中国农村金融发展状况分析

324Vol132No1420064JournalofFinanceandEconomicsApr12006(,100871):,:;;;,:;;:F83016:A:100129952(2006)04O0103O12,,;(,2004),,,,,,;,,,:(,1969),,(,1973)(,1979),:2006212220:(1976-),,,301,,,(,2002),:,1,(M0),,,M01,,;,1(%)(%)1980525451465556534919856572645968746660199068746661717869621995687364637277726419997483706780877870200076837268818778722001778473688288817320027987747083898175:,M2GDP,Mckinnon(1973),(,1988)M2GDP,2,199529172%200141127%,Goldsmith(1969)(FIR)(1995),FIR(M2+L+S)/GNP,M2,L,S,,GDP,FIR(2)2,FIR199548195%200166154%Goldsmith(1969),,FIR1/51/240120064,FIR1,19932001,2M2/GDPFIRL/GDP:%M2/GDPFIRL/GDP199332121581952617419943014149166191241995291724819519121199630182511182013219973219354171211651998351356010524156199937172631682517720003914563189241092001411276615424197:;M2(2004);,,;GDP,FIR,FIR,(),,,FIR,(3),3,()198619911995,3():%1986444939401987505844421988545850501989606557531990677658611991717763691995435135381996516040431997596852471998637949471999698354562000768962582001769263562003811046453:,;,,,M2/GDP:;,;501:;,,,(,2001)FIRM2/GDP(),FIR,,:(,1979),:;,,(),,200311()1148,199420041,200312,()2674612,,1148:,;,;4(19962002)()()(%)()()(%)19962110614669147011440167712414901009199751271573914701033-251319233100-012741998-91138211169-0111111398211169010171999-31557938191-01045014979381910100620002197218481850101412155770812301163200111152252791001046118476981530102420022819729765166010970134764417201005:(19972003)4,,,60120064,,()1:,119992004,20048(),2001,1,,,5,5,,,,2001,,35159%,7148(,2003)5:%200120022003141921913515136231371612924112271512212115117911225172918221522514121124351064211301073616330166:20032;(2004);2004924,200336%2090,,,701:,,,,;,(,2005)()20022135%(,2004)3141%(,2004),8%2004,(20049,87138%),(,2004)8%,,,,;,,,(,2004),,,:,(1969),,;,6,,,,;,,,,;6:%199753156819621819985918671464101999631468106610200073147514741520017714751576142002811075157813:80120064,,,,,,19986,199711,,,(7),,,,;,(,2004)719982000()(%)5412718204181646424113771514:(),2080,,1996,1/9,,45%,24%,(,2004),,(Brandt,ParkWang;2001)(Park,2001),199719981999,,(),,(8),,(,2003)901:8:10000()589195518691333332135370713172486007821727:(%)2193008341125318921455882117439393105263221313043:(2003):2:,2003,2(,2002)LevineZervos(1998),,,Levine(1996),,,,ArestisDemetriadesLuintel(2001),GDP(L/GDP),,L/GDPFIRM2/GDP(2),(2)2,2090,,,,(,2000;,2003);01120064,,,,1994,(,2003)(2001),,,,,,(,2004),,,(9),,,,,,9:%198654774835538819875477433051711988537635204763198953662919384819904355271832481991536525173043199521341710243319962133211326341997323421172330199832341913213619992133148152520003126158153620013235161016342003322517121434:,,9,,,2003,17%,,111::,,,,;,;,,;,,,,,,,,,,:(2002),,1999182133%,,,GDP,1993,2002,,83%(1566),616%(124),,,(,2004)(2005),,,(2004)2000016820%(,2001;IFAD,2001),20036,25%,3/4(,2004):[1].[J].,2004,(8):10151[2]1[J]1,1995,(5):10121[3]1:[J]1,2000,(2):34391[4]1M2/GDP(1980-2000):[J]1,2001,(2):312121120064[5],1[J]1,2001,(1):10531[6],1:[J]1,2003,(6):3131[7]1:[J]1,2004,(6):4141[8]1[J]1,2005,(1):72781[9],1[J]1,2003,(4):93981[10],1[J]1,2004,(12):34441[11],,1[J]1,2004,(3):1251351[12],1[J]1,2003,(4):2121[13]1[J]1,2003,(6):2151[14]1[J]1,2004,(9):27311[15],1[J]1(),2005,(1):14191[16],,1[J]1(),2002,(2):1051091[17],,1[J]1(),2004,(3):10171[18]1[Z]1,No1C20030261[19]1[EB/OL]1[20]1[EB/OL]1[21]1[EB/OL]1[22]1:[EB/OL]150,2001671[23],1[N]1,2004O09O291[24]1[N]1,2003O06O091[25]1[M]1:,20021[26]1[M]1:,19941[27]1[M]1:,19881311:[28]1[M]1:,19961[29]G,S1[M]1:,19941[30]ArestisP,DemetriadesP,LuintelB1Financialdevelopmentandeconomicgrowth:Theroleofstockmarkets[J]1JournalofMoney,CreditandBnking,2001,33(1),16411[31]LevineR,ZervosS1Stockmarkets,bank,andeconomicgrowth[J]1AmericanEco2nomicReview,June1998:5375581[32]LevineR1Financialdevelopmentandeconomicgrowth:Viewsandagenda[R]1IMFWorkingPaper,1996:16781[33]ParkAlbert,LorenBrandt,JohnGiles1Givingcreditwherecreditisdue:Thechan2gingroleofruralfinancialinstitutionsinChina[R]1PaperSubmittedfortheAnnualmeetingoftheAssociationforAsianStudiesheldinChicago,ILduringMarch1316,unpublished,19971[34]BrandtLoren,AlbertPark,WangSangui1AreChinasfinancialreformsleavingthepoorbehind?[R]1PaperPresentedattheConferenceonFinancialSectorReforminChi2na,1113Sep1,20011[35]IFAD1RuralfinancialservicesinChina[R]1ThematicStudy1VolumeIOMainReport1ReportNo11147-CNRev111December,20011AnEvaluationontheFinancialDevelopmentStatusofChinasRuralAreaYAOYaoOjun(ChineseCenterforEconomicResearch,PekingUniversity,Beijing100871,China)Abstract:AthoroughknowledgeoffinancialdevelopmentstatusinruralareaofChinaisnecessaryinordertoreviewtheruralfinancialreform.U2singasetofrelativelycompleteindicessuppliedbythemodernfinancialde2velopmenttheory,thefinancialdevelopmentlevelinChinasruralareaissystematicallysummarizedandanalyzed.Themaincharacteristicsofruralfi2nancialdevelopmentstatusareasfollows:ruralmonetarylevelisrising,fi2nancialorganizationsarein