我国房地产市场宏观调控研究——基于深圳市房地产市场的实证分析

I分类号*F293.3学校代码10564UDC**学号2004235002密级学位论文我国房地产市场宏观调控研究——基于深圳市房地产市场的实证分析杜海军指导教师姓名江华教授申请学位级别硕士专业名称土地资源管理论文提交日期2007年5月论文答辩日期2007年5月学院名称经济管理学院学位授予日期2007年5月答辩委员会主席赖作卿教授评阅人赖作卿教授万忠研究员I摘要改革开放以来，我国市场经济日趋完善。随着经济水平的发展，人民的生活水平显著提高，消费结构不断升级，特别是1998年国家取消福利分房之后，人民对房地产的需求一下迸发出来，房地产业日渐兴旺，市场化程度不断提高。但是由于受到我国社会主义初级阶段发展水平的限制，房地产业目前仍存在了不少问题，其中突出的一点就是房地产业赖以存在的基础—土地，所有权掌握在国家手中，土地的市场化程度直接影响了房地产业的发展。此外，我国现行金融体制在一定程度上也影响了房地产业的发展。这决定了我国房地产市场依然是政策导向型，因此本文通过对政府宏观调控理论的研究，分析在宏观调控下我国房地产市场的发展。市场经济条件下，政府宏观调控的核心目标是造成现行房价变动的供求关系。宏观调控应是政府对经济总量即总供给与总需求的调整和控制。本文在介绍房地产经济分析相关理论的基础上构建了我国房地产市场非均衡模型，在定性分析了我国房地产市场发展的基础上，采用实证分析的方法，研究宏观调控对我国房地产市场的影响，并深入分析造成供求失衡的原因，发现一些深层次的问题，通过这种总量控制进而稳定整个社会经济周期中的房价上下波动。本文分析指出，自2003年以来我国房地产宏观调控已取得初步成效，房地产投资过快增长的势头得到有效控制，房地产市场秩序逐步改善。然而通过对深圳市房地产市场的实证分析中发现目前我国房地产宏观调控仍存在不少问题。本文通过构建房地产市场非均衡模型，发现非均衡度指标波动情况能够有效反映我国房地产供求波动的实际情况，并得出我国房地产供求受商品房销售价格、人均国内生产总值、房地产投资额、城市人口所占比重等因素影响的结论，为政府宏观调控提供了参考依据。通过对我国房地产市场的理论研究与实证分析，得出我国下一步宏观调控的方向应主要从完善现行土地出让制度和税收制度、加快住房保障体系建设步伐及金融体制创新、完善相关法律法规、提高调控艺术、考虑地区差异并留有一定的适度空间以降低房地产调控风险，以调控房地产价格为出发点、以调控房地产市场供需平衡为目的进行分类调控，促进我国房地产市场更加持续、稳健的发展。关键词：房地产市场宏观调控非均衡度博弈ItheResearchofthePolicyaboutChinaRealEstateMacro-accommodated—BasedonTheDemonstrativeAnalyseofShenzhenRealtyMarketDuHaijun(CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,SouthChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Guangzhou510642,China)Abstract:Sincethereformandopenpolicy,ourcountrymarket-economyhasconsummateddaybyday.Alongwiththeeconomicalleveldevelopment,thelevelofpeople'slivingisremarkablyenhanced,theconsumptionpatternunceasinglypromotes,speciallyafterourcountryconcelledthewelfarehouseallocationin1998,thedemandabouttherealestateburstout,therealestateindustryisprosperousdayafterday,themarketdegreeunceasinglyenhances.Becausethesocialismofourcountryisinitialdevelopment,therealestateindustrystillhasmanyproblemsatpresent,prominentisthefoundation-landwhichrealestateindustrydependsonisdominatedbyourcountry,thelandmarketdegreehasdirectlyaffectedtherealestateindustrydevelopment.Inaddition,ourcountrypresentmonetarysystemhasalsoaffectedthedevelopmentofrealestateindustryinthecertaindegree.Whatdecideourcountryrealestatemarketstillisthpolicyguidance,thereforethisarticlethroughtothegovernmentmacroeconomicreguelationandcontroltheoryresearch,analyzesunderthemacroeconomicregulationandcontrolourcountryrealestatemarketdevelopment.Thecoregoalwhatthegovernmentregulatesiswieldingthepresenthousepricetochangethesupplyanddemandrelations.Themacroeconomicregulationandcontrolshouldbethetotaldemandandeconomicoutputadjustedbygovernment.Thisarticlehasconstructedthemarketnon-balancedmodelaboutourcountryrealestateafteranalyzingtheeconomiccorrelationtheory,basedonthequalitativeanddiagnosisanalysisaboutourcountryrealestatemarketdevelopment,researchtheinfluencebymacroeconomicregulationandcontroltoourcountryrealestatemarket,thoroughanalyzingthesupplyanddemandunbalancedreason,discoveredsomequestionsmoredeeper,throughthiskindofIItotalquantitycontrolthenleveloffthehousepriceundulationintheentiresocialeconomycycle.Thisarticlepointedoutthatthemacroeconomicregulationandcontroloftherealestateinourcountryhasobtainedthepreliminaryresultsince2003,therealestateinvestmentexcessivelyquicklygrowthtendencyisundertheactivecontrol,theorderofrealestatemarketimprovesgradually.ThroughthediagnosisanalysisaboutquestionsthatShenzhenrealestatemarketfacing,findtherealestatemacroeconomicregulationandcontrolregulationofourcountrystillhasmanyproblems.Throughconstructingtherealestatemarketnon-balancedmodel,discoveredtheundulationofthenon-balancedindexcaneffectivelyreflecttheactualundulationaboutthesupplyanddemandofourcountryrealestate,andfindthatourcountryrealestatesupplyanddemandisdecidedtothecommodityapartmentsellingprice,thepercapitalGDP,therealestateinvestmentcost,andtheurbanpopulationproportion,whichprovidesthereferenceforthegovernmentmacroeconomicregulation.Byourcountryrealestatemarketfundamentalresearchandtherealdiagnosisanalysis,itobtainsthedirectionofthenextstepofmacroeconomicregulationandcontrol,suchasconsummatingthepresentlandsystemandthetaxrevenuesystem,speedingupthestepofhousingsafeguardsystemconstructionandthemonetarysysteminnovation,andconsummatingthecorrelationlawandregulations,enhancingregulationart,consideringtheregionaldisparityandremainscertainmoderatespacetoreducetherealestateregulationrisk,considertherealestatepriceasastartingpoint,regulatingthesupplyanddemandbalanceoftherealestatemarketasthegoal,carryontheclassifiedregulationtopromotesourcountryrealestatemarketgrowcontinuallyandsteadily.Keywords:RealEstateMarketMacro-accommodateNon-equilibriumDegreeGameI目录1导言.............................................................11.1研究意义.......................................................11.2研究思路和研究方法.............................................11.3论文框架结构...................................................22文献与理论综述...................................................42.1房地产经济分析基本概念.........................................42.2房地产经济分析理论综述.........................................62.2.1房地产供需理论.....................................