房地产财务风险

本科生毕业论文房地产业债务融资率与财务风险——基于我国房地产业上市公司的研究姓名学号专业指导教师2012年5月30I摘要我国房地产业与发达资本市场成熟的房地产业相比，一个显著的区别就是债务融资方式的不同。我国房地产业的主要融资方式为银行贷款，而成熟房地产业主要通过发行债券、房地产证券化、房地产信托等形式自行筹资。这就在很大程度上表明，成熟房地产业由债务融资方式带来的财务风险是较小的；但是，我国房地产业的债务融资方式与其财务风险有着显著的相关性，同时表明债务融资率和财务风险存在显著相关性。关于债务融资率和财务风险之间的关系，在学者已有的研究成果中，仅片面提及到。从2006年开始，我国开始大量制定一系列房地产业债务融资的相关政策，比如提高银行贷款利率，鼓励发行债券，并在2007年得到落实，其效果在2008年的次贷危机得到验证。所以，研究我国房地产业的债务融资率和财务风险的相关性，具有很大的意义。本文回顾了房地产业的融资情况和风险状况，具体分析了影响财务风险的主要因素，并以此选择了三个控制变量。建立以财务风险概率为因变量，债务融资率为自变量的多元线性回归模型，选取较有代表性的2007年国内房地产业上市公司数据为研究样本。实证过程中，先运用逻辑回归模型预测样本的财务风险概率，再将总样本进行资产负债率高低程度的划分，通过多元线性回归分析发现，高资产负债率公司，其财务风险显著大于低资产负债率公司；对于高资产负债率公司，债务融资率越大，其发生财务风险的概率就越大；对于低资产负债率的公司，债务融资程度与其财务风险无显著相关性。最后针对分析结果，为企业融资提供了一些建议。关键词：房地产业；债务融资率；财务风险IIAbstractAnotabledifferencebetweenChineserealestateindustryandthematureindevelopedcapitalmarketisthewayoffinancingofourrealestateindustryisbankloans.Butthemainmodeofthedevelopedoneistheissuanceofbonds,realestatesecuritization,realestatetrustsandotherformsofself-financing.Toahighdegree,thefinancialriskcausedbythedebtfinancingmethodsissmallerthanourcountry’s.ItalsoshowthattheDFAhasaremarkablecorrelationbetweenthefinancialrisk.Amongtheexistingresearch,fewhasmentionedtherelationshipbetweenthedebtfinancingandfinancialrisk.Since2006,Chinabegantoformulateaseriespolicywhichisrelevantwiththerealestateindustry,suchasincreasingthebankloans,bondsandencouragingtheissue.In2007,itseffectshadbeenimplemented;soitdidin2008subprimecrisis.Soit’sofgreatsignificancetoanalysetherelationshipbetweenthedebtfinancingandfinancialrisk.Inthispaper,wereviewedtherealestateindustry'sconditionoffinancingandfinancialrisk,analyzedthemainimpactoffinancialriskfactors,and,basedonthis,cheesedfourcontrolvariables.Inthispaper,weselectedtherealrepresentativeindustryin2007asasample,builtaregressionanalysismodelwhichtakestheProbabilityofFinancialRiskasdependentvariableandtherateofDebtFinancingasvariable.DuringEmpiricalprocess,first,weforecastedthesample’sRateofFinancialRiskbyregressionanalysis,andthen,dividedthetotalsamplerateofassetsandliabilitiesextent.Byregressionanalysis,wefoundthatthecompany'sfinancialriskwhichhashighratesofassetsandliabilitieswassignificantlygreaterthantheothers;forthecompanywhichhasthehighrateofassetsandliabilities,thegreatertherateofdebtfinancingis,thegreaterthefinancialriskis.Forthecompanyofthelow-rateassetsandliabilities,theextentofdebtfinancinganditsfinancialriskhasnosignificantcorrelation.Keywords:RealEstateIndustry;TheRateofDebtFinancing;FinancialRiskIII目录引言........................................................................................................................................1一、文献回顾............................................................................................................................1（一）融资结构的研究.......................................................................................................1（二）财务危机的界定.......................................................................................................2（三）财务风险的研究.......................................................................................................31.财务风险的内涵..........................................................................................................32.财务风险的模型研究.................................................................................................3（四）文献评述及本文创新................................................................................................4二、研究设计............................................................................................................................5（一）数据来源...................................................................................................................5（二）实证模型简介...........................................................................................................51.模型选择...................................................................................................................52.多元线性回归模型...................................................................................................53.逻辑回归模型...........................................................................................................5三、实证分析............................................................................................................................6（一）财务风险概率的预测...............................................................................................61.财务指标选取...........................................................................................................62.共线性检验...............................................................................................................73.财务风险概率预测...................................................................................................84.预测有效性检验.......................................................................................................8（二）控制变量选择...........................................................................................................9（三）样本分组...................................