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摘要I次贷危机对我国经济的影响分析专业:金融学学号:11000913238学生姓名:熊祎睿指导教师:戴志敏摘要2008年美国由于其房地产行业的泡沫被戳破,由此爆发了美国次贷危机。由于美元具备庞大的消费量和世界货币地位,导致其在次贷危机冲击着美国经济造成巨大影响的同时,危机也向日本、欧洲等发达国家蔓延。危机进一步引起了全球金融市场的剧烈动荡与恐慌,导致了全球性的信贷紧缩。又有美国经济衰退所必然导致的全球需求增加步伐的大幅度放缓,必将对以美国作为第二大出口方向的我国的经济增长产生直接影响和蝴蝶效应。本文通过分析08年美国次贷危机爆发的主次原因、蔓延及其对我国金融业、房地产业、外贸企业的直接影响和间接影响,说明此次危机对我国经济的影响、能够给我国借鉴的宝贵经验、启示以及提出应对以预防类似的危机在我国重演的措施和万一重演我国能采取的应对办法。关键词:次贷危机;中国影响;经济领域;金融业;房地产;外贸企业AbstractIThesubprimecrisistoChina'seconomicimpactanalysisAbstractIn2008Americabecauseoftherealestatebubblewasburst,whichbrokeoutintheAmericansubprimemortgagecrisis.Asthedollarhasahugeamountofconsumptionandtheworldcurrency,resultinginthesubprimemortgagecrisishitAmericaneconomycausedhugeimpactatthesametime,thecrisishasalsospreadtoJapan,Europeandotherdevelopedcountries.Thecrisishascausedafurtherturmoilinglobalfinancialmarketsandpanic,leadingtoaglobalcreditcrunch.AndAmericanrecessionwillinevitablyleadtotheincreasingglobaldemandgreatlyslowedthepace,itwillhaveadirectimpactonUSAandbutterflyeffectasthesecondlargestexportorientationofChina'seconomicgrowth.Inthispaper,throughtheanalysisofprimaryandsecondarycauses,08yearsUSAsubprimemortgagecrisisspreadanditsdirectimpactonforeigntradeenterprisesofChina'sfinancialindustry,therealestateindustry,andindirecteffects,illustratetheimpactofthecrisisonChina'seconomy,cangivevaluableexperienceofourcountry,andputforwardtodealwithreferencetopreventsimilarcrisesinmytherepeatedmeasuresandincaseofarepeatofourcountrycantakethewaytodealwith.Keyword:Subprimemortgagecrisis;Effect;Economy;Financialindustry;Realestate;Foreigntradeenterprises目录I目录摘要··························································································································ⅠAbstract····················································································································Ⅱ第一章次贷危机定义及成因发展····································································11.1次贷危机的简介····························································································11.2次贷危机爆发的原因····················································································1第二章次贷危机对我国金融业的影响··························································32.1我国股市受到的影响···················································································32.2我国银行业受到的影响················································································32.3我国金融业的应对措施和启示·······························································3第三章次贷危机对我国房地产的影响和应对措施及启示·······················53.1我国房地产业的现况····················································································53.2我国房地产业的启示及应对措施································································7第四章次贷危机对我国外贸出口企业的影响和应对措施及启示·········94.1我国外贸出口的现况····················································································94.2我国出口贸易受美国次贷危机影响的途径···············································104.3我国出口贸易化解美国次贷危机影响的对策···········································11结论··························································································································12参考文献(References)························································································132第一章第一章次贷危机定义及成因发展1.1次贷危机的简介08年美国的次贷危机愈演愈烈。在这次次贷危机里,我们能够分析出下面几个特点:一是危机是因为杠杆率无限增加所致。无节制的资产证券化和新兴的金融杠杆工具和产品的创新使这场金融灾难的破坏力被成倍的放大了,甚至威胁到了整个金融体系的安全。二是危机爆发带有突然性。发生危机前没有充足的征兆,金融市场和监管当局未能及早地发出预警,金融市场的流动性和信用度突然发生倒置。三是危机的规模、深度和破坏力前所未有。危机不仅波及到了全球金融业,也直接和间接的影响到了各国的实体经济,西方主要发达国家联手干预多次未能奏效,危机由开始的债券危机急速演变为货币危机、信用危机、银行危机,并形成了从资产价格下跌到信贷萎缩再到金融机构亏损或银行倒闭不断往复的恶性循环,导致西方主要经济体经济迅速下滑,甚至陷入衰退。四是政府在危机中扮演最后救市者。由于美国次贷危机从一开始就是金融市场的系统性风险,在救助方式上,西方国家普遍放弃了其一贯主张的市场自由论,而主张依靠政府干预和资金救助来挽救金融体制,甚至不惜以引动巨大的道德风险为代价。亡羊补牢为时不晚,现在我们要做的正是剖析这次危机的成因,客观分析对我国造成的影响,以及提出中肯解决办法。1.2次贷危机爆发的原因次贷拥有优秀的市场前景,它给那些不符合规范的抵押贷款市场标准或者受到歧视的借款者提供按揭性的服务,在少数民族集中以及经济不发达的地区十分受欢迎。同时,次贷对放贷机构来说是一项回报很高的业务。从九十年代末期开始,次贷利率连续走低推动了次级抵押贷款的发展。2001至2005年的房市景气带来了次级抵押贷款市场的迅猛发展,在利益的驱动下,次优住房贷款和次级成为房贷金融机构新的利润增长点。金融机构还由于不断上涨的房价误认为,如果出现违约的现象,他们可以采取没收抵押品,并通过拍卖而收回贷款本息。资产证券化是近30年来国际金融市场最重要的金融创新之一,已经成为全球主要金融市场和金融机构的重要业务构成和收入来源,也是各发达国家有效管理经济和金融风险、发挥金融市场投融资功能并促进社会和经济稳定发展的重要工具。因此,资产证券化产品在近年来发展迅速,新的产品不断衍生。[1]另一方面,评级机构同时提供的咨询、风险管理等服务,使评级可能会受到相关利益的影响。投资银行在证券化产品的过程中会购买评级机构公司的咨询服务,并且寻求获得较高评级的方法。评级机构一方面收取咨询手续费,另一方面又对这些产品进行评级,存在利益冲突,丧失了独立性。而在统计中,评级机构九成的收入来源于发行方所支付的评级费用。这让评级机构很愿意为大型的证券发行机构提供3第一章给予更高的评级,进行评级咨询。评级制度存在缺陷,其迟缓反映加重了次贷危机,因为制度不够严密,评级机构对潜在危机预警严重滞后。使风险不断累积,影响面持续扩大但是其跟踪评级制度并没有发挥应有的作用,导致投资者相信高评级产品的投资价值反而遭受了巨大的损失。市场自我调节监管者的疏忽,使得在投资者与金融机构之间泛滥着高风险资产,危机不可避免。证券化产品的评级方法和公众、使用者和数据对监管部门都极不透明,造成市场和监管的部分失灵。其次,数据对评级公司和评级方法自身也存在透明度问题。此外,评级机构所使用的抵押支持债券评级模型过度依赖基础经济数据和假定,这些模型假定,参数设定并没有经过完整周期的检验。4第二章第二章次贷危机对我国金融业的影响2.1我国股市受到的影响次贷危机能够通过3个途径影响到我国的股市。首先,市场传导渠道。由于美国次贷危机的影响,美国股市大跌,进而使得港股大跌,A股受心理因素影响到我国的股市。其次,因为美国次贷危机,投资美国次级债的中资银行受到损失,银行股业绩和股价受到影响,进而使我国股市受到影响。最后,次贷危机使得消费需求下降,影响到中国企业出口,中国经济发展受到限制,股市基本面受到影响。虽然美国次贷危机对中国的股市没有直接影响,但产生了很大的间接影响。例如,上市公司的出口业务遭到打击,股民的信心受挫等。我国经济己经融入到国际经济体中,我国股市与全球股市的关联程度也越来越高。因此,中国股市巨幅震荡也理所当然。2.2我国银行业受到的影响目前,从一些披露的数据看,中资银行这次的损失并不是很大。美国次贷危机只我国中资银行造成了有限的直接影响,损失主要在我国银行购买了一定分量的美国抵押
本文标题:次贷危机对我国经济的影响分析
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