农村金融发展与农村经济增长的实证研究_以山东为例

33:,19812005:,,;,,,:;;,40Goldsmith(1969)Mckinnnon(1973),2080,LevineKingLevine(1993)Goldsmith19601989,80,,,Pagano(1993),,Ber2thelemyVaroudakis(1996),HermsLensink(1996)Demirguc2KuntLevine(2001),,(1999),(1999),(2002),(2002),,,(1996),(2000),(2002),,,(2007):,;,,,,,,74:3:(:07CJY035),,,,(Pagano,1993)AK,,,,,:,,,,,,:Yt=AK(1),A,K,:g=As-(2),g,s,,(2)(2),,A(KY),A(KY);sr,r;,FIR,FIR,,,D,1994,1994,0,1994,1199312,,1994:,,,FIR1994,;(IGDP)(KY):gt=0+1FIRt+2(IGDP)t+3rt-1+4D+t(3),,,,,1985,,,,,:(1),,GDP;(2),;(3)=-,84()20086,,;(4),,;(5),(GDPGDP),:ln(GDPt)=0+1ln(FIRt)+2ln(IGDP)t+3rt-1+4D+t(4)19812005,(2006),,,,,,,,,,()-(AugmentedDicky2Fuller,ADF):Yt=+t+(r-1)Yt-1+ni=1iYt-i+t(5),i,t,,tH0:r=1,Yt,(Mackinnon),Yt-in:,AICSC,ln(GDPt)ln(FIRt)ln(IGDP)trt-1D115%,I(1)1ADF(ctp)5%ln(GDPt)-11873818(c,1,1)-31622033ln(GDPt)-31762058(c,1,1)-31632896ln(FIRt)-01927680(c,0,2)-31004861ln(FIRt)-41109049(c,0,2)-31004861ln(IGDP)t-21165170(c,1,1)-31622033ln(IGDP)t-71180299(c,0,0)-31622033rt-1-31412283(c,1,1)-31622033rt-1-41025831(0,0,3)-11959071D-21038914(c,1,0)-31612199D-41690416(c,0,0)-11608495:(ctp),c,t,p;94:()ln(GDPt)ln(FIRt)ln(IGDP)trt-1D,(4),,,Eviews510,(4)2,F-statistic=1811960,R2=01968,,,,,FIRD1%T,,,,,,D,-010125,10%T(Mckinnon,1973),,,,GDP10%T,,,2ln(GDPt)T6110914319802010000ln(FIRt)1111761112525010000ln(IGDP)t-010571-017758014469rt-1-010125-119870010608D014212317967010011R2=01968F2statistic=1811960AEG1%-21961709-21664853:ADF,(EngleandGranger),AEG,,,19812005,,,,,,;,,,,,,,05()20086,:,,;,;,;,,,:11,,,,,21,,,31,,,,,41,,,,,,,,,1111,199421,11,200231,11,200641,11,2006(2)51,,11,2005(9)61,,11,2007(5)7111,1999(10)8111,1999(3)911:1,2001(3)101,11,2002(4)11111,1996(1)1211:1,2000(8)131,1:197820001,2002(10)141Berthelemy,J1C1,&A1Varoudakis,EconomicGrowth,ConvergenceClubs,andtheRoleofFinancialDevelopment,OxfordEconomicPa2pers,Vol148(1996):300328151King,R1G1andLevine,R1Financeandgrowth:Schumpetermightberight1QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1996(108):717737161Herms,N1andLensink,R1FinancialDevelopmentandEconomicGrowth:TheoryandExperiencesfromDevelopingCountries1London:Routledge,19961171Pagano,M1FinancialMarketandGrowth:anOverview1EuropeanEconomicReview37(1993):6136221(::,,400044;:,,400044):15:Vol129,SerialNo1342comesfromthefastdevelopmentofeconomyandthecurrencyspillovereffect1Changesonproductioncostandcomparativereceiptsaretherootofpricerise,thequotationsininternationalmarketandspeculationac2celeratetheprocessofpricerising1Researchdeemsthat,asthereplenishingpigsputonthemarket,thepricewillreturntorationality1Atpresent,weneedtomainlyconsiderthathowtolearnalessonfromthispriceriseandhowtobuildastableandsafeproductionprotectionsystemforagriculturalproducts1AgriculturalTradePolicyOptionsshouldPayAttentiontotheSixMistakesNIHongxing(27)IntegrationofWheatPurchasingMarketandFlourRetailMarketinNorthernChinaWANGNing,SIWeiandWANGXiuqing(33)ALiteratureReviewabouttheImpactofSanitaryandPhytosanitaryMeasuresonInternationalAgriculturalTradeSONGHaiyingandCHENZhigang(38)EmpiricalStudyonRelationshipbetweenRuralFinancialDevelopmentandRuralEconomicGrowthinShandongProvinceRANGuangheandZHANGJinxin(47)BasedonthePaganomodelinthetheoryofendogenouseconomicgrowth,thispaperstudiedem2piricallytheruralfinancialdevelopmentandeconomicgrowthinShandongprovinceintheperiodfrom1981to20051TheresultshowsthattheruralfinancialdevelopmentleveltakeontheremarkabledirectcorrelationwiththeruraleconomicgrowthofShandong,insufficientruralfinancewillrestricttheruraleconomicdevelopseriously1ThepaperanalyzedtheissuesofruralfinancialdevelopmentandeconomicgrowthofShandong,andpresentssuggestionsonfinancialpolicyanditsimplementingstrategy1RuralLaborFlowandRegionalEconomicDisparitiesYANHaokunandXUZhaohui(52)TheauthorestablishedthemodeltostudytheimpactofChineserurallaborflowontheregionale2conomicgap,andanalyzedtheimpactofrurallaborforceflowonregionaleconomicdisparities1IttakesthatdespiterurallabormobilityinChinatakesthesamewayinthetransitionperiod,buttoacer2tainextent,itexpandsregionaleconomicdisparities1StudyontheSymbiosisRecyclingEconomyRuralModeCaseofQiliyinginXinxiang,HenanLIHongandWANGJingtian(58)TakingQiliyinginHenanProvinceasanexample,Firstly,thepaperanalyzedtheprocessofIndustri2alsymbiosisrecyclingeconomyruralmode,anddidabenefitanalysis1Secondly,sumedupthebasiccharacteristicsofIndustrialsymbiosisrecyclingeconomyruralmode1ThePolicyInstrumentsInnovationonthePPP(Public2PrivatePartnership)ModelofRuralInfrastructureGovernanceWANGChunfu(64)111