太湖水系运输系统规划

20049TAIHUWATERTRANSPORTATIONSYSTEMPROGRAMMINGABSTRACTOnSept.,2004,theFirstHighLevelForumoftheWorldMegaCitiesDevelopmentwasheldinJiangsuNantong,China,whichstandsfortheYangtseDeltabecomesthesixthWorldMegaCities.Thefreightincreasecomeswiththeeconomydevelopment.It’sarealchallengefortheTaihuWaterSystem.ThetransportationsystemofTaihuisformedwiththreeparts:thesea-route,theportandthefleet.Thestepstoprogrammingare,modeltheinland-watertransportationandchoosetheeconomicalstyles.Accordingtothethruputofthemainports,weusecurveimitationtopredictthefuturethruput,comparewithlayoutinexistenceandfindthebottleneck,thenadvancethesuggestion;Lodgethereconstructplanningforthebarge-trainandconstitutegreatsizefleet.KEYWORDSTaihuWaterSystem,thruputprediction,sea-routegrade,sea-routeflow,motorbargepush-train2004123031.11.1.1[1]5025002506640(10)9654816013.81.565002090201003.56700061104014.5460044.5365010.011.351.1.220012.2%10.4%22.1%24.5%28.5%200219141.6220012160.6118.7%20011435408.76208017801601.71581010006152002GDP1000127620033851520046939861384398380779676787572737572347096680258405810549451124930200230202050[2]1.1.3123.2()186ABCDEF312[3]1.21.2.17365001000120001.2.21.2.PESTSWOT3.82.1123.25333.413.50.37%24000.17%34003.1%1012%1314%“”[3]PictureofMainWaterSysteminTaihuArea962.1.1100012000ConditionoftheSea-routeinTaihuWatersystem2-222StructureofSea-routeinTaihuWaterSystem1011122.1.2[6]18000630082002823135TZ5144312188402.1.35080[11]2.250142.2.1a.[4][5][13]ComplexionofJiangnanCanal1.130.22.15108.63.130.2323.82.0201503001000b.[4][5]208.55300ComplexionofLongHushengSea-routec.[4][5]1615784.7500ComplexionofSushengwaigangSea-route17d.[4][5]61.6453.6115.24ComplexionofSushengneigangSea-route182.453.62.83.62.2.219ComplexionoftheSea-routeTransitCapability2003200219781980200220032.2.319952003Stat.OfPort’sThruputinTaihuDistrict,;20012002202.3[13][14][15]G(VE)()jivva,=()ijwaw=GsvtvPGsvtvPP()Pwsvtvsvtv0P()()PwPwPmin0=GsvtvP0Psvtv0Psvtv()tsvvd,()tsvvd,()0=i{}svS=0()0=svP()0=svlsvv≠()+∞=vT()Mv=lsk=(1)VSi=iSv∈()()vPvvdi=,(2)(2)()Avvjk∈,Svj∉jv()()kjkjwvPvT+()jvT()kjkwvP+()jvlk(3)(3)()(){}jSvjivTvTij∉=min()+∞jivTjivTP()()vjiTvPji={}jiiivSS∪=+1ijk=i1+i(1)iSv∈()()vPvvdi=,iSv∉()()vTvvdi=,G(V,E)[]jivv,ivjvjviv[]jivvw,210≥ijw(2)()Avvjk∈,Svj∉jv(2)[]Evvjk∈,Svj∉jvsv2.422NetworkofTaihuWaterSystem1121[4][5][12][16][18]232.4.12.2.11995-2003200020012003FreightofShanghaiinTaihuWaterArea2-320022002309524FreightofEveryPortintheWaterNet2.4.2232324S122-1012SSSS2-725PredigestNetworkofTaihuWaterSystem1249.7km100.8km132.97km30.1km36.7km58.3km186.23km133.39kmS111.61km37.01km71.9km108.6km262.4.32.3G(VE)S1S1S220.1km2S2S111.61kmSS183.09kmSS133.39kmSS191.27kmSS163.07.kmSS241.57km95.00km66.80km145.30km71.9km88.4km100.8km[17]273.13.1.1[18][19]x(t)t1t2t3tntt1t2tnx(t1)x(t2)x(tn)GNP,,ARMA-ARMA50ARMA283.1.2[20]()∃yft=3-1∃yaatatatss=+++++0122Λ3-22xcxbay*+*+=MXXXYT=3-4⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=2222121111nnxxxxxxXΛΛΛ⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=nyyyYΜ21⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=cbaMM29[22]()2iiixcxbay*+*+-------3-5()[]22iiixcxbay*+*+-------3-6()()()()nnnnnnyxyxyxcyxyxyxbyyyayyyA222212122112122221+++-+++-+++-+++=ΛΛΛΛ------3-7()()()()[]nxcxbaxcxbaxcxbayyyQnnn2222221122221*+*+++*+*++*+*+-+++=ΛΛ3-8QABnl-=13-9()21Bnlrnl=------3-103.22-10CurveofShanghaiFreshwaterThruput30CurveofWuxiThruputCurveofHangzhouThruputCurveofHuzhouThruput31CurveofJiaxingThruputCurveofZhangjiagangThruputCurveofJiangyinThruput327.198049.33636.472+-=xxy9.132361.179486.342+-=xxy1.1718155203.322+-=xxy5.125292.27428.432+-=xxy52.46572.30034.62++=xxy9.112193.167754.512+-=xxy43.42025.100843.342+-=xxySimulationAnalysisofShanghaiFreshwaterThruputA208270.5Q5281589Bnl0.039433rnl0.982004-201020023033ThruputForecastforPortsinTaihuWaterSystem3.33.3.1[2]120024400201044002402[23]343154502414122002200244002402191916062024209510743146402316401.1520113.9620113.965010056.9820113.96244827.3520113.96142815.9520113.96122413.682-7CompareoftheFreightQuantity2002200383.3.22002201035FreightQuantityfrom2004to20102.4PassesFreightQuantityForecastforApieceSea-route36StructuralFigureofTaihuLakeWaterSystemPESTSWOT374.14.1.11GBJ139-90199181GBJ139-90ComplexionofMajorSea-route’sGradeintheWaterNet330mW50mB10.8mW/B4.631.6-2.0m8m260mW40mB9.2mW/B4.351.3-1.6m958m4.1.2PEST13820WTO220042[2]139CompareBetweenTaihuWaterSystemandForeignFamousFreshwatersystem[27]2401/41002003[26]2003381[27]2413[16][28]199615020002000289.11TEU60A.GraphofFreshwaterContainerThruputduring1997-2000B.2002243.7TEU84.245.315.642200283.22TEU43.7TEU78.31TEU83.77TEUAccomplishmentofFreshwaterContainerQuantityAccordingtoArea20602005500TEU4.1.3SWOT120031.8212km3.2km/km2438a.b.c.d.e.32003GDPEconomyofTaihuWaterSystemHinterlandGDPGDP4041/21/3ChangeCompareofDifferentTransportation5[29]13513040150446012003104001000519925-8200257163044.3212m1m66[30]212004200420204522001882002198420027302003714200510001006011.8MileageCompareofFreewayinJiangsu,Zhejiang&Shanghai2020744464.1.4[31][32]1.82.3.4.1.5[33][34][35]47FlowoftheSea-routeReconstruct1.12ParametersofEverySea-route48[18]()JLtvWQ+××=4-1QWvkm/ht907884hLmJm0.8TheMaxPassAbilityofApieceSea-rout