Cycle业务进展情况汇报-PowerPointPre

Cycle业务进展情况汇报研究所预测室Cycle配置•WPS(v2.2)+WRFVAR+WRF(v2.2)•27和9km区域：–WSM6显式微物理方案，–Kain-Fritsch对流参数化方案(cu=99),–YSU边界层方案，–RRTM长波辐射方案，–Goddard短波辐射方案，–辐射方案每15分钟计算一次，–Noahland-surfacemodel。•Cycle时间间隔：3小时，每天共计8次循环；1200UTC起始的循环为冷启动，其他时次为暖启动。•对27/9km同时进行WRFVAR分析和循环，并进行18小时预报。•每个Cycle预报从启动到后处理结束所需的墙钟时间约为38分钟。Cycle背景场及边界条件获取•AVN资料每日获取四次，获取时间分别为（北京时）：•1200UTC:01:30•1800UTC:07:00•0000UTC:11:50•0600UTC:19:00–为保证赶上预报时效，1200UTC起始的冷启动预报采用0600UTC的6小时预报场作为变分同化的背景场；其余时次采用最近一次的AVN预报场来形成边界条件。同化资料•SYNOP和AMDAR资料目前已用于实时同化，目前正在编写TEMP的接口程序。•GPS和AWS这两种局地资料的实时同化已经基本解决。–Gps资料：实时资料可以在约60-90分钟内获得。–Aws资料：实时资料在20分钟内可以获得。脚本•曙光计算机：•工作目录：/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF–run_job:脚本存放目录；–BE-inter:WRFVAR工作目录；–WPSV2.2:WPS工作目录；–WRFV2/data/yewu/cycle-WRF/WRFV2.2链接到WRF主模式目录；–Result:存放cycle运行结果及中间数据；•产品目录：9210serverB(172.18.3.3)/IUM/operation/Cycle定时作业情况[yewu@gnode34run_job]$crontab-l#DONOTEDITTHISFILE-editthemasterandreinstall.#(cron-cycleinstalledonMonMay2108:43:562007)#(Cronversion--$Id:crontab.c,v2.131994/01/1703:20:37vixieExp$)#0,302,5,7,10,14,16,19***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle.log2&1#0,300,5,6,9,13,15,18,21***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle.log2&13021***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle-12.log2&13000***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle-15.log2&10005***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle-18.log2&13006***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle-21.log2&13009***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle-00.log2&13013***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle-03.log2&13015***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle-06.log2&13018***/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/run_wrf.csh.d12.NIWOT/data1/yewu/cycle-WRF/run_job/cycle-09.log2&1*每个时次的cycle循环预报基本上均可以在启动起始时刻后的90分钟开始，但18UTC和03UTC的作业由于要避开MM5冷启动业务作业而推迟了2.5-3小时。CYCLE起始预报时刻（UTC）CYCLE起始时刻相应的北京时初边条件获取情况本地资料获取时间（北京时间）作业启动时间（北京时间）计算完成时间（北京时间）产品生成时间（北京时间）说明0008上次cycle的3小时预报场为同化背景场，1800UTC起始的AVN6-24小时预报场插值形成边界条件AWS:9:00GPS:9:059:3009:5210:080311上次cycle的3小时预报场为同化背景场，1800UTC起始的AVN6-30小时预报场插值形成边界条件AWS:12:00GPS:12:0513:3013:5214:08因MM5冷启动作业推迟本次循环启动时间0614上次cycle的3小时预报场为同化背景场，0000UTC起始的AVN6-24小时预报场插值形成边界条件AWS:15:00GPS:15:0515:3015:5216:080917上次cycle的3小时预报场为同化背景场，0000UTC起始的AVN6-30小时预报场插值形成边界条件AWS:18:00GPS:18:0518:3018:5219:0812200600UTC起始的AVN6小时预报场为同化背景场，6-24小时预报场为边界条件AWS:21:00GPS:21:0521:3021:5222:08冷启动1523上次cycle的3小时预报场为同化背景场，0600UTC起始的AVN6-30小时预报场插值形成边界条件AWS:00:00GPS:00:050:3000:5201:081802上次cycle的3小时预报场为同化背景场，1200UTC起始的AVN6-24小时预报场插值形成边界条件AWS:03:00GPS:03:0505:0005:2206:00因MM5冷启动作业推迟本次循环启动时间2105上次cycle的3小时预报场为同化背景场，1200UTC起始的AVN6-30小时预报场插值形成边界条件AWS:06:00GPS:06:0506:3006:5207:08应急备份方案•对于无法及时获得冷启动背景场的情况：–目前1200UTC冷启动的背景场由0600UTC的6小时预报场生成，对于未能及时获得0600UTC资料的情况，脚本能够自动判断并采用0000UTC的12小时预报场生成同化背景场；若0000UTC的AVN资料也无法获得，即寻找前一日1800UTC的18小时预报场…依此类推，最多可以在7个时次的AVN资料缺席的情况下仍然能够保证Cycle的正常运行。–T213资料目前无netcdf格式的输出，国家气象中心已提供相关的数据处理程序，目前正在调试中，很快T213资料即可用作WRF模式的备份背景场资料。Cycle产品说明9210serverB(172.18.3.3)/IUM/operation/Cycle200705201220070520152007052018VAPOR_SURVAPOR_2KMPPDBZVCAPE_WINDSTATION_FCST…•短时暴雨潜势预报产品：–VAPOR_SUR:综合图1——地面混合比和湿度辐合叠加上风场–VAPOR_2KM:综合图2——深层湿度辐合（0-2km水气通量辐合）•冰雹潜势预报产品：–CAPE_WIND:综合图1——将-10C到-30C之间的对流有效位能CAPE、500hpa和地面风矢量差、0度层的高度的等值线叠加–PPDBZV:综合图2——-20C等温面上反射率因子分布和0C层高度等值线叠加显示•地面气象要素预报产品：–STATION_FCST：降水量、气温、相对湿度、风要素相应每小时数值产品文本（时序图需进一步处理）Cycle产品实例——短时暴雨潜势预报产品（2007052300起始的03-18小时预报）深层湿度辐合（0-2km水气通量辐合）Cycle产品实例——短时暴雨潜势预报产品（2007052300起始的03-18小时预报）地面混合比和湿度辐合叠加上风场Cycle产品实例——冰雹潜势预报产品（2007052300起始的03-18小时预报）-10C到-30C之间的对流有效位能CAPE、500hpa和地面风矢量差、0度层的高度的等值线叠加Cycle产品实例——冰雹潜势预报产品（2007052300起始的03-18小时预报）-20C等温面上反射率因子分布和0C层高度等值线叠加显示Cycle产品实例——地面气象要素预报产品文本（2007052300起始的01-18小时预报）T2m.dat---2米温度A1007A101754399A1031A1013A1019A1010A1003A1018A10095449954398A1001A1008A14035440654416544195442454431544335450554511545135451454594545962007-05-23_0120.720.720.420.020.420.020.320.820.820.818.320.520.820.715.713.819.018.821.421.220.820.020.820.020.320.720.02007-05-23_0222.822.822.522.222.522.222.322.722.722.721.622.822.722.820.518.922.522.023.923.222.722.222.722.222.322.421.82007-05-23_0323.923.923.222.723.222.722.923.623.623.423.524.123.623.922.722.524.524.025.424.223.622.723.422.722.923.022.32007-05-23_0424.024.023.423.023.423.023.023.823.823.623.724.323.824.023.022.824.924.225.524.323.823.023.623.023.023.222.52007-05-23_0524.424.423.723.423.723.423.223.923.923.624.524.723.924.423.523.225.425.025.424.423.923.423.623.423.223.222.7Uvd10m.dat---10米风向A1007A101754399A1031A1013A1019A1010A1003A1018A10095449954398A1001A1008A14035440654416544195442454431544335450554511545135451454594545962007-05-23_0131.431.4100.8102.4100.8102.4146.9292.8292.858.8308.925.9292.831.4304.8333.259.0275.852.7282.0292.8102.458.8102