中国生产性服务贸易结构与贸易竞争力分析

2010231997,Michaely,,,,1.;2.:F831:A:100726964[2010]022090901206583(:07BGJ008)(:07AJL016)FDI:(:09YJA790158)2070,,,,,1970700,200732600,3746.6,1/5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,19824420083060.4,69.6,17%,,19822820087,,,,,9420102,Machlup(1962),,Green2field(1966),,BrowningSingle2mann(1975)Martinelli(1991),,(2004),,,,Markusen(1989),Francois(1990),,VanMarrewijk(1997),Markusen(2005),,,,,,WTO(GATS)12142;(IMF)(BPM5),12,(2008);(2009)(UNCTAD),,,6,,,1997,1997,,,1997;21,,,,,,,,208090,,05201021.19972008(1)1(19972008):19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200812.020.222.325.720.028.336.242.657.773.5123.7204.2(%)4.98.58.58.46.07.17.76.87.78.010.113.936.440.046.453.562.490.2109.9138.2165.3209.1256.1326.7(%)13.015.014.714.815.919.419.919.219.820.719.720.648.460.268.779.282.4118.5146.1180.8222.8282.6379.8530.9(%)9.211.911.911.911.313.714.313.414.114.715.117.3-24.4-19.8-24.1-27.8-42.4-61.9-73.7-95.6-107.6-135.6-132.4-122.5-34.0-27.8-53.4-56.0-59.3-67.8-85.7-97.0-93.9-88.3-79.0-118.1:(19972008),6()1,1997,,1997122008204.2,1217;36.4326.7,9;199748.42008530.9,11,2005200,,138%,,,,,2.(2),,,15%,3/4,,,1%,,127,21,2(19972008):%1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720081.00.80.60.70.81.00.80.70.70.80.81.04.44.25.02.82.22.12.21.91.92.02.22.73.86.66.26.96.97.08.38.68.78.88.28.01.20.60.50.30.20.20.40.20.20.90.40.40.81.30.70.70.92.51.91.72.01.71.72.02.01.62.63.65.06.86.56.36.46.66.36.513.015.014.814.815.919.419.919.219.720.719.720.6:(19972008)3.(3),0.2%,,0.3%4.2%,,,15201023(19972008):%1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720081.13.42.34.50.81.41.40.70.70.81.01.12.42.53.82.02.53.22.82.43.53.04.47.00.71.60.80.40.70.50.70.60.70.60.70.90.10.10.40.30.30.10.30.20.20.20.20.20.30.61.01.21.41.62.42.62.53.23.64.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.20.40.20.20.30.44.98.58.58.46.07.17.76.87.88.010.113.9:(19972008),,19974.9%200813.9%,,,(TC)(RCA),,,Michaely,,,1.(TC)(TC),,:TCi=(Xi-Mi)/(Xi+Mi)TCii;Xii;MiiTCi[-1,1],1,;-1,4TC,4(TC)(19972008)199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008-0.06-0.05-0.09-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.07-0.06-0.05-0.03-0.04-0.50-0.33-0.35-0.35-0.51-0.52-0.50-0.53-0.48-0.48-0.35-0.23-0.030.600.510.70-0.09-0.080.20-0.04-0.11-0.020.040.02-0.34-0.31-0.22-0.25-0.010.130.040.050.230.150.300.41-0.71-0.64-0.81-0.92-0.85-0.88-0.87-0.88-0.86-0.88-0.84-0.84-0.84-0.72-0.20-0.110.12-0.28-0.21-0.19-0.05-0.72-0.41-0.28-0.47-0.430.090.150.14-0.280.030.130.060.260.330.33-0.82-0.74-0.83-0.88-0.89-0.92-0.94-0.90-0.94-0.94-0.92-0.90:(19972008),TC,,,,,TC-0.50,,,2006,2008-0.23,,,,,,,2520102,2005,2006TC,,TC2001,,,,,1:;,;,,;,TC-0.80,;,TC0,1TC2.Michaely(MI)Michaely,:MI=Xi/Xi-Mi/MiXiMii,XiMiMI[-1,1],,MI552,Michaely,,MichaelyMI,Michaely,,,,MI1997-0.06072008-0.0360,,TC5Michaely(MI,%)(19972008)199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008-6.07-5.87-5.27-3.83-3.66-3.52-2.71-2.37-2.90-3.91-3.57-3.60-8.23-6.65-6.46-6.40-9.91-12.39-12.23-12.44-12.07-12.80-9.56-6.680.062.641.623.79-0.010.380.600.49-0.070.050.130.12-1.95-1.74-1.21-0.780.351.070.620.491.560.962.164.28-3.06-5.03-5.42-6.53-6.26-6.51-7.65-7.88-7.91-8.20-7.46-7.08-1.06-0.50-0.12-0.020.10-0.07-0.10-0.040.00-0.72-0.24-0.14-0.49-0.700.290.440.52-0.840.000.890.541.501.862.26-1.73-1.32-2.27-3.31-4.63-6.42-6.24-5.90-6.19-6.38-6.01-6.11:(19972008)35201022Michaely(MI)MI,MI-0.0600,-0.1200,,,2006,MI,,TCMI,;MI0,,;,MI,,Michaely,,:,,,,,,20%10%,19902005,37.5%47.8%,,,,,,,,,1992,(1994),,,,0,,,,:,,,,,4520102,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[1],..,2004(11).[2],.:.,2009(2).[3],..,2008(11).[4]Browning,H.C.,Singlemann,J.TheEmergenceofaServ2iceSociety.Springfield,1975.[5]Francois,J.F.TradeinProducerServicesandReturnsDuetoSpecializationunderMonopolisticCompetition.CanadianJournalofEconomics,1990,23:1092124.[6]Greenfield,H.Manpowerandthegrowthofproducerserv2ices.NewYork:ColumbiaUPress,1966.[7]Machlup,F.TheProductionandDistributionofKnowledgeintheUnitedStates.NewJersey:PrincetonUniversityPress,1962.[8]Markusen,J.R.TradeinProducerServicesandinOtherSpe2cializedIntermediateInputs.AmericanEconomicReview,1989,79:85295.[9]Markusen,J.,Rutherford,T.,Tarr,D.TradeandDirectIn2vestmentinProducerServicesandtheDomesticMarketforEx2pertise.CanadianJournalofEconomics,2005,38(3):7582777.[10]Marrewijk,C.,J.Stibora,A.Vaal,J.M.Viaene.ProducerServices,ComparativeAdvantageandInternationalTradePat2terns.JournalofInternationalEconomics,1997,42:1952220.[11]Martinelli,F.A.Demand2orientedApproachtoUnderstandingProducerServices.inP.W.DanielsandF.Moulaert(eds.).TheChangingGeographyofAdvancedProducerServices.Lon2donBelhavenPress,1991.(:)55WorldEconomyStudyNo.2,2010(SerialNo.192)20102RMBsettlementofcross2bordertradeandoffshorefinancialmarketsynergistically.EvaluationonMutualEffectofInterestRateandExchangeRatebetweenChinaandU.S.:AnEmpiricalStudyontheBasisofCoveredInterest2rateParityTheoryLiuWeiWuHong(32)Aftermakingempiricalstudyonthemutualeffectmechanismbetweeninterestrateandexchangerate,wecouldfindsomeresultsasfollowing.Firstly,ChinasinterestratepolicyhaslittleeffectonSino2U.S.exchangerateandinterestratepolicyoftheU.S.A.,althoughChinasinterestrateisGrangercauseofSino2U.S.exchangerateandinterestr