贝恩咨询分析方法-Ratioanalysis2

Author:CollinsQianRatioAnalysisMarch1998RatioAnalysisBOS2Agenda•Usingratios•Typesofkeyratios–profitability–turnover–leverage–liquidity–coverage•ReturnonEquity•Ratioexercises•Forecastingexercise•Abbreviations•KeytakeawaysRatioAnalysisBOS3AnalyzingRatiosRatiosinisolationaremeaningless.Acompany'sratiosmustbeexaminedovertimeand/oragainstitscompetitors’ratios.HistoricalcomparisonCompetitivecomparison•Comparepresentratioswithsamecompany'shistoricalratios•Instablesituations,historicalratiosmaybeusedtoprojectfutureperformance•Compareacompany’sratioswithsimilarfirms’ratiosorwithindustryaveragesatthesamepointintimeLookfortrendsLookatrelativeperformanceRatioAnalysisBOS4TheArtofRatioAnalysis•Whichratiosaremostimportantinagivensituation?•Whatitemsshouldbeincluded/excludedincalculatingtheratios?•Howmuchinfluencedoesmanagementhaveovertheratios?•Whatdotheratiossayaboutthefirm’sstrategy?Ratioanalysisisanartaswellasascience.RatioAnalysisBOS5TheNeedforJudgmentPotentialProblem•ManagementcansubstantiallyinfluencefinancialsintheshorttermImplications•NeedtousejudgmenttounderstandfinancialsRatioanalysisrequireskeenjudgment.•Financialstatementdataishistorical,notproforma•Cross-companycomparisonsaremeaninglessifadjustmentsarenotmadefordifferentaccountingconventions•Thetimingofthereportingperiodinfluencesfundsflowsandrequirements•NeedtounderstandthathistorydoesNOTnecessarilypredictfuture•Needtobeverysensitiveaboutindustry-specificseasonalityandcyclicality•NeedtostandardizeacrosscompaniestoadjustfordifferentaccountingmethodsRatioAnalysisBOS6Agenda•Usingratios•Typesofkeyratios–profitability–turnover–leverage–liquidity–coverage•ReturnonEquity•Ratioexercises•Forecastingexercise•Abbreviations•KeytakeawaysRatioAnalysisBOS7TypesofRatiosRatioshelpusunderstandhowwellacompanyisperforming.Specifically,howmuchreturnisitgeneratingwithwhatlevelofrisk?Howwelldoesthecompanymanagecostsrelativetorevenues?ReturnRiskCoverage•Interestcharge•FixedchargecoverageLiquidity•Currentratio•QuickratioLeverage•Assettoequity•Debttoequity•DebttototalcapitalTurnover•Receivables•Inventory•Payables•AssetProfitability•Operatingmargin•ROS•GrossmarginHoweffectiveisthecompanyinmanagingitsresources?Whataretherespectiveclaimsofdebtandequityowners?Howriskyisthebusiness?Isthecompanyabletomeetitsshort-termobligations?Isthecompanyabletomeetitslong-termobligations?RatioAnalysisBOS8ProfitabilityRatios-Definitions*Thisisnotaprofitabilityratio,butitdoesimpactROSProfitabilityratiosuselineitemsfromtheincomestatement.RatiosDefinitionsGrossprofitmargin(orgrossmargin)Sales-costofgoodssoldSalesOperatingprofitmargin(oroperatingmargin)EarningsbeforeinterestandtaxesSalesReturnonsales(ROS)ProfitaftertaxSalesEffectivetaxrate*TaxesProfitbeforetaxRatioAnalysisBOS9ProfitabilityRatios-Description•Profitability(ormargin)ratiosareafunctionofboththeindustryandacompany'spositionwithintheindustry–boundariesaresetbytheoperatingcharacteristicsoftheindustry–withintheseboundariesprofitabilityratiosaredeterminedbyaplayer’srelativeposition•Baintypicallyusesgrossprofitandoperatingprofittomeasureprofitability–ROScanbealteredbynon-operatingactivities,suchassourcesoffinancingortaxratemanipulations•Extraordinaryitems,becausetheyareforunusualevents,suchasdiscontinueditemsorassetsales,areexcludedwhenweanalyzetheperformanceofthebasebusinessProfitabilityratiosmeasureafirm’sabilitytomanagecostsrelativetorevenues.RatioAnalysisBOS10ProfitabilityRatios-OverTime•Grossprofitmarginshouldstayconstantorincreasebecausecostofgoodssoldshouldbeaconstantpercentofsalesorshoulddecreaseascompanygetspriceincreasesand/orvolumediscounts•Operatingmarginshouldincreaseasfixedadministrativeandsalescostsarespreadoveragreaternumberofunits•EffectivetaxrateshouldstayconstantordecreasesincealargerfirmisabletotakeadvantageofmoretaxsheltersAsacompanygrows,itsreturnonsalesshouldincrease.HigherreturnonsalesRatioAnalysisBOS11ProfitabilityRatios-MarketLeader•Grossprofitmarginshouldbehighersinceamarketleadercantypicallychargemoreforitsgoodsand/orreceivethegreatestvolumediscountsfromsuppliers•Operatingprofitmarginshouldbesignificantlyhigher,becausehighervolumemeansfixedcostsarespreadovermoreunitsandbecausethegrossprofitmarginishigher•Thereshouldbenosignificantdifferenceintheeffectivetaxrate•ReturnonsalesshouldbesignificantlyhigherbecausetheoperatingmarginshouldbesignificantlyhigherThemarketleaderinanindustryshouldhavethebestprofitabilityratios.ThisisconsistentwiththeROS/RMSconceptwhichsaysthatcompanieswithhighrelativemarketsharehavehighreturnsonsalesRatioAnalysisBOS12TurnoverRatios-DefinitionsNote:Average=(YearBeginning+YearEnd)/2*Salesisoftenagoodproxy**Costofgoodssoldisoftenagoodproxy***Typicallyweuse365days(i.e.,1year)fortheperiodTurnoverratiosuseacombinationofincomestatementandbalancesheetitems.RatiosDefinitionsReceivablesturnoverCreditsalesinperiod*AccountsreceivableaveragebalanceInventoryturnoverCostofgoodssoldinperiodAverageinventoryinperiodPayablesturnoverPurchasesonaccount**AccountspayableaveragebalanceAssetturnoverSalesinperiodAverageassetsAny