中国电信市场发展前景分析报告

1February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFrost&SullivanFrost&SullivanFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence2February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFrost&SullivanFrost&SullivanFrost&SullivanFrost&SullivanFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuu“”u50u40u401,000u3February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuFrost&Sullivanuuu7uu4February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence/InternalInformationGatheringGEPorter’s5ForcesPESTKPI’sFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFrost&Sullivan5February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuuuuuuFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence6February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence7February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceCSNA:ConvergenceStrategies&NetworkArchitecturesOSSCS:OperationsSupportSystemCompetitiveStrategiesCOS:CompetitiveOperatorStrategiesCOSII:Tier2OperatorsDSGS:Data/InternetServicesGrowthStrategiesHOSTS:ApplicationHostingStrategies&Techs.CollaborationCommunicationsMarketSPIE:StratecastPartnersInsightforExecutivesFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence8February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence9February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence10February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence11February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence2002200320042005200620072008Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou14CitiesNationwide30%Value-AddedServices49%50%25%Mobile49%35%%ForeignownershipBasicService25%35%49%Source:FrostSource:Frost&Sullivan,2002&Sullivan,200212February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence33GGlicenselicenseIPv6serviceIPv6serviceavailableavailable33GTrialGTrialNetworkNetworkMobileMobilesubscriberssubscribersoutpacesoutpacesFixedFixedTelecomTelecomlawlawputintoputintoeffecteffectMoreMoreforeignforeigninvestmentinvestmentsinjectedsinjectedNewNewcompetitivecompetitivemarketmarketlandscapelandscapetakestakesshapeshape1H20032H2003February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuuuu13February20th,200325SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,200326SolutionsMarketIntelligence14February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuuvv515vv4030vuvvvuvFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence----/------/•••••15February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuu/uuFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuuuuuu16February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuu—February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuuBPR—17February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuuuu3G3GvTD-SCDMAvv3GuuFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuv44v44v4uv44vv4418February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceABGDECEOFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuvvvuvvuv(X1)v(X2)OSSBPRv(X3)uv(Y1)v(Y2)v(Y3)19February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuvvuvv20February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuuuuuvvFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence—S1vARPUv3GNGNv44v4v21February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceS2vvv3GNGN4v—February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceS4v3GNGNv4v4v3G44—22February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceS5vvvvv44—February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceS1S2S4S5S1S2S1S523February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuuu3GNGNu“”uuuFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence24February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence25February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence26February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence27February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceGlobalFocusLocalFocusNicheServiceFocusBroadServiceFocusMarketDirection321491.biliao.comFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence04080120160200240Fixed140179212Mobile[phone]Internet2033.750200020012002EUnit:US$Million207190452002.9Source:FrostSource:Frost&Sullivan,2002&Sullivan,200228February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuuuu+uuuuuFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceUtilisationlevelsofGSMnetworkoperator(Swedishexample)Mediumtraffic:35-40%0003060912151821TimeofdayMaxtraffic:65-70%40%70%100%29February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuvvuvvv3G3Gv30February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceuvvvuuuuFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceRingtone/musicdownloadingPicture/flashdownloadingK-JAVAdownloadingGamesAODVODPosition-basedapplicationsMultimediaE-mailEntertainmentInformationE-commerceGPSSMSEnhancedSMSE-walletIS95ACDMA1XDual-modecardDual-modehandsetVideophoneCDMACDMAValue-addedServices31February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligenceFebruary20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence32February20th,2003SolutionsMarketIntelligence05000100001500020000200020012002200320042005MillionsofUSD§Revenuesfromvoicediminishing§In2005,estimatedthat40%ofoperatorrevenueswillbefromVASCAGRNavigation/info200%E-mail95%SMS33%Voice1%Total10%MobileComm