营销人员聘用管理模拟研究

华中科技大学博士学位论文营销人员聘用管理模拟研究姓名：刘凤霞申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：黎志成20040423I-ArenaIIIIIAbstractTheachievingofproductvalueisessentialtoacompany’ssurvivalanddevelopment,andthesuccessofthesellingorganizationliesonthesalespeopleitrecruits.Ontheissuesofsalespeoplerecruiting,thescholarshavemaderesearchfromdifferentviewpointssuchaspsychology,marketing,humanresource,organizationbehavior,andhavegotmanyvaluableconclusions.Progressonsomenewtechnology,forinstanceArtificialintelligence,qualitativesimulation,andsoon,providedsomenewwaysfortakingadvantageoftheseconclusionsandperfectingtherecruitingfunction.Thechiefissueofrecruitmentisperformanceforecasting.Thisdissertationanalyzesdiversifiedfactorswhichaffectperformance,sumsupaframeworkforperformanceforecasting,throughwhichcomplexrelationsbetweenthefactorsandsellingoutcomesmaybesortedorderly,andexplainsthereasonforadoptingtheconvexfuzzynumberforthesemanticdefinition.Basedonthegeneralformationofuncertainreasoningformula,combinedwiththefuzzymatchusingpairsofnecessity-possibilitymeasures,aconceptfuzzyreliabilitywasfurtherdefined.Furthermore,thereasoningprocessisdesigned,andthesalesforceselectingqualitativereasoningmodelbasedonfuzzylogicwasestablished.Themodelexplorednotonlyfromtheapplicantbeingselectedindividually,butalsotrytofindouthowtodealwiththematchbetweentheschemecomposedbysomeapplicantsandtherequirementofcompany.Themodelexploresnotonlyfromtheapplicantbeingselectedindividually,butalsotriestofindouthowtodealwiththematchbetweentheschemecomposedbysomeapplicantsandtherequirementofcompany.Beingaspecialmethoddealingwiththeuncertainknowledge,qualitativesimulationisanewerwayforsolvingcomplicatedquestion.Currentapplicationismainlycenteredonthenaturalarea,suchasphysicsandbiology.Inthesocialandeconomicfields,majorityoftheapplicationremainsinthelabandisdifficulttoputintopractice.Sothedifferencesexistinginstatetransferring,temporalinformationdisposingandconstraintexpressingbetweenthephysicalsystemandthesocialandeconomicsystemareanalyzed,andtheadvancedmethodoffuzzyqualitativesimulationbasedonthevariable-categorizingisbroughtforward.Inthismethod,thestandardizationforrevisingtheresultofcomputeisdesigned,andthetemporalinformationisimportedintheconstraints.ThechiefissueistoestimatetheoptimalsizeofsalespeopleintheSalesHRM.Throughtheanalysisofinfluencefromthedistributionofgovernabletimeoneithertheinformationgatheringorsellingeffort,IVtheexplorationofcarryoverinducedbytheinformationandtheperformance,thediscussionofthequalitativerelationshipinvolvingthesalespromotionefficiencyandperformanceappraisal,thefuzzyqualitativesimulationmodelofsalespeople’ssizeoptimizingisbuilt.Oneofthecharacteristicofthesellingjobishighturnoverrate,astheresult,thesellingorganizationcannotkeeponitsoptimalsize,whichexplainsthenecessityofconstitutingtherecruitingpolicy.Withthesalespeople’sturnoverandrecruiting,theactualnumberofsalespeoplewillfluctuatearoundtheoptimalsize,andthecostofvacantterritorieswillarisewiththeactualpersonnelgoingundertheoptimalsizeaswellasthecostofexcesspersonnelwithgoingbeyond.Throughtheanalysisofcorrelativecostandtheimpactiveelementsofrecruitingpolicy,thedissertationtransformstherecruitingpolicydecision-makingintotheissueforconfirmingtheproportionofsalespeople’snumbertotheoptimalsizeatthetimeofre-recruitingandtheproportionofover-recruiting.Byregardingtheturnoverandthearrivalposttimeofnewemployeesasrandomvariable,thesimulationmodelofsales-forcerecruitingpolicyisputforward.Intheend,itisimplementedbyusingArenasimulationsoftware.Thearchetypeofthesales-forcerecruitingmanagementsystemisimplementedthroughtheintegrationofsales-forceselectingfuzzyqualitativereasoningsystemandsales-forcesizeestimatingqualitativesimulationsystem.Thearchitectureandmainmodulefunctionofarchetypeisanalyzed,andthefuzzymatch,theprocessofuncertaintyreasoninginselectingsystemaswellasthedataorganizationandthesimulationcontrolmechanisminestimatingsystemisdissertated.Keywords:Salesforce,Recruitingandselecting,Sizeoptimizing,Recruitingpolicy,Fuzzymatching,Qualitativesimulation111.170271029[1][2][3][4]2[5]1.21.2.11)Ganasan[6]Gitomer[7]Segalla[8]Gerchak()[9]3MathewsRedman[10]Weiss“”258[11]WTO,[12]2)(1)[13]1315[14]RIAS4EC1.1ESCRECSAI1.1(2)Blois[15]()5()[16]HunterSchmidt[17]RobertsonKinder[18]Sternberg=++[19](street-smarts)Churchill[20][21][22][23]Barker[24]Adler[25](),,[26]Drakeley6[27][28]Widmier[29][30](LakeWobegoneffect)[31](work-sampletests)[32]“”“”7CallinanRobertson[33][34]3)Yashiv[35](1)Louis[36][37][38]8[39][40]GrantBush[41](OVC)Evans[42][43]Dubinsky[44]1.29.52.70.33.21.29.38.49.18.33.69.341.48.49.561.2(2)123Flaherty[45]()[46]DefillppiAruthur10[47]Sullivan[48]4)Boudreau[49]—1.2.2Blattberg[50][51][52][53]vanBruggen[54]SinhaZoltners253[55]Lilien[3]1.3()()Lodish1982Syntex[56]ADBUDG[57]Rangaswamy[58]Syntex()LilienLeeflang[59]LodishCALLPLAN[60][61]HessGEOLINE[62]MantralaMSZ[63]11GEOLINEyyyyy/SyntexCALLPLANyyyMSZ1.31.2.3[64]Lucas[65]Tyagi[66]ITIT[67]10%15%[68]Marshall[69]Darmon[70]121.2.4SimonIwasaskideKleerFobusKuipers1984[71]1986[72]Kuipers1.4