Forecastingexchangerate(国际金融-香港大学,WONGKa

1、1Forecastingexchangerate:part1WONGKaFu10thJanuary20012Ifyouarelookingforawhiteorblack,orblack&whitecat,Iamyourperfectchoice.3ContentAtasteoftechnicalanalysisAtasteoftime-seriesforecastingFundamentalanalysis:Factorsthataffectthemovementofexchangerates4Atasteoftechnicalanalysis5TechnicalanalysisTechnicalanalysisisamethodtoforecastpricemovementsofindividualcommoditiesand/orentiremarketsbylookingatpurelymarket-generatedstatistics-abstractsummariesofpriceactivity.6Threetenetsoftechnicalanalysts。

2、Allmarketfundamentalsaredepictedintheactualmarketdata.Historyrepeatsitself.Pricesmoveintrends.71.Allmarketfundamentalsaredepictedintheactualmarketdata.Thusactualmarketfundamentalsandvariousunquantifiablemetafactors,suchasthedifferingopinions,hopes,fears,andmoodsofmarketparticipants,neednotbestudied.82.Historyrepeatsitself.Historyrepeatsitself,suchthatmarketsmoveinfairlypredictable,oratleastquantifiable,patterns.Thesepatterns,generatedbypricemovement,arecalledsignals.Thegoalintechnicalanalysi。

3、sistouncoverthecurrentmarket'ssignalsbyexaminingpastmarketsignals.93.PricesmoveintrendsTechnicianstypicallydonotbelievethatpricefluctuationsarerandomandunpredictable.(Mostrejecttheweak-formexplanationofmarketefficiencyanddismisstherandomwalktheory.)Pricescanmoveinoneofthreedirections,up,downorsideways.Onceatrendinanyofthesedirectionsisineffectitusuallywillpersist.Apricechartwillusuallyindicatetheprevailingtrendascharacterizedbyaseriesofwaveswithobviouspeaksandtroughs.Itisthedirectionofthesepeak。

4、sandtroughsthatconstitutesthemarkettrend.Technicalanalysisattemptstodeterminethestrengthanddirectionofthetrendandthechangeinthetrenddirection.10ThebuildingblocksofanytechnicalanalysissystemincludePricechartsandTechnicalindicators,Botharemerelymathematicalrepresentationsofmarketpatternsandbehaviors.Forecastingmodelsusuallyincludeatleastonetypeofindicatorinrelationtoaparticulartypeofpricechartandlookfordivergenceorcontinuitybetweenindicatorsandpricetodeterminethevalidityofatrend.11Someofthepri。

5、cechartsusedintechnicalanalysis:Chartpatternsarehillsandvalleys,shapesandcurvesthatdevelopovertimeonachartwhichoftenindicatechangesinpricedirection.Candlestickpatternarelikebarchartspatterns.Itcanbeusedtoforecastthemarket.Becauseoftheircoloredbodies,candlesticksvisuallyrepresentgreaterdetailintheirchartpatternsthanbarcharts.Pointandfigurepatternsareessentiallythesamepatternsfoundinbarchartsbuttransposedonchartswithnotimescale1213HeadandShouldersareareversalpatternconsistingofthreepricepeaks,t。

6、hemiddlebeingthelargest.It'spotentialintheoppositedirectionismeasuredbythedistancefromtopofmiddle(head)tothebase(neckline).Thispricedistanceisextrapolatedfromnecklineatthepointofbreakout.14Doubletopsanddoublebottomsarereversalpatternsconsistingoftwopeakswithapricevalley.Toconfirmpattern,pricesmustformapullback(declinebelowandclosebelowpreviouslyestablishedlow).Topredictmovesize,measureheightfromhightolowandprojectunderbeltline(Viceversafordoublebottom)15Flagsandpennantsarecontinuationpatterns,us。

7、uallyapauseinfast,oralmostvertical,pricemovement.Flagsareintheshapeofaparallelogram,whilepennantsareveryshorttriangles.16Broadeningisareversalpatternusuallyfoundattrendpeaksratherthanlows.17Trianglescanbecontinuationandreversalpatterns,thisusuallydeterminedbythedirectionwhichtheypoint.Confirmationisatbreakout,andthestrongestsignalsarewhenbreakoutoccursbetween1/2and3/4thetrianglelength.Ascendingtriangles:bullishDescendingtriangles:bearishSymmetricaltriangles:neutral1819Saucersarereversalpatternsw。

8、hichareslowandroundinginform(attheendofamove).Noclearbreakoutsignalsoccurbecauseitissoslow;noclearSupport/Resistanceareasarefoundeither.Thispatterncanlastalongtime.Beonthelookoutforanytrendingactivity.20Gapsareareasinchartswherenotradingoccursandareusuallycontinuationpatterns.Runawaygapshavestrongfundamentalsbehindmove,arenotquicklyfilled.Exhaustiongapsareusuallythelargestgap,usuallyfilled,andhaveblow-offcharacteristics.Breakawaygapsareatendofpricepatternorwhenbreakingmajorsupport(orresistance),。

9、andareusuallyfilled.21Candlesticks22PointandFigurechartsInapointandfigurechart,X'sareforadvancingpricesand0'sarefordecliningprices.Whenthemarketreversesdirectionbythedefinedamount,anewcolumnstartstotherightatthecorrespondingpricelevel.Ifthepricemovesineitherdirectionbylessthanthecertainamount(theminimuminterval),nonewmarkswillbemade,nomatterhowmuchtimepasses.23SomeoftheTechnicalindicatorsusedintechnicalanalysis:Trendindicatorssmoothvariablepricedatatocreateacompositeofmarketdirection.Marketstr。

10、engthindicatorsdescribetheintensityofmarketopinionwithreferencetoapricebyexaminingthemarketpositionstakenbyvariousmarketparticipants.Volatilityindicatorsdescribethesizeofday-to-daypricefluctuationsindependentoftheirdirection.Cycleindicatorsdeterminethetimingofaparticularmarketpatterns.24SomeoftheTechnicalindicatorsusedintechnicalanalysis:Supportandresistanceindicatorsdescribethepricelevelswheremarketsrepeatedlyreverse.Momentumindicatorsdeterminethelatentstrengthorweaknessofatrendasitprogresse。