市场投资分析—如何评估您的商机

11.120801.241.2.11.2.3.70154.5.1974Pahlavi)66.MKT7.171.2.21.2.3.81.2.31.2.3.191.31-11-1101-11111-1(ChangingTimes)1.42121.WaystoScuttleYourNewBusinessChangingTimesJuly,1990,pp.63-65.113212.116••••2172.2202050182.3(PhillipMorris)(PhillipMorris)2192.4(1)(2)(3)(4)202212.522-1222-1SUB(1)(2)(3)223(4)34524ColowyoColowyo225Colowyo6262.6(1)(2)227(3)72-1282292-1••••12%15%•25%•18%•AAA•••••••2.736(1)(2)(3)222-2302-2/1.2311.2.3.4.2.323.2332.8(BostonConsultingGroup)SBU2-334235AdaptedfromB.HedleyStrategyandtheBusinessPortfolioLongRangePlanningFebruary1977P.12.2-3SBU10%SBUSBU1.5SBU1.50.880%SBU1.5SBUSBUSBUSBU(1)SBUSBUSBUSBU(2)SBU(3)SBU36(4)SBUSBUSBUSBUSBU(1)SBU(2)SBUSBUSBUSBUSBU(3)SBUSBUSBUSBU(4)SBUSBU237SBU341.SeePhilipkotlerMarketingmanagementAnalysisPlanningandControlEnglewoodcliffNJPrentice-Hall1980P.642.SeeDerekF.AbellstrategicWindowsJournalofmarketing.ChicagoILJuly1978PP.21-263.OpcitP.76384.SeePeterF.DruckerManagementTasksResponsibilitiesPractice.NewYorkNYHarper&Row1974P755.Ibid.6.ColowyoCoalcompanyColowyomagazineMeekerCOSpring1980P17.SeePeterF.DrucherP1012393543.11319443.23.2.13453.2.23.2.3463.33-13-23473-113-22480~78~1213~2526~4041~65653-13493-13-380.5%503-33.4351523.53-219871990353199063-2/266834810359248709873445596894219973//180278193411.17803134133141441.054511991RICHLAND8047963224921149714607219911402645620619871990198718027813413319341141441.181.05654804796114791714026414144228003224927460704%562062.57562063553.65623.73573.83.8.1583-323.2%3-3Softcontactlens:/(%)(%)850000928.828.8675309022.822.8687042123.223.2743021825.225.229553738100.0100.0Artificialdata3.8.23593-43-4///850000968570123.96675309038720174.40687042132810209.40743021866730111.3429553738206830154.78()=210847000=152.78=32634898603.8.33-5YX1X23-5/1/2/YX1X219736860132940197465201116391975634510414019766710120937361/1/2/YX1X2197772221553441978681012964519797005136544198072751492501981745016415319827250159159198371051510661984666611967119856900132272Y=a+b1X1+b2X2()Y=4641+1.701600+0.4660Y=7333.4()3.950062500(1)(2)(3)3631003-664123239800137691503656644.16819704.24.2.14694.2.2704.2.34.2.44714.34.44-1724-114734.5••••74•4.6(1)(2)(3)(4)14754-24-2123456789/10104-2764-1/24-1AdaptedfromMichaelE.Porter,HowCompetitiveForcesShapeStrategy,HarvardBusinessReview,57,No.2(March-April)p.141./47778(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)4794.7••••804.834-34814-3ABC0001.2.3.4.5.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.1.2.3.4.5.1.2.3.4.824834-3124-4(HolidayRestaurant)844-4RibEyeSouthernInn7.263.501.953.936.50King'sInn3.702.05Charlie'sPlace7.68Tonys6.843.251.755.25Sandpiper6.493.001.756.00TheCastle7.963.601.85RambleInn6.203.051.807.95TheRibJoint6.882.551.756.507.50TheIceBox7.163.406.50UncleJoe's7.872.256.50CaptainBill's7.952.954.95John'sPiner7.502.854.956.35HolidayRestaurant7.252.751.953.956.504.9485Leeming/PacquinDivisionofPfizerHaikarate86OldSpiceAquaVelvaMennenJadeEastEnglishleatherJadeEastEnglishleatherHaikarateHaikarate4874.10474.1188/4891.Thompson,ArthurA.andA.J.Strickland.StrategicManagement:ConceptsandCases.BusinessPublications,Inc.,1984,p.152.2.Porter,MichaelE.HowCompetitiveForcesShapeStrategy,HarvardBusinessReview.57,#2(March-April1979),p.141.903.AdaptedfromMcGregor,C.H.andPaulC.Chakmas.RetailManagementProblems,4thEdition.Homewood,IL:RichardD.Irwin,Inc.,1970,pp.255-256.4.Alderson,Wroe.DynamicMarketBehavior.Homewood,IL:RichardD.Irwin,Inc.,1965,Chapter8.5.Thesectionisbasedon:Kotler,Philip.MarketingManagement:Analysis,Planning,andControl,4thEdition.EnglewoodCliffs,NJ:Prentice-Hall,Inc.,Chapter11.491ROI5-1965-1350000045000005500000250000034000004300000100000010000001200000457000480000512000157000168000180000280003800048000150001500015000120001400016000290003800047000550005500055000753000808000873000247000292000327000128440151840170040+143440166840185040355975-15.1100985.259920%/1005-25-2//a52000052000052000010~251200001200001200000.650.700.857800084000102000b1100001100001100000.030.050.07330055007700c1000001000001000000.100.150.201000015000200005101//d2500002500002500000.030.050.077500012500175000e180002050025000f720007800095000a,b,c,d,e,f18880021550026720059440001888005107750021550051336000267200595000013400000.250.500.25=9440000.2510775000.5013360000.25=110875011087501025.35.45.551031.12001200144002.1043.4.51055.6.1067.8.9.51075.6••••••108•(WholesalePricesandPriceIndexes)•(Standard&PoorsIndustrialSurveys)•Standard&PoorsS&P•AgriculturalStatistics••(DepartmentofCommerce)•BusinessPeriodicalIndexH.W.Wilson•ThomasRegisterThomasPublishing5109•SurveyofBuyingpower5.71.753500001105-15-351115-15-3=/=FC/(PV)FCP112V=TR=TCTRTC=0TR=PQTC=FCVQPQ=FC+VQQQ=2200P==220/FC==60000V==170/5-1TR=TC1200PQ=FC+VQ220Q=60000170Q220Q170Q=6000050Q=60000Q=1200()5113=FC/(PV)=60000/220170=60000/50=1200()5-12205-41005-4(%)700(25000)25800(20000)33900(15000)501000(10000)1001100(5000)12000130050001400100001001500150005016002000033170025000251145-45-55-5(1200(%)18048000331903600050200240001002101200022002301200024024000100250360005026048000332200120014001700=2201700600001701700=37400060000289000=25000()5115=2201400600001701400=30800060000238000=10000(