世界银行：XXXX年全球经济展望

2010Crisis,Finance,andGrowth2010GlobalEconomicProspectsGlobalEconomicProspectsGlobalEconomicProspects2010GlobalEconomicProspectsCrisis,Finance,andGrowth©2010TheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashingtonDC20433Telephone:[phone]Internet:@worldbank.orgAllrightsreserved123413121110ThisvolumeisaproductofthestaffoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisvolumedonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveDirectorsofTheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgementonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.RightsandPermissionsThematerialinthispublicationiscopyrighted.Copyingand/ortransmittingportionsorallofthisworkwithoutpermissionmaybeaviolationofapplicablelaw.TheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsworkandwillnormallygrantpermissiontoreproduceportionsoftheworkpromptly.Forpermissiontophotocopyorreprintanypartofthiswork,pleasesendarequestwithcompleteinformationtotheCopyrightClearanceCenterInc.,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,USA;telephone:[phone];fax:[phone];Internet::202-522-2422;e-mail:[e-mail]:978-0-8213-8226-4eISBN:978-0-8213-8227-1DOI:10.1596/978-0-8213-8226-4ISSN:1014-8906Coverphotos:©iStockphoto.com/burakpekakcan(sky);©iStockphoto.com/mikeuk(sea)Coverdesign:CriticalStagesThecutoffdateforthedatausedinthisreportwasJanuary8,2010.DollarsarecurrentU.S.dollarsunlessotherwiseindicated.ForewordxiAcknowledgmentsxiiiAbbreviationsxvOverview1Theacutephaseofthecrisisisover1Impactoftheboomperiodondeveloping-countrypotential4Medium-termimplicationsofthebustforfinanceindevelopingcountries8Medium-termimpactonthesupplypotentialofdevelopingcountries12Conclusion14References14Chapter1ProspectsforDevelopingEconomies15Recentdevelopmentsinfinancialmarkets18Globalgrowth22Prospectsforhigh-incomecountries23Prospectsfordevelopingeconomies25Regionaloutlooks26Commoditymarkets31Inflation35Worldtrade36Narrowingglobalexternalpaymentimbalances38Uncertainprospects39Theimpactofthecrisisontheverypoor41Policyimplicationsfordevelopingcountries42Notes43References44Chapter2TheImpactoftheBoominGlobalFinanceonDevelopingCountries45Financialinnovation,high-incomefinance,andtheliquidityboom47Novelchannelsforcreditcreation50Developing-countryfinanceduringtheboom53vContentsReal-sideconsequencesofthesurgeinglobalfinance61Concludingremarks70Notes71References72Chapter3Medium-TermImpactsoftheCrisisonFinanceandGrowthinDevelopingCountries75Theimpactofpost-crisisregulatoryandstructuralchanges77Implicationsofapotentialdeveloping-countryretreatfromfinancialintegration88Theimpactofhigherborrowingcosts94Strategiesfordealingwithaweakerinternationalfinancesystem104Implicationsfortheglobalbalancebetweensavingsandinvestment107Conclusion108Notes109References112Appendix:RegionalEconomicProspects117EastAsiaandthePacific117EuropeandCentralAsia123LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean131MiddleEastandNorthAfrica139SouthAsia146Sub-SaharanAfrica154Notes163References164FiguresO.1Financialconditionshavestabilized2O.2Developmentsinhigh-incomecountrieshavedriventheindustrialproductioncycle2O.3Thedownturnindevelopingcountrieshasbeendeeperandmorebroadlybasedthanduringpreviousrecessions3O.4Selectedindicatorsofmacroeconomicstabilityindevelopingcountries,20075O.5Thecostofriskinhigh-incomecountriesfellsharplyduringtheboom6O.6Developing-countrypotentialoutputgrowthwasboostedbylowborrowingcosts7O.7Foreignparticipationinselectedemergingequitymarkets9O.8FDIasashareofinvestmentindevelopingcountries,1995−200810O.9Veryvolatileexternaldebtflowsposeseriousmacroeconomicchallenges10O.10Indicatorsofregulatoryquality12O.11Privatecreditprovisionisstronglycorrelatedwithpercapitaincomes12O.12Higherborrowingcostsresultinapermanentdeclineindeveloping-countryGDP131.1Financialmarkets’stabilizationhaspartiallyrestoredpre-crisisfinancialconditionsindevelopingcountries191.2Syndicatedbanklendingbyregion,2008and2009201.3FDIflowstodevelopingcountries211.4ExternalfinancingneedsasashareofGDP,201022Contentsvi1.5Growthinindustrialproduction231.6ChangeinstockbuildingasacontributiontoGDPgrowthinG-3countries241.7DispersionofGDPgrowthresultsinthefirstquarterof2009251.8China’sstimulusprogramyieldedapickupinimportdemand271.9NonperformingloansriseacrossmuchofEuropeandCentralAsia281.10InLatinAmericaEMBI-strippedspreadsretreatasinvestorconfidencereturns281.11Loweroilpricesandproductionyieldsharpdeclineinoilrevenuesduring2009301.12SouthAsia’sexternalpositionimprovesinmostcountriesonloweroilpricesanddeclineind