艾媒研报：2019年瑞幸咖啡(Luckin-coffee)燃烧的资本-暴走的“小蓝杯”

1,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,5002,7002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,400上证综指餐饮指数（中信)艾媒咨询iiMediaResearch瑞幸咖啡燃烧的资本，暴走的“小蓝杯”核心观点：1、公司概况：（1）公司简介：跃居中国第二大连锁咖啡店。截至2018年底，瑞幸咖啡线下门店总数突破2000家，消费人数达1254万，销售超过8968万杯。成为中国规模仅次于星巴克的第二大连锁咖啡店。（2）融资状况：两轮融资长成行业独角兽。瑞幸咖啡2018年4月和12月A、B轮累计融资4亿美，估值达到22亿美元。2、行业分析：（1）中国咖啡市场的发展历程。美国星巴克在迄今已在中国开店3700多家，其倡导的“第三空间”开始在中国落地生根。（2）中国咖啡市场现状：存量小，但市场潜力大。下游的产业链价值贡献达90%以上。现磨咖啡增长潜力巨大，星巴克一家独大。3、发展模式：多元化精准营销+低价策略，定位刚需人群（1）营销方式：社交裂变+低价策略，砸开中低端消费市场。（2）运作方式：密集布局自营门店，全程APP交易，线下体验一般。（3）竞争对手：意指星巴克，潜在竞争对手为便利店、速溶咖啡。（4）发展模式分析：低价策略持续获取和保留客户，用户留存率一般。4、财务分析：（1）亏损严重，营业成本支出过大。瑞幸咖啡2018年投入运营第一年，营收1.17亿美元，亏损约2.32亿美元。（2）盈利前景堪忧，2019年大概率继续亏损。根据iiMediaResearch（艾媒咨询）预测，在单杯均价8.74元条件下，瑞幸咖啡可以做到119,116万杯至221,216万杯的范围，亏损范围在负129,603万元和负98,765万元之间。5、挑战与机遇：挑战篇（1）中国茶文化底蕴深厚，现磨咖啡刚需市场小；（2）管理粗糙，咖啡品质参差不齐；（3）短期内资金缺口大，盈利成难题。机遇篇（1）中长期来看，现磨咖啡市场需求将逐步增加；（2）管理层运作经验丰富，资本号召力强。公公司研究报告1MainHighlightCompanyProfile:(1)companyoverview:ithasbecomethesecondlargestchaincoffeeshopinChina.Bytheendof2018,thenumberofofflinestoresofLuckincoffeehadexceeded2,000,with12.54millionconsumersandover89.68millioncupsofcoffeesold.IthasbecomethesecondlargestcoffeeshopchaininChinaafterStarbucks.2financingstatus:tworoundsoffinancinggrowintounicornsintheindustry.InAprilandDecember2018,Luckincoffeeraised400milliondollarsinseriesAandBfinancing,withanestimatedvalueof2.2billiondollars.IndustryAnalysis1thedevelopmentofChina'scoffeemarket:Starbuckshasopenedmorethan3,700storesinChinasofar,anditsthirdspacehasbeguntotakerootinChina.2theChinesecoffeemarketstatusquo:Thestockissmall,butthemarketpotentialislarge.Thevaluecontributionofthedownstreamindustrialchainismorethan90%.Thegrowthpotentialoffreshlygroundcoffeeishuge,andStarbucksistheonlyone.Thedevelopmentmodel:Diversifiedprecisionmarketing+lowpricestrategy,positioningpeopleinneed.(1)marketingmethod:Socialfission+low-pricestrategy,breakopenthemid-andlow-endconsumermarket.(2)operationmode:self-operatedstoresaredenselyarranged,andAPPtransactioncanbeusedthroughout,buttheofflineexperienceisgeneral.(3)competitors:referringtoStarbucks,thepotentialcompetitorsareconveniencestoresandinstantcoffee.(4)developmentmodelanalysis:lowpricestrategyisadoptedtocontinuouslyacquireandretaincustomers,andtheuserretentionrateisaverage.Financialanalysis:(1)seriouslossesandexcessiveoperatingcosts.Initsfirstyearofoperationin2018,Luckincoffeemade$117millioninprofitandlostabout$232million.(2)itsprofitoutlookisworrying,andthecompanyislikelytocontinuetolosemoneyin2019.AccordingtothepredictionofiiMediaResearch,undertheconditionoftheaveragepriceof8.74yuanpercup,Luckincoffeecanachievetherangeof11.9116millioncupsto2212.16millioncups,andthelossrangeisbetween-1296.03millionyuanand-987.65millionyuan.Challenges:(1)China'steacultureisprofound,freshlybrewedcoffeejusthasasmallmarket;(2)Managementisrough,qualityofcoffeeisuneven;(3)Short-termfundinggapislarge,andprofitabilitybecomesaproblem.Opportunities:(1)Inthemediumandlongterm,themarketdemandforfreshlygroundcoffeewillgetgraduallyincrease;(2)themanagementhasrichexperienceinoperationandrefinance.2341............................................................1122011-201960/.....................1432018................................................154............................................................................................15560/........................166....................................................................................18720191LuckincoffeeAPP....................208.........................................................................209....................................................................................22102019“”...................2311..............................................................2412APP..............................271320193..................................................2714LuckincoffeeAPP......................................................................................................................28157-11.............................................................3916..............................................................4017..........................................................................4051201420191..............................................102201812..............................253........................................................294............................................................315................................326............................................................3372019....................................................................348....................................................................3692019............................................................3667891.12017720181201820001254896820181.172.321.22014201913020182018412AB4587%2020191ReinoutSchakelSchakelTheInformationReuters2019IPOIPO20195-630101201420191披露日期融资企业地域融资轮次融资金额(万)融资币种2019年1月FISHEYE鱼眼咖啡北京市A----2018年12月瑞幸咖啡北京市B20,000美元2018年10月昊音通武汉市Angel800人民币元2018年5月友咖啡深圳市Pre-A3,500人民币元2018年4月瑞幸咖啡北京市A20,000美元2018年3月