我国大豆产业发展趋势与对策

:2005-09-18;:2005-09-28:,1971,,,;:(:2004BA5420A14)20057(6)ReviewofChinaAgriculturalScienceandTechnology431,1,2,1,1,1(1.,100094;2,102206):综述了我国大豆在世界大豆产业地位大豆产业当前存在的问题大豆生产能力分析及未来发展的主要对策结果表明,近40年来我国大豆生产无论是从种植面积还是总产都处于下降趋势根据比较效益资源条件等预测,未来我国大豆最大可能的生产面积为1172.6万hm2,最大生产能力为3800万t,我国成为大豆进口大国的趋势不可逆转因此,加强大豆新品种选育加强人才建设培养加强大豆优势产业带建设成为解决当前问题的重大举措:大豆;现状;产业带;综述:F307.12:A:1008-0864(2005)06-0043-06,5000,,2050,,,2070901996,,,20032200,t?11.1,196142%,(1):1961)1977,11961)2000Fig.1ThedynamicofsoybeanplantareainChinaanditsproportiontotheworldfrom1961to200019611000hm21977690hm2,20hm2;,19612400hm219774200hm2,100hm2,19611200hm2686hm242%16.3%1978)20001978,,11.1%~16.1%1991,705hm2,1993,946hm2,19784640hm2200073400hm2,,,1978700hm2540hm21961)200210,,(1)44ReviewofChinaAgriculturalScienceandTechnology11040Table1Changeoffronttencountriesaboutplantareaforfortyyears(104hm2)196119711981199120012002CountryCropareasCountryCropareasCountryCropareasCountryCropareasCountryCropareasCountryCropareasWorld2381.7World3003.2World5047.6World5496.5World7607.8World7916.8USA1092.8USA1728.2USA2677.5USA2347.6USA2953.2USA2905.6China1000.7China782.4Brazil850.1Brazil961.7Brazil1393.1Brazil1631.4Russian70.2Brazil171.6China802.5China704.5Argentina1031.8Argentina1140.0Indonesia62.5Russian86.8Argentina188.0Argentina477.5China910.0China942.0Korea30.0Indonesia68.0Russian86.4India318.5India600.0India555.0Japan29.1Korea28.1Indonesia81.0Indonesia136.8Paraguay135.0Paraguay144.5Corea29.0Corea27.5India47.5Russian80.8Canada106.9Canada97.1Brazil24.1Nigeria20.0Paraguay39.6Canada59.8Indonesia72.3Indonesia81.6Nigeria16.3Canada14.9Mexico36.2Paraguay55.3Nigeria59.5Bolivia63.4Canada8.6Rumania14.7Rumania31.0Indonesia46.8Bolivia55.6Nigeria59.55(%)Fivecountrytoworld94.794.591.287.590.590.610(%)Tencountrytoworld99.298.095.394.496.296.3:FAO(2003)Notes:StatisticsfromFAO21961)2000Fig.2ThetotalsoybeanproductionofChinaandtheproportiontotheworldfrom1961to20001.23:1961)1977,,,;,,,1978)1990,,19781062kg/hm2,19901455kg/hm2,37%,,451991)2000,19941600,t,,1300t1500t,19991790kg/hm2,,10%,2,,2.1,,,,2.11~3.86;,,8%~25%,2.2,1996,,2000,1275,t200220031953.3t2255,t1.181.41;1992)2003,,2003,2900,t19925.78,75.2%;,20031992380,t(2)21992)2003Table2Thestructureofdemand,totalamountofdemand,totalproduction,andthegapbetweendemandandsupplyofChinasoybeanfrom1992to2003(104t)(Year)Sort199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003Oilsqueezing502755797814885976109616402022188026502900Foodandindustry470550580590610630660680740760860850Seed273635312831323634364450Import3011039222017192220252530Total102914511451145715431654180723782816270135793830Production103115321601135113231474137614251541154116511600Balance+2+81+150-106-220-180-431-953-1275-1160-1928-22302.3,,,,,,20021788.2kg/hm2,38hm22644.5kg/hm2,18hm22829kg/hm2,(2594kg/hm2),3000kg/hm2,2.4,,2250kg/hm2,1.50~1.56/kg;,55%,,,,,46ReviewofChinaAgriculturalScienceandTechnology2.5,,666.7hm2,106000,3000t500,33.1()()1949,,,,70%(3),,952.6hm2,220hm2,1172.6hm2,2003182.6hm231949)2003Fig.3ThedynamicofproportionforsoybeanplantareaofHuanghuaihaiPlainandNortheasttoChinafrom1949to20033.240,19611128.7kg/hm22338.4kg/hm2,107.18%,1.8%;1961626kg/hm220011625kg/hm2,41961)2001Fig.4Thedynamicofyieldforworld,China,andthemainareaofChinafrom1961to20002.4%,,,,,19611690kg/hm2,19772055kg/hm2,1.2%;2000kg/hm22500kg/hm215,1.5%1992,2500kg/hm2;19611127kg/hm219982366kg/hm2,2.0%;3.0%;1961)19982.3%,,,20202550kg/hm2,;20303232.6kg/hm2,(19973802kg/hm2,1990)19983495kg/hm2),20203000,t20303800t,20205000,t20305500t,20202000,t20301700t,4744.1,,,2000,1656kg/hm2,23.9%,54.7%44.9%41.3%;,1~2,,,4.2,667hm2,500,,,,,4.3,,,,,,,,,,,,,4.4/0,8.5,t62.6%;5.02,t37.4%,;,,80%,,,4.5,,1.2,,4.6,70%,95%,,80%,,,,,,20%,4.7,;,52090,,,,48ReviewofChinaAgriculturalScienceandTechnology,,,[1],,.[J].,2003,1:56~60[2],.[J].,2003,5:13~17[3].[J].,2003,1:27~33[4],,,.[J].,2003,24(4):36~39[5].()[J].,2003,8:15~18[6].()[J].,2003,9:9~13[7].[J].,2003,2:9~11[8]./0[J].,2003,2:25~29[9],,.[J].,2004,1:60~64[10],,,.[J].,2003,18(4):430~436[11].[J].,2003,1:28~30ThePresentSituation,ProblemsandComtermeasuresofSoybeanProductioninChinaZENGZhao-hai1,CHUQing-quan1,ZHAOXiao-meng2,HUYue-gao1,LUCheng1,KANGYu-fan1(1.CollegeofAgronomyandBiotechnology,ChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Beijing100094,Chian;2.DepartmentofBiotechnology,BeijingAgriculturalCollege,Beijing102206,Chian)Abstract:Inthearticle,worldstatus,recentproblems,futureproductionandcomtermeasuresofsoybeanarereviewedinChina.ItisestimatedthatthemaximumproductionofsoybeaninChinawillbe3800milliontons,thegapbetweendemandandsupplyisover1700milliontons.Undoubtly,Chinawillbecomeasoybeanimportcoun-tryintnefuture.Keywords:soybean;presentsituation;comtermeasures;review(责任编辑程俊源)在国家863计划现代农业技术主题的支持下,综合运用网络通讯技术,建立了国家省(自治区直辖市)县乡镇四级/多网合一0的综合信息服务网络平台,制定了农业信息资源标准,研究开发了26个中心数据库系统基于主流计算机技术,研究开发了50多个农业资源与农情信息管理,农业产业结构布局与优化配置信息系统动植物生产管理信息系统和农业企业购销存及农产品物流配送信息系统其中作物生产病虫害网络化远程诊断系统,通过农业病虫远程诊断图像库模型库和知识库的系统集成,建立农业病虫害网络远程诊断系统软件平台,实现农业病虫远程诊断技术的突破在虚拟农业方面,建立了基于数字化技术的植物形态结构信息采集系统与植物器官形态描述模型对玉米水稻等主要农物形态进行了三维数字化测定,构建了器官形态描述模型与参数库,实现了叶片生长过程中的三维空间取向规律与冠层空间光分布的三维