农业保险补贴政策及其对农户购买保险影响的实证分析

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:;;;Logit,,,,,,,WTO,,2007106;20086015,(,2008),:(,2004),(,2005)(,2006;,2007),(2005)(ProbitModel);(2007)(2007),;(2008),(),,,Logit91:3::(:200803028)©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:50%,30%,20%,12/,80%,20%,12/,2007815,2459119,20065116%,14182,248131,5,416108376114236130165114153136;80%10,,,40%,30%300080006%,200810%,3,20085,50%,,:10%;20%;30%2008,1304,408,31%,2200816,136,6630,31378,1004087,50%,502043,10%,100409,,,,,:11,:,,(,2002),,3302()20104333,,,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(%)(%)242/225/88200/215400/23000/4500/7400/8500/71000/72000/4000/92000/3000/92000/3000/92000/3000/81000/2000/7700/7112200/10267/8167/813313/713313/7()(),5,,,,3525515505035252020:(1),80%,20%(2):30,50%,30%;30,70%,10%;,60%,20%21,,31,,,41,,,;,,,12:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,Logit,,:Pi=F(Zi)=F(+Xi)=11+e-Zi=11+e-(+Xi),(),,,;;,,,;,22,;,();,22()20104©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(Pi1-Pi)=Zi=0+1ln(FIi)+2ln(CFIi)+3ln(AREAi)+4ln(QLi)+5ln(WRKi)+6ln(EDUi)+7ln(YRi)+8ln(RSKi)+9ln(LSTi)+10ln(REGi)+11ln(SDPi)+12ln(SUBi)+DISXi+ei33YN,=1,=0FI()?PCFI(%)+AREA()-QL(=1,=2,=3)-WRK()?EDU()+YR()?RSK+REG+SDP(/),-SUB(%)-DISX(=0,=1)+()2009107,:,;,,,;,107,10659(55166%),47(44134%)()LogitEviews5114R2=013095,(Goodness2of2FitTests),:H-L=106118(Prob=01422),Andrew=106(Prob=01482),,Prob015,Expectation2PredictionTable570%,32:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(FI)01351014290181901423LN(PCFI)01567014241133901181LN(AREA)0156901587-1127201203LN(QL)-0188201693-1127201203LN(EDU)01271011172131501002333LN(YR)11152112250194001347LN(SDP)-2112611753-1121301225LN(RSK)016450135811801010723LN(REG)01118012620144901654LN(SUB)-0134001119-2186901004333DISX31506018264124501000333:33333310%5%1%5Expectation2PredictionTableDep=0Dep=1TotalDep=0Dep=1TotalP(Dep=1)C301040E(JHJofDep=0)301451615547100P(Dep=1)C174966E(JHJofDep=1)161554214559100Total4759106Total4710059100106100Correct304979Correct301454214572189%Correct631838310574153%Correct641787119468177%Incorrect361171619525147%Incorrect351222810631123()4,:(1),,(2),;,(3);,(4),,,,:(1),,,(2),,,,;,42()20104©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),X,Logit,X,:5E[YX]5Xj=[dF(Z)d(Z)]j=f(Z)jf(Z)X:5E[YX]5Xj=[dF(Z)d(Z)]j=f(Z)j=eZ(ez+1)2j=eX(eX+1)2j=-0.081,1%,811%;,1%,,811%,,Logit,:(1),,(2),;,,(3)X,,1%,811%(4),;,(5)(6),11,11,2007(2)2111,2004(4)31,,11,2005(6)4111,2008(4)5111,2008(12)61,11,1994(8)71,11,20028111,2005(12)91,11,2006(1)101,11,2007(3)111,,11,2005(4)121,,11,2007(4)(:,,100193):52:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(Monthly)No14/2010MAINCONTENTSProfoundUnderstandingoftheActivenessandSteadinessofDengXiaopingpsTwoLeapsThinkingPromotingtheTransferofOperatingRightsofRuralLand2probeontheModeandMechanismoftheTransferofOperatingRightsofRuralLandQUDongyu(4)CultivationofMarketMechanismforRuralFinance:ModelChoiceandCountermeasureZHOUMengliangandWENGChunhui(8)AInnovativeResearchonLoanModeofRuralFinancialInstitution:BasedontheViewAngleofRuralLandPropertyRightXiaoShishunandGaoFeng(14)EmpiricalAnalysisontheFarmersWillingofBuyingInsuranceEffectsandSubsidiesPolicyofAgriculturalInsuranceHOULingling,MUYueyingandZENGYuzhen(19)AnalysisontheLandTransferIssueintheNewCountrysideBuildingandCountermeasuresLIYue(26)AnalysisontheMutualAidFundSystemBasedonFarmersCooperativesXIAYing,SONGYanfengandPUMengqi(29)Astheproductofinducedinstitutionalchangeintherestraintofruralfinance,theexistenceofChinapsruralprivatefinancehascertainrationalityandnecessity,anditisalsotheendogenousproductwiththedevelopmentofruraleconomy1Carryingoutmutualfundaidwithincooperativesthroughpri2vatefinancingisausefulexplorationasaformofdevelopingcooperationandsolvingthefinancialprob2lemsofruralfinance1Inthegrass2rootsdevelopmentpractice,carryingoutmutualfundaidwithinthecooperativecaneffectivelysolvetheproblemofthefarmersloansdifficulty,andrealizetheorganicinte2grationandeffectiveuseofruralresources1Topromotetheirhealthydevelopment,thisstudysuggeststoregulateitsorganizationsystemthroughgovernmentsupport1ANewStudyonCooperativeBenefitsanditsBelongingnessXIADonghongandYANGJie(33)Thecooperativedoesnotaimatprofits,butprofitsmakeitpossibleforthecooperativetoliveanddevelop1Thereisalimitduringcooperativerunning1Weneedtopointoutallkindsofbenefitsofthecooperativeanditsbelongingnesssoastomeettobalanceservingcooperateandmakingmoneyandem2bodythepublicpolicy1Thiswouldhelpprotectcooperateandcooperativ