飞轮电池生产计划的制定1

1飞轮电池生产计划的制定1.市场需求预测-----------------------------22.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析---------------53.生产方式的经济分析和比较-----------------54.制定综合生产计划-------------------------75.生产能力的粗平衡-------------------------76.制定主生产计划---------------------------87.制定MRP,CRP------------------------------88.生产能力的精平衡-------------------------219.零件工序卡编制---------------------------2110.产品装配工序卡编制-----------------------2321.市场需求预测（Marketforecast）实验数据Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926year1，Q19year1，Q218year1，Q324year1，Q421year2，Q110year2，Q220year2，Q327year2，Q423year3，Q111year3，Q222year3，Q329year3，Q426由折线图分析可知：飞轮电池的需求量具有明显的季节性变化，而不同年份相同月份的需求量呈明显的线性关系方案一：SeasonalizedTimeSeiriesRegression的模型来进行市场预测。预测过程及结果如下：***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***918242110202723112229260510152025303512345678910111205101520253035123系列1系列2系列3系列43-------------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:张超-------------------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARSEASONACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0252110.00019.3279.6640.3362220.00019.77619.7760.2242327.00020.22426.9660.0342423.00020.67324.1181.1183111.00021.12110.5610.4393222.00021.57021.5700.4303329.00022.01829.3580.3583426.00022.46726.2120.212-------------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)YEARSEASONFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND4111.45810.91012.0064223.36422.26824.4604331.75030.28933.2124428.30527.02629.584REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167方案二：TIMESERIESREGRESSION模型进行预测4预测过程及结果如下：***TIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-----------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:zc-----------------------------------------------------SalesSalesABSOLUTEPERIODACTUALFORECASTERROR19.00014.8465.846218.00015.7832.217324.00016.7207.280421.00017.6573.343510.00018.5948.594620.00019.5310.469727.00020.4696.531823.00021.4061.594911.00022.34311.3431022.00023.2801.2801129.00024.2174.7831226.00025.1540.846-----------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)PERIODFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND1326.09114.97437.208REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=13.9091b=0.9371R=0.500R-SQUARE=0.2501MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=2.303MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=31.369MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.0STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=6.1354从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以经过比较我采取第一种预测方法。预测结果如下：Month1Month2Month3Month4Year41223322952.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(ProductProcessAnalysis)零件代号零件名称零件工艺过程生产提前期12345MLF-03外壳锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05外转子电机套筒锻造焊接车削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-07-03电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰铸造车削精车钻孔、扩孔线切割2MLF-07-04电磁铁铁芯锻造1MLF-07-05电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰铸造车削精车钻孔、扩孔线切割2MLF-07-06电磁铁夹紧装置铸造铣削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-09-01盘片铸造热处理车削精车钻孔、扩孔2MLF-09-02磁环模锻车削铣削1MLF-09-03压环铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-11底板锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-12电器定位板铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔23.生产方式的经济分析与比较(AlternativePlansComparison)Machinecapacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemblecapacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产28台。首先，计算两种计划一年招聘、解雇工人人数和年平均库存61234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory1122472018224247200332247200429247200Matchingdemand11212360542242472360332328412042929840089101112InventoryaddingorsubtractionBeginninginventoryEndinginventoryAverageinventorypermonthAverageinventoryperyear1210221616.8750222222(8)221418(5)14911.500000000000000000然后，计算两种方案的总成本1234567AggregateplanTotalannualnumberofworkershiredTotalannualnumberofworkerslaidoffAverageannualinventoryAnnualhiringandlayoffcostAnnualinventorycarryingcostTotalannualsubtractioncostTotalannualincrementaloperatingcostLevelcapacity01816.87510805332.506412.5Matchingdemand4854037200(4+1)*180012720备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matchingdemand生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协7第三月份有32-28=4台需要外协，第四月份有29-28=1台需要外协。总的Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000＄再考虑到工人工资，则总的费用如下：Costoflevelcapacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Costofmatchingdemand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的费用Costofmatchingdemand-Costoflevelcapacity=123120-121612.5=1507.5。Levelcapacity比Matchingdemand的花费更少。如果采用加班加班：每台成本600*2.5=1500外协：每台成本1800因为对于matchingdemand中第三月和第四月共缺5台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通过比较可以看出，外泄和加班的费用差不多，但Levelcapacity的生产方式比Matchingdemand生产方式更加稳定；Levelcapacity生产方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matchingdemand的变动更小，有利于和工会之间关系的维持；在Levelcapacity生产方式中有8台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需求。综合以上因素，选择Levelcapacity生产方式。4.制定综合生产计划(AggregatePlanning)1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory11224720182242472003322472004292472005.生产能力粗平衡(Rough-CutCapacityPlanni