罗兰贝格--邮政市场分析

1LON-04539-003-01-02-Trafficandrevenuecase-London,17July20012LON-04539-003-01-02Thisdocumentwascreatedfortheexclusiveuseofourclients.Itisnotcompleteunlesssupportedbytheunderlyingdetailedanalysesandoralpresentation.ItmustnotbepassedontothirdpartiesexceptwiththeexplicitpriorconsentofRolandBerger&PartnersLtd.ContentPageA.IntroductiontoRolandBergerStrategyConsultants3B.Executivesummary7C.Background11D.2001update16D.1Volumesandflows17D.2Internationalhaulagecosts21D.3Structuralandhaulageoperatingmodeladjustments24D.4Modelledchangestokeyparameters29E.Implicationsandconclusions333LON-04539-003-01-02A.IntroductiontoRolandBergerStrategyConsultants4LON-04539-003-01-02RolandBergerisaglobalstrategyconsultingfirmwithastrongEuropeanbaseStrengthinEuropeStrengthinEuropeGlobalconsultancybusinessGlobalconsultancybusiness•1,000consultants•32offices•22countries:•Approx£280millionannualturnover•17officesinEurope•700EuropeanconsultantsSource:RolandBergerStrategyConsultants5LON-04539-003-01-02TransportationisoneofRolandBerger’smainindustryareasandoperationsstrategyisakeyfunctionalactivitySource:RolandBergerStrategyConsultantsAutomotiveandsupplyMachinery/plant/construction/electronicsEnergy/environmentPharma/HealthcarePublicAdministrationFinancialservicesChemicals/oilandgasTraffic/transportationTelecom/Media/e-businessConsumergoodsRetail12%8%12%11%6%6%4%6%9%10%16%%revenuecontributionbysector%revenuecontributionbysectorCorporateFinanceM&AE-businessStrategyMarketing/SalesOrganisation/HRManagementCorporateRestructuring&TurnaroundOperationsStrategy3%13%34%20%17%13%%revenuecontributionbyfunction%revenuecontributionbyfunction6LON-04539-003-01-02CeskeDrahyRolandBergerhasservedtopmanagementofthetransportindustryonawiderangeofcommercialandotherissues•Marketentrystrategies•Marketandcompetitiveanalysis•Projectplanningandmanagement•Businessplanning•Profitabilityanalysis•Definingleadershipstrategy•Reviewingorganizationsandstructureswithaviewtochangingthemfornewbusinessornewfunctionalcapabilities•Redesigningoperationsinsupplychain,procurement,commercialorotherbusinessprocesses•Postmergerintegration•Delayreduction•Financialperformanceandanalysis•Developinggrowthmodelsintraditionalengineeringortransportationsectors•Businessandorganizationalperformanceandreporting•Implementingrevenuemanagementprocesses•Networkmanagement•Lifecyclecostanalysis•Bestvalueandefficiencyreviews•Identificationofkeyperformanceindicators•Investmentappraisal•Definitionofoptimalcapitalstructure•Operationalperformanceimprovement•CapitalallocationanalysisCorporate&businessunitstrategyCorporate&businessunitstrategyRevenue&growthmanagementRevenue&growthmanagementOperational&organizationalrestructuringOperational&organizationalrestructuringValuebasedmanagementValuebasedmanagementSelectedRBtransportandlogisticsclientsSource:RolandBergerStrategyConsultants7LON-04539-003-01-02B.Executivesummary8LON-04539-003-01-02CentralRailwayisproposingapointtopointlorryshuttletrainservicebetweennorthernEnglandandnorthwestEurope•CentralRailwayisproposingarailwaysystem(theRailway)betweennorthernEnglandandnorthwestEurope•TheCentralRailwaypropositionisbaseduponpointtopointlorryshuttletrains•TheRailwaywillbeuniqueinBritaininbeingabletohandlecontinentalaswellasUKfreighttrainsandwillcarrydetachedlorrytrailers(unaccompanied)orwholelorrytrains(accompanied)•RolandBergerpreparedarevenuecaseforCentralRailwayin1999andconductedanaudittoupdatetheresultsin20019LON-04539-003-01-02CurrentpredictionsforCentralRailwayareforanominalrevenuerangeof£1.4billionto£1.6billionafterthreeyearsofoperations•Updated2001marketandrevenuefigureswerederivedfrompre-existingworkbyRolandBergerin1999•The2001updateshowsthattheCentralRailwayservicewouldbeonaverage7%cheaperthanthelowestcostroadroutefor57%ofthevolumeofthetargetRoRosegment•Withswitchingoccuringataminimumcostsavingof5%ora10%cumulativeaveragecostsaving,CentralRailwayshouldachieve35%ofthemarket•GrowthintheRoRomarkethasvariedbetween6%and7%.TheCentralRailwayrevenueopportunityin2011wouldbe:–nominalrevenuesof£1,404millionatagrowthrateof6%–nominalrevenuesof£1,601millionatagrowthrateof7%10LON-04539-003-01-02TheUKtoEuropeRoRofreightmarketisgrowingrapidlywithregionaloriginanddestinationpatternsthatsuitCentralRailway’slikelycompetitiveadvantage•MarketgrowthforRoRohasexceededearlierforecasts–atcurrentgrowthratesthemarketwillbe25%largeratthetimeofCRopeningthanwaslastforecastin1999at9.4milliontripsversus7.5milliontrips•ThedevelopmentofregionalO/D(originanddestination)patternssince1995hasfavouredCentralRailway–bothUKandcontinentalO/DtrafficflowshaveincreasedintheareaswheretheRailwayisexpectedtobemostcompetitive–theongoingconsolidationofproducers’andtransporters’distributionfacilitiesinnorthwestEuropeisconcentratedintheareaswhereCentralRailwayisexpectedtobemostcompetitiveSource:RolandBergerStrategyConsultants11LON-04539-003-01-02Althoughferryrateshavefallenbetween1997and2000,thishasbeenpartiallyoffsetbyincreasedroadhaulagecosts•Roadtransportcostshaveincreasedby12%(5%inrealterms)between1998and2