全球金融危机对亚洲的影响globalrecessiona

GlobalRecessionandItsImpactontheAsianEconomyDr.BernardoM.VillegasNovember2008BlackThursday1929StockMarketCrashPassiveFederalReserveSystemIgnoranceofKeynesianPumpPrimingPanicintheBankingSectorUnemploymentRateof25%CompleteDominanceoftheUSEconomyintheWorldWorldFinancialMarketIlliquidBlackMonday2008RealEstateBubbleProactiveFederalReserveSystemUSGovernmentPumpPrimingNoPanicintheBankingSectorNoCrashintheStockMarketUnemploymentRateManageableCountervailingPowerofEmergingMarketsLiquidityofSovereignFundsMassiveinterventionofEuropeangovernmentsGrowthRatesofMajorEconomiesF–forecastsSource:WorldEconomicOutlook,IMF,Oct2008TraditionalEnginesofGrowth0.01.02.03.04.02002200320042005200620072008F2009FUSEuroAreaJapanWorldGrowth(GDPGrowthRates)F–forecastsSource:WorldEconomicOutlook,IMF,Oct2008TraditionalEnginesofGrowthUS0.81.62.53.62.92.82.01.60.1EuroArea1.90.90.82.11.62.82.61.30.2Germany1.2…-0.21.20.83.02.51.80.2France1.91.01.12.51.92.22.20.80.2Italy1.80.5…1.50.61.81.5-0.1-0.2Spain3.62.73.13.33.63.93.71.4-0.2Netherlands1.90.10.32.22.03.43.52.31.0Japan0.20.31.42.71.92.42.10.70.5UnitedKingdom2.52.12.82.82.12.83.01.0-0.1Canada1.82.91.93.12.93.12.70.71.2Australia2.14.23.03.92.82.74.22.52.2200420052008F2009F20062007200220032001GlobalGrowthSlowdownFinancialmeltdownintheU.S.HighratesofinflationTightcreditdespitelowerinterestrateHighalbeitmoderatingfoodandfuelpricesSlowdownintheEUandJapanTheU.S.twin(fiscalandtrade)deficitscontinuetocauseconcernThreatstoWorldGrowthU.S.Economy:StillnoendtofinancialturmoilHugelossesinthefinancialsectorStilluncertainresultsofU.S.governmentbailoutsoffailingbanksPreviouslyrobustprivateconsumptionspendinghasbeendepressedbytheslumpinthehousingmarketRealGDPgrowthtofallfrom2.0%in2007to1.6%orlowerin2008EuroAreaEconomyActivityinWesternEuropegatheredmomentumin2006.GDPgrowthintheEuroareareached2.8%,doubleitspacein2005Slowingofgrowthin2008to1.3%from2.6%in2007FallinghousinginvestmentsGrowthshouldremainrelativelystrongerinGermanysustainedbygoodexportperformanceinthefaceofweakerconsumerdemandTheslowdownwillreflectanuptickinunemploymentintheEuroarea,especiallyinSpainJapaneseEconomyPoliticalinstabilitycausedbysuccessiveresignationsoftwoPrimeMinistersDespiteastrongerthanexpectedGDPoutturninthefirstquarterof2008,Japan’seconomicoutlookisweakfor2008and2009.TheyenweakenedagainsttheU.S.dollarinJunebutmaystrengthenifU.S.economycontinuestobetroubledbyfinancialcrisis.Consumerpriceswillrisein2008ReservesmaybeusedtohelpailingbanksintheAsianregionWorld’sLargestEconomiesCountryGDP(2007)GDPGrowth(%)CurrentAccount/Inflation(%)JoblessUS$BYearoveryearGDP2007(%)Yearoveryear(%)US13,8082.8-5.34.96.1Eurozone12,1821.40.23.6*7.5Japan4382**-3.04.92.44.2Germany3,3213.17.62.9*7.6China2,28010.111.34.74.0***Britain2,8041.5-3.85.25.7France2,5940.9-1.23.3*7.6Italy2,105-0.1-2.53.9*6.8Canada1436**0.30.93.56.1Brazil1,3146.10.16.37.6Russia1,2907.55.915.05.3India1,1017.9-1.411.5n.a.SouthKorea9704.80.65.13.1Mexico1,0232.8-0.65.54.25*Harmonizedfigures**Quarteronquarterannualized***Urbanend2007Sources:NationalGovernments,IMF,WorldBankGDPGrowthRatesAsianFinancialCrisisSoutheastAsia199619971998199920002001Indonesia7.84.7-13.10.84.93.3Malaysia10.07.3-7.46.18.30.4Philippines5.85.2-0.63.44.43.2Singapore7.78.5-0.16.910.3-2.0Thailand5.9-1.4-10.54.44.61.8VietNam9.38.25.84.86.8...199619971998199920002001EastAsiaChina,People'sRep.of9.68.87.87.18.07.3HongKong,China4.55.0-5.33.010.50.1Korea,Rep.of6.75.0-6.710.99.33.0Taipei,China6.16.74.65.45.9-1.9OthersIndia8.14.86.56.14.05.4Source:ADBKeyIndicators2002GDPGrowthRatesAsia:TheMostDynamicRegionSOUTHEASTASIA20042005200620072008F2009FIndonesia5.05.75.56.36.15.5Malaysia6.85.35.86.35.84.8Philippines6.45.05.47.24.43.8Singapore9.07.38.27.73.63.5Thailand6.34.55.14.84.74.5Vietnam7.88.48.28.56.35.5Source:WorldEconomicOutlook,Oct2008(IMF)NORTHEASTASIA20042005200620072008F2009FChina10.110.411.611.99.79.3HongKong8.57.17.06.44.13.5Korea,Republicof4.74.25.15.04.13.5Taiwan6.24.24.95.73.82.5OTHERSIndia7.99.19.89.37.96.9Source:WorldEconomicOutlook,Oct2008(IMF)EmergingEnginesofGrowthBRICA2007200720072008F2009F2008F2009FBrazil191.61,314.2180.15.23.55.75.1Russia141.61,291.0445.27.05.514.012.0India1,123.31,171.0249.67.96.97.96.7China1,320.03,280.11531.39.79.36.44.3ASEAN567.4*1073.9*368.8*5.45.49.46.9*2006availabledataSources:IMFWorldEconomicOutlook(Oct2008);WorldBankKeyDevelopmentData&StatisticsADBAsianDevelopmentOutlook2008Update(September2008);(inMillions)GDPValue(incurrentprices,US$B)ForeignExchangeReserves(US$B)EmergingEnginesofGrowthTheNextElevenPopulation2007GDP2007(inmillions)(currentUS$B)Bangladesh158.667.7Egypt75.5128.1Indonesia225.6432.8Iran71.0270.9Mexico105.3893.4Nigeria148.0165.7Pakistan162.4143.6Philippines87.9144.1SouthKorea48.5969.8Turkey73.9657.1Vietnam85.171.2Source:WorldBankKeyDevelopmentDataandStatistics(AccessedOctober13,2008)CountryEmergingEnginesofGrowthGDP%ChangeUS2.82.01.60.1EuroArea2.82.61