中国民航运输业市场结构与市场绩效实证分析

31,2,1(1.,100101;2.,100740)3211[]2006-07-20;[]2006-09-06[],,,E2mail:[e-mail]@yahoo.com;,;,,[],,;19912004,[];;[]F59[]A[]1002-5006(2006)10-0070-081,,:(2003)(structure2compet2ition2performance,SCP),(Herfindahl2HirschmanIndex,HHI)8,;(2002)(contestabilitytheory),,:(Le,1997);(ZhangandChen,2003),(2002),HHI,,(2003)19922001,CR4CR8HI,,,,;19912004,,OLS,221119531984,,,,,1978,231,,112121978,,1984,,19871,,2131984,1998,1021200610TOURISMTRIBUNE7024,,,,,20021,(),10,,,4,200490%,66,5,,,,49%;,39%2141992,(),,1992,39;1996,,34,,,,,1995,2415,1997,,,,60%,1998,,1998,1999,2000,,,2004,,,(0175)55%125%,3(19782005)311:15,,1()2()3()4()5():,2005,135TOURISMTRIBUNE2120061071312,,,,,,,,611,,1993,1993,7616%,(),19981999,,2004,6916%,20035%,8619,10,:,,,,,,,,,,313,,,,,3146(%)7(%)8(%)9(%)10(%)11(%):,2005,13512()13():21200610TOURISMTRIBUNE72,,1997,1994,2001()GDPGDP(1978=1),(,2004)1617,,,315(),,1998,,,2001,316,,,,317(HHI),19912004,()1004(CR4),4(SCP),HHICR4,CR4CR2(CR4,),HHI3,,1990,14(P)15(P)16(PGDP)17(PGDP)18()19()::,2005;,19962005TOURISMTRIBUNE2120061073,,,,,2002,10,2002HHI2400(20032407),CR490%(200389167%),HHI2200(20032271),CR490(200387188)(Borenstein,1992)19771990,419775612%6115%,HHI10601210,,2005,,4,20()21(P)22()23(P)24(P)::19862004;,200525HHI26CR4(%)27()28HHI29CR4(%)30():(19862004)(2005)21200610TOURISMTRIBUNE744,,,OLS,2090,411,11(19912004)P4.6292860.7450193.325.561.04e+07567333832066302.31e+07%0.59592860.03582540.5330.661P63.7642922.0339833.3104P6.8535711.4775844.89.35HHI1736.679368.20581349.5932407.445CR473.807148.12559764.689.71992200219911992=1,=020032004=1,=0:(19962005)(19922005)(19962005):=P=PHHI=(100P)2CR4(4)=(4),9,(Borenstein,1992;MorrisonandWinston,1990),,(),,4:,,,(70%),,,;,,,,,;,HHI4CR4;,,1992,,,,1992,19921,0,,200210,3,,2002,20034,,2002,200320041,0412OLS,,ADF,,,,4OLS2413,4,,,HHICR4,71992,(1%),1992,,,,4TOURISMTRIBUNE2120061075219912004OLS(t2P)P8.292631(4.23P0.005)9.375142(3.87P0.008)9.292123(4.29P0.004)8.916431(4.06P0.005)-0.0729054(-10.47P0.000)-0.0694793(-8.25P0.000)-0.0724476(-9.04P0.000)-0.441868(-8.62P0.000)-0.4263646(-3.97P0.007)-0.4258254(-3.22P0.018)-0.3737912(-3.13P0.017)-0.0691789(-3.57P0.009)HHI-0.0033153(-12.81P0.000)-0.0031569(-11.24P0.000)CR4-0.1473296(-10.34P0.000)-0.1486204(-11.05P0.000)1992-0.2417972(-1.82P0.119)0.0954244(0.61P0.562)20021.410086(8.19P0.000)1.456289(6.76P0.001)1.352076(6.93P0.000)1.464225(7.14P0.000)0.5114204(12.35P0.000)0.5109939(6.68P0.001)0.4665085(7.25P0.000)0.5295847(7.90P0.000)13131313R20.97180.95740.95620.9548F34.4022.4930.5829.54:,,Xi-Xi-1:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),HHICR4,(),(Bailey,1981;Morrison,Winston,1990),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2002,,,,,,,1992,,1992,5,,,,?,19912004,21200610TOURISMTRIBUNE76,,,:;,,2002,1992[][1]BaileyEE,PanzarJC.Thecontestabilityofairlinemarketsduringthetransitiontoderegulation[J].LawandContemporaryProblems,1981,44:125-45.[2]Borenstein,Severin.TheevolutionofU.S.airlinecompetition[J].TheJournalofEconomicPerspectives,1992,6(2):45-73.[3]KimEH,SingalV.Mergersandmarketpower:evidencefromtheairlineindustry[J].TheAmericanEconomicReview,1993,83(3):549-569.[4]LeThuongT.ReformingChinasairlineindustry:fromstate2ownedmonopolytomarketDynamism[J].TransportationJournal,1997,37(2):45.[5]MorrisonSA,WinstonC.Empiricalimplicationsandtestsofthecontestabilityhypothesis[J].JournalofLawandEconomics,1987,XXX:53-66.[6]ZhangAnming.EvolutionofChinasairtransportdevelopmentandpolicytowardsinternationalliberalization[J].TransportationJournal,2003,42(3):31.[7],.[J].,2004,(?).[8],.:[J].,2002,(2).[9].[J].,2002,24(9).[10].[J].,2003,(3).MarketStructureandMarketPerformanceofChinasAviationIndustry:AnEmpiricalStudyHURui2juan1,KUANGLin2,WANGXiao2dong1(1.SchoolofInternationalTradeandEconomics,UniversityofInternationalBusinessandEconomics,Beijing100101,China;2.ChinaNationalTourismAdministration,Beijing100740,China)Abstract:ThispapermakesabriefintroductiontothevicissitudeofChinascivilaviationindustryandmoreextensivelyoutlinestheperformanceoftheindustrybyadoptingmulti2quantitativeindices.UsingtheannualaggregatedataofChinascivilaviationindustryfrom1991to2004,thepaperdirectsanempricalanalysisoftheinfluentialfactorsofmarketprice,whichindudemarketstructure,imputsutilizationandinstitutivefactor.Keywords:Chinascivilaviationindustry;marketstructure;marketperformance[:;:]20071996,,8,,,,2007,:1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.,,20061030,E2mail:[e-mail]2006920TOURISMTRIBUNE2120061077