房地产市场与国民经济协调发展的实证分析(1)

XH2P,,,:,,,:,,,,:,,1978,(116025);,1951,,,(116025);,1980,(116025)X,05BJY013(,,1992)272004(),,1998,,,,;,,2004,1315813,2811%,2170%,2815%,,,,,,,,,119922004GDP,47,,0181,,,199312419%,1315%,10199520039,,GDP815%,1614%,,65%70%,80%90%,,,1(,)2()GDP(,)()21998120052(100)(100):19982003-2%2%,2004119992,,200441018%,910%,,1918%,1512%,1317%,1314%,1210%,1114%,1111%,1014%,1013%,2004,2005,,,,,,,,2004,,,:,,,;,57:,20056:,()43,2005;Granger,19942002;Granger,,,;14,,1998,,,,,20053,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,(),,,()Hendry,,6720063:,20043ZhengSiqi,LiuHongyu,InteractionAmongConstructionInvestment,OtherInvestmentandGDPinChina,TsinghuaScienceandTechnology,April2004.::1995200214,20043:,20047,,,,,,(P,/)(GDP)(R)(M1)(IR),1995120053:ln(Pt)=3107+0154ln(GDPt)+0151ln(IRt)-0142ln(M1t)-0101Rt+^ut(1)t=(1119)(5157)(3113)(-5167)(-3115)^ut=0193^ut-1-0153^ut-2+et(2)t=(716)(-5158)R2=01994D.W.=1166(1),AR(2),LM,et,,(1),GDP1%,0154%;1%,0151%,1%,0142%(),H2P(hp),(1):ln(Phpt)=2134+0174ln(GDPhpt)+0180ln(IRhpt)-0173ln(Mhp1t)-0102Rhpt+^ut(3)t=(1119)(7190)(4136)(-9178)(-9120)^ut=2121^ut-1-1159^ut-2+0133^ut-3+et(4)t=(12105)(-4160)(1198)R2=0199D.W.=21083P()PE()4(3),PE(3),(4)34,199619991996200577=(-)3100/:1996319993,2004220053,,,,,,,,,,2004,,,,3%20051,,1999420041,,,,,,,()5(/),519992004,,,,,2002,,,,,,,,19987,,1998,,,,1998120053,(REI)GDP(R)(L):ln(REIt)=-8160+1tln(GDPt-1)+2tln(Rt-4)+3tln(Lt)+^ut(5)z=(-8111)(4218)(-1191)(11110)8720063,Z2Z21t2t3tGDP,,,(1t)(2t)(3t),()61t,GDP,1t:1.,11351165GDP1%,1135%1165%,GDP:GDP,,,,GDP,,6(1t)7(2t)2.,20001200121155,20023200531135,2001GDP:,,,,,,GDP,,200110WTO,,,,()7,,,,-0142-0109,1%,0142%0109%,,:1.,,,,,;,,,972.,,,,,,2001,,,,,1999;,,,2001,:,,,,,;,2001,,(),,,819981200538,,30%,19962001,7,,2003,,,,2004(),,,20042,,,,,8(%)9(3t)9,01030140,1%,0103%0140%2001,,,,,,,679,GDP2001,0820063,,VAR(),,,,,,,1.(R)(GDP)(REI)(P)VAR(3):Yt=A0+A1Yt-1+A2Yt-2+A3Yt-3+t(6),Yt4,Yt=(Rt,ln(GDPt),ln(REIt),ln(Pt));t;A1,A2,A3,31995120053,Yt,:,2.,VAR,ii,VAR()VAR1,,VAR,(VMA()):Yt=0t+1t-1+2t-2++pt-p+(7)p=(p,ij),p=0,1,2,yjyi0,ij,1,ij,2,ij,,Cholesky,(:),;;(1)GDP10,,GDP1,18D:,,,1999,1011062,,14,010,,1020,,,,,GDP;,GDP,1998,,10REIGDP11GDP,,152510GDP,(2)GDP11,GDP,50,GDP,1011,,,:,,,,,101,,,,,(),,,,,60,1,1152,1,2311479,,,2820063:,,2003,1920,25%70%40%70%25%,,1.VAR(REIt)(steelt)(cementt)(glasst)VAR(2):Yt=A0+A1Yt-1+A2Yt-2+t(8),Yt4,Yt=(ln(REIt),ln(steelt),ln(cementt),ln(glasst));t;A1,A2,21995120053Yt,1,,2.,121314,(:),12131412,,22,22,,500,,,,,,,,,,,13,,5,,10,300,38:2004,,2004,278:,20046,,,,,,,,,14,,5,,,,,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,:,,,:GDP,,2001WTOGDP,,,,:(1)1020,,(2)GDP(3),,,:4820063(4)ThePrincipleofChangesinIncomeDistributionCostsandInstitutionalChangesinNationalAgriculturalTrade:ARe2interpretationofandLessonsfromtheCornLawsReformsinBritainfrom1815to1846HuangShaoanGuoYanru50BritainpsCornLawsreformsfrom1815to1846representatypicalcaseofinstitutionaltransitionfromprotectedtradetofreetrade.Basedonare2interpretationandanalysisofthisperiod,wetrytocastlightontheprincipleofchangesinincomedistributioncosts,whichenablesustoexplaininstitutionalchangesinnationalagriculturaltrade.Underparticularhistoricalcircumstances,theCornLawsprovidedBritainwithaneconomicmeansofensuringsufficientfoodsupplyandmaintainingsocialstabilitybecausetheirincomedistributioncostswerelowcomparedwiththetransfer2paymentmethodsofthegovernmentunderfreetradepolicies.Changesinthepoliticalandeconomicenvironmentduringthistimecausedcomparativechangesindistributioncost2return.MarginalchangesaccumulatedandresultedintheabolitionoftheCornLawsin1846.ThegradualandaccumulatedchangesenabledBritainpsagriculturetodevelopinastableinstitutionalenvironment.ThisreviewofCornLawsreformsissignificantfortheChinesegovernmentinthatitprovidesanewapproachtoensurethesecurityoffoodandmaintenanceofsocialstabilityafteritsentranceintotheWTO.(5)EconomicandIndustrialFluctuations(198622003):APreliminaryStudyofCorrelation,FeaturesandDrivingForcesSunGuangsheng62Economicfluctuationisthecomprehensiveresultofthefluctuationofvariousindustries.Withindustryasastartingpoint,thepaperdiscussesthecorrelationbetweenfluctuationinindividualindustriesandeconomicfluctuation,thefeaturesoffluctuationineachindustryintheprocessofeconomicfluctuation,andindustriesdrivingeconomicfluctuation.Itindicates:(1)fluctuationinheavyindustriespredominatesinthemacroeconomiccycle.(2)Therangeoffluctuationindifferentindustriesiswiderthanthatoffluctuationsintheeconomy,whichmeansthatindustrialfluctuationisdifferentandleadstoariskdispersioneffect.Industrialeconomicbenefitfluctuatesmoremarkedlythangrossoutput.(3)Industrialaddedvalueandgrossoutputvaluefluctuationsareweaklycorrelatedwitheconomicfluctuationinthecorrespondingperiodoftime.Butthecorrelationismuchstrongerinthelongtermthanintheshortterm.Thefluctuationsinindustrialpriceindexesandtheincrementrateoffixedassetinvestmentareallmorecloselycorrelatedwiththeircorrespondingaggregatepartners.(4)Themetallurgicalindustry,thebuildingmaterialsandnon2metalmineralproductsindustry,andtheconstructionindustryarethemainonesthatgiveanimpetustothebusinesscycle.Manufactur