioninMainAreas07Plantation（10,000mu）06Plantation（10,000mu）plus/mius（±%）07output06outputplus/mius（±%）XizJiang200419502.8%2502500%ShanDong143013952.5%1101037%HeNan121812001.5%85832%HeiBei9509351.6%65642%HuBei602608-1.0%48464%AnHui5875624.4%39368%JiangSu518520-0.4%3538-8%HuNan23020313.1%232110%Total753973732.2%6556412%Cottonproductionin2007PlantationinMainProvinces05001000150020002500XinJiangShanDongHeNanHeBeiHuBeiAnHuiJiangSuHuNanMainProvincesPlantation07Plantation(10,000mu)06Plantation(10,000mu)Cottonproductionin2007OutputintheMainProvinces050100150200250300XinJiangShanDongHeNanHeBeiHuBeiAnHuiJiangSuHuNanMainProvincesOutput2007Output(10,000mt）2006Output(10,000mt）ChinaCottonPriceChinacottonconsumptioninthesecondquarter,theGDPgrowthinthefirsthalfof2007is11.9%,andtheannualGDPgrowthisexpectedtobe10%.Forthepast4years,thegrowthhasbeenholding9%andup.China’spercapitalconsumptionoffabricalsoshownarapidupward.Inthepastthreeyears,theincreaseis15%perannumandwillmaintainthestronggrowth.ChinacottonconsumptionFor2006-07is10.88milliontons,whileforthe2007-08,thepredictedcottonconsumptionwillbe11.75milliontons.。In2006,China’syarnproductionis17.22milliontons.BytheendofJulyin2007,theyarnproductionis17.33milliontons.UnfavorableEnvironmentforChinaTextileIndustryabove95%arenon-stated-ownedenterprisesintextileindustry,oneofthemostmarket-orientedindustriesinChina.increaseofdomesticlaborcosts,theraiseofrawmaterialpriceandthedecreaseofthetax-returnfortextileexport,theprofitsmarginofthetextileindustryisextrudedfurther.Un-favorableEnvironmentforChinaTextileIndustrycreatedalotoftradesurplusbenefitingfromthegoodqualityandcheaperprice,andnowaresufferingfromtensetradefrictionsandtechnicalbarrierscausedbythistradegap.TheInfluenceofRMBappreciationChina’scotton&textileindustrychainsinmainthreeelements:rawcotton—yarn&fabrics—apparelandtextile.Productsaredistributedtotwomarkets:forexportandfordomesticdemand.China’stextileindustriesexportrelatedratioisupto53%.Anyblockintheindustrychainwillaffectthebenefitsandefficiencyofthewholeindustry.Theslowdowninexportswillhaveadirectandstrongeffectonthemarketdemandforcotton.TheInfluenceofRMBappreciationUptillAugust31,2007,thecumulativeRMBappreciationhadreached3.365%,exceeding3.349%--theannualincreasesof2006.Takingintoconsiderationtheone-timeadjustmentatthestartofthereformin2005,theappreciationishigher,i.e9.557%.thecorrespondingfor2006is5.525%.TheInfluenceofRMBappreciationRMBAppreciationwillweakenthelaborcomparativeadvantageintextileindustrywhichisthemostcriticalpointsinChinatextileexports.TheappreciationofRMBcanfurtherenhancethehighervalue-addedproducts,accelerateindustryre-construction.LowerTaxRebatesforTextileExporttaxrebatesfortextileswasloweredfrom11%to9%,forgarmentsfrom13%to11%fromJuly1st,2007.letmarketitselftoselecttextileenterprises,tooptimizetheallocationoftheresources.LowerTaxRebatesforTextileTherewillbearemarkablechangeonChina’sexporttextiles’orientation,expeditingtheexportofhighvalue-addedproducts.ThestateaimstotransformChinatextilesindustryfromHugetoStrong.CottonNetGaptransitfromRigiditytoFlexibilityconfrontedwitheverseveremarketsituation.Somesmall-sizedtextilemillsareshutdown,andthelargeandmedium-sizedarekeepingoperatingratearound70-80%duetothelargeinventory.Lowerproductionandhigheryarncountscomesoutlowercottonconsumptioninvolume.ChinadomesticcottonsupplygapwillbeaffectedmorebythemarketsnationallyandinternationallyChinanationalreservessoundstrongerinthesupervisionDuringJuly16th–Aug.22ndin2007,Chinahadauctioned300,000mtsofcommercialandreservecottons.Since2003,Chinahadinvested10morenewwarehousegiving600,000mts.morespacestonationalreserves.Chinaremain3.27mil.mtsofcottonstockin2006/07and2.996milmtsfor2007/08.ChinaCottonPriceInfluencedbyrapidmicro-eco