Ch16CountryRiskAnalysis(国际金融管理-山东大学,秦

CountryRiskAnalysis16ChapterSouth-Western/ThomsonLearning©2003Seec16.xlsforspreadsheetstoaccompanythischapter.C16-2ChapterObjectives•ToidentifythecommonfactorsusedbyMNCstomeasureacountry’spoliticalriskandfinancialrisk;•Toexplainthetechniquesusedtomeasurecountryrisk;and•ToexplainhowtheassessmentofcountryriskisusedbyMNCswhenmakingfinancialdecisions.C16-3CountryRiskAnalysis•Countryriskrepresentsthepotentiallyadverseimpactofacountry’senvironmentontheMNC’scashflows.C16-4CountryRiskAnalysis•Countryriskcanbeused:¤tomonitorcountrieswheretheMNCispresentlydoingbusiness;¤asascreeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;and¤toimprovetheanalysisusedinmakinglong-terminvestmentorfinancingdecisions.C16-5PoliticalRiskFactors•AttitudeofConsumersintheHostCountry¤Someconsumersmaybeveryloyaltohomemadeproducts.•AttitudeofHostGovernment¤Thehostgovernmentmayimposespecialrequirementsortaxes,restrictfundtransfers,subsidizelocalfirms,orfailtoenforcecopyrightlaws.C16-6PoliticalRiskFactors•BlockageofFundTransfers¤Fundsthatareblockedmaynotbeoptimallyused.•CurrencyInconvertibility¤TheMNCparentmayneedtoexchangeearningsforgoods.C16-7•War¤Internalandexternalbattles,oreventhethreatofwar,canhavedevastatingeffects.•Bureaucracy¤Bureaucracycancomplicatebusinesses.•Corruption¤Corruptioncanincreasethecostofconductingbusinessorreducerevenue.PoliticalRiskFactorsC16-8CorruptionPerceptionsIndexTheindex,whichispublishedbyTransparencyInternational,reflectsthedegreetowhichcorruptionisperceivedtoexistamongpublicofficialsandpoliticians.In2001,91countriesarerankedonacleanscoreof10.RankCountryScore1Finland9.93NewZealand9.44Singapore9.27Canada8.913U.K.8.314HongKong7.916Israel7.616U.S.A.7.618Chile7.520Germany7.421Japan7.1RankCountryScore23France6.726Botswana6.027Taiwan5.938SouthAfrica4.842SouthKorea4.246Brazil4.051Mexico3.757Argentina3.557China3.579Russia2.388Indonesia1.9C16-9•FindoutmoreaboutTransparencyInternationalandtheCorruptionPerceptionsIndexbyvisiting•CurrentandPotentialStateoftheCountry’sEconomy¤Arecessioncanseverelyreducedemand.¤FinancialdistresscanalsocausethegovernmenttorestrictMNCoperations.•IndicatorsofEconomicGrowth¤Acountry’seconomicgrowthisdependentonseveralfinancialfactors-interestrates,exchangerates,inflation,etc.C16-11•Whatarethepoliticalandfinancialoutlookforvariouscountries?OnlineApplication¤ConsulttheCountryCommercialGuidespreparedbyembassystaffat¤RefertotheCIA’sWorldFactbookat¤Visit•Amacro-assessmentofcountryriskisanoverallriskassessmentofacountrywithoutconsiderationoftheMNC’sbusiness.•Amicro-assessmentofcountryriskistheriskassessmentofacountryasrelatedtotheMNC’stypeofbusiness.C16-13TypesofCountryRiskAssessment•Theoverallassessmentofcountryriskthusconsistsof:Macro-politicalriskMacro-financialriskMicro-politicalriskMicro-financialriskC16-14•Notethattheopinionsofdifferentriskassessorsoftendifferduetosubjectivitiesin:¤identifyingtherelevantpoliticalandfinancialfactors,¤determiningtherelativeimportanceofeachfactor,and¤predictingthevaluesoffactorsthatcannotbemeasuredobjectively.TypesofCountryRiskAssessmentC16-15TechniquesofAssessingCountryRisk•Achecklistapproachinvolvesratingandweightingalltheidentifiedfactors,andthenconsolidatingtheratesandweightstoproduceanoverallassessment.•TheDelphitechniqueinvolvescollectingvariousindependentopinionsandthenaveragingandmeasuringthedispersionofthoseopinions.C16-16TechniquesofAssessingCountryRisk•Quantitativeanalysistechniqueslikeregressionanalysiscanbeappliedtohistoricaldatatoassessthesensitivityofabusinesstovariousriskfactors.•Inspectionvisitsinvolvetravelingtoacountryandmeetingwithgovernmentofficials,firmexecutives,and/orconsumerstoclarifyuncertainties.C16-17•Often,firmsuseavarietyoftechniquesformakingcountryriskassessments.•Forexample,theymayuseachecklistapproachtodevelopanoverallcountryriskrating,andsomeoftheothertechniquestoassignratingstothefactorsconsidered.TechniquesofAssessingCountryRiskC16-18DevelopingACountryRiskRating•Achecklistapproachwillrequirethefollowingsteps:Assignvaluesandweightstothepoliticalriskfactors.Multiplythefactorvalueswiththeirrespectiveweights,andsumuptogivethepoliticalriskrating.Derivethefinancialriskratingsimilarly.C16-19DevelopingACountryRiskRatingMultiplytheratingswiththeirrespectiveweights,andsumuptogivetheoverallcountryriskrating.Assignweightstothepoliticalandfinancialratingsaccordingtotheirperceivedimportance.•Achecklistapproachwillrequirethefollowingsteps:C16-20DevelopingACountryRiskRating•Differentcountryriskassessorshavetheirownindividualproceduresforquantifyingcountryrisk.•Althoughmostproceduresinvolveratingandweightingindividualriskfactors,thenumber,type,rating,andweightingofthefactorswillvarywiththecountrybeingassessed,aswellasthetypeofcorporateoperationsbeingplanned.C16-21DevelopingACountryRi