全球第一大金融集团日本瑞穗金融集团-8月经济分析

EconomicOutlookforFY2005andFY2006August2005TheMizuhoResearchInstituteLtd.(MHRI)announcesitsoutlookontheeconomyforFY2005andFY2006subsequenttothereleaseofThePreliminaryQuarterlyEstimatesofGDP(“QE”)fortheApr-Junquarterof2005.Thekeypointsoftheoutlookareasfollows.*MHRIreleaseditspreviouseconomicoutlookonJune14,2005.TheOverseasEconomiesTheUSEconomyModerateexpansionarounditspotentialrateofeconomicgrowth2005:(previousoutlook)3.5%(currentoutlook)3.7%2006:(previousoutlook)3.3%(currentoutlook)3.4%TheEuroZoneEconomyStructuraladjustmentpressureswilllingerandserveasadraguponthepaceofeconomicgrowth2005:(previousoutlook)1.7%(currentoutlook)1.4%2006:(previousoutlook)2.0%(currentoutlook)1.8%TheAsianEconomiesRegionaleconomicgrowthwillpickupfrommid-2005astheregionemergesoutofaninventoryadjustmentcycle2005:(previousoutlook)6.4%(currentoutlook)6.4%2006:(previousoutlook)6.5%(currentoutlook)6.4%TheJapaneseEconomyFY2005Moderateeconomicrecoverydrivenbydomesticprivate-sectordemandRealGDP:(previousoutlook)1.5%(currentoutlook)1.9%NominalGDP:(previousoutlook)0.8%(currentoutlook)0.9%FY2006OngoingstrengthofdomesticdemandwillleadtotheendofdeflationRealGDP:(previousoutlook)1.8%(currentoutlook)1.9%NominalGDP:(previousoutlook)1.4%(currentoutlook)1.6%ThisEnglish-languagetranslationisbasedupontheoutlookinJapanesereleasedonAugust15,2005.Thispublicationiscompiledsolelyforthepurposeofprovidingreaderswithinformationandisinnowaymeanttoencouragereaderstobuyorsellfinancialinstruments.I.OverviewoftheglobaleconomyTheglobaleconomyslowedslightlyintheApr-Junquarterof2005TheglobaleconomyslowedslightlyintheApr-Junquarterof2005(Chart1).DespitesoliddomesticprivatesectorfinaldemandandexportsintheUS,thesharpdeclineofinventoryinvestmentservedasadragdownthepaceofUSgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inrealterms.Eurozoneeconomicgrowthalsosloweddownduetosluggishexports.TurningtotheAsianeconomies,China’srealGDPcontinuedtogrowastrong9.5%overayearago(o-y-a)andthenewlyindustrializedeconomies(NIEs)alsopickeduponthebackofexpectationsthatdemandforITanddigitalelectronicapplianceswouldrecover.Nevertheless,theASEANeconomyappearstohavesloweddown,giventhesurgeofcrudeoilprices.EventhoughtheJapaneseeconomyslowedsharplyduetotheadjustmentofinventoriespiledupduringtheJan-Marquarter,theeconomyasawholeexhibitedsolidgrowthgivenongoingexpansionofdomesticprivatesectorfinaldemandandtheupturnofexports.-4-202468200020012002200320042005(Q-o-q%change,p.a.)USJapanEurozoneSources:CabinetOffice,USDepartmentofCommerce,Eurostat.(CY)TheeconomiesaroundtheworldwilllikelyavertaseriousinventoryadjustmentandcontinuetogrowThetemporarysoftpatchoftheglobaleconomyisdue,mostlikely,tothefactthatalltheeconomieswerestandingatthebrinkofaninventoryadjustmentcycle.IntheUS,theinventorycycle(Chart2)indicatesthattheeconomyhadfallenintoaninventoryadjustmentphaseintheJan-Marquarterof2005.Nevertheless,theongoingstrengthofdemand(shipments)arekeepinginventoriesfrompilingupandhencekeepingtheeconomyfromfallingintoaseriousinventoryadjustment.TheeurozoneinventorycyclealsoindicatesthattheeconomyisatthebrinkofanadjustmentphaseintheApr-Junquarterof2005(Chart3).However,giventhepresenceofotherindicatorssignalingtheebbofsentimentthatthereareexcessiveinventories,asharpadjustmentisnotyetnecessaryatthisjuncture.InAsia,therearesignsthatunsoldstocksofcertaingoodsarepilingupinChina.Nevertheless,theinventorycycleisChart1:Globaleconomicgrowthreversingcourse(shiftingbackwardacrossthe45line)duetotheexportdriveandsteadygrowthofdomesticdemand,hencekeepingtheinventoryadjustmentbenign.WhileJapanisinaninventoryadjustmentphase,someofthesemovementsarestockpilingeffortsofapositivenature.InventoryadjustmentpressuresareindeedabatinginJapan(fordetails,refertoSectionII.TheJapaneseEconomy).Asshownabove,eventhoughthemajoreconomiesoftheworldareatthebrinkofaninventoryadjustmentphase,theyarestillstandingfirmandavertingamajoradjustment.Barringtheemergenceofthefollowingriskfactors,theoddsarehighthattheglobaleconomywillcontinuetoexpand.ThesurgeofcrudeoilpricesisthegreatestrisktotheglobaleconomyThesurgeofcrudeoilpricesisthegreatestrisktoglobaleconomicgrowth.TheWestTexasIntermediate(WTInear-termcontracts)–abenchmarkcrudeoilfuturesprice–hassurgedfrom$35/barrelatthebeginningof2004toahistoricalhighattheupper$60s/barrelinAugust2005.Tightsupply-demandandspeculatorsaredrivingupthepriceofcrudeoilTherecentsurgeofcrudeoilpricesstemsfromthecoincidenceofmultiplefactorsincludingthefollowing:(1)theriseofdemandaccompanyingsolidgrowthoftheglobaleconomy,drivenmainlybytheUSandChina,(2)theOPEC’sscantoutputcapacity,(3)therisksofsupplydisruptionsduetotheapproachinghurricaneseasonintheGulfofMexicowherethereisaconcentrationofoilsupplybases,and(4)theriseoftheriskpremiumduetoMiddleEastpoliticaluncertainties.Inaddition,theinfluxofspeculativemoneytothecrudeoilmarket,spurredbyriskfactorssuchas(3)and(4),amidtightsupplyconditionsaredrivinguppricesabovetheleveldeterminedbysupplyanddemand.Toprovideaforecastoncrudeoilpricetrendswiththeforegoingfactorsinmind,weexpectcrudeoildemandtofollowingarelatively