我国房地产调控政策对房地产信贷风险的影响分析_金融学

湖南涉外经济学院本科毕业论文（设计）题目我国房地产调控政策对房地产信贷风险的影响分析作者伍斯耀学院商学院专业金融学学号11430727114155指导教师罗向红王小艳副教授二〇一五年五月二十一日湖南涉外经济学院本科毕业论文（设计）诚信声明本人声明：所呈交的本科毕业论文（设计），是本人在指导老师的指导下，独立开展工作所取得的成果，成果不存在知识产权争议，除文中已经注明引用的内容外，本论文不含任何其他个人或集体已经发表或创作过的作品成果。对本文工作做出重要贡献的个人和集体均已在文中以明确方式标明。本人完全意识到本声明的法律结果由本人承担。本科毕业论文（设计）作者签名：二〇一五年五月二十一日I摘要近年来，房地产业已然成为我国经济发展中的支柱产业。房地产业的迅速发展不仅推动了房地产相关产业的发展，也推动了我国国民经济的快速发展。但是，房地产业的迅速发展也给我国的经济和市场带来了许多问题，甚至已经到了影响我国经济健康发展和社会和谐稳定的地步。为了调整房地产业，引导其健康发展，国家每年都会出台一系列针对房地产业的调控政策与措施。本文旨在研究我国房地产调控政策对房地产信贷风险的影响。本文第一部分对我国房地产业发展情况进行了分析，并研读了国内外房地产信贷风险领域的研究现状与不足。接着，第二部分分析了房地产信贷风险的种类，进而探究如何识别房地产信贷风险，以及研究房地产信贷风险的成因。第三部分，重点从理论层面探讨房地产调控政策对房地产信贷风险的影响，认为房地产调控从直接和间接两种途径对房地产信贷风险造成影响，直接的途径有房地产开发企业信贷途径、贷款抵押物贬值途径、个人住房按揭贷款违约途径等；间接的途径有房地产关联行业途径、流入房地产业隐性途径等。本文第四部分，借助VAR模型，就房地产调控对房地产信贷风险的影响进一步作实证研究，得出了房地产调控对房地产信贷风险影响研究有实际意义的结论。最后，论文针对房地产调控以及房地产信贷风险控制等问题提出了实用的政策性建议。关键词：房地产；房地产调控；房地产信贷风险IIABSTRACTInrecentyears,realestatehasbecomeapillarindustryofChina'seconomicdevelopment.Therapiddevelopmentofrealestatenotonlypromotethedevelopmentofrelatedindustries,butalsopromotethedevelopmentofthenationaleconomy.Atthesametime,therapiddevelopmentoftherealestateindustryhasalsobroughtmanyproblemsandshortcomings,andevenaffectedthehealthydevelopmentoftheeconomyandsocialharmonyandstability.Inordertoadjusttherealestateindustry,andguideitshealthydevelopment,thestateissuedaseriesofregulatorypoliciesandmeasures.Thispaperaimstostudytheimpactthenationalrealestatecontrolpoliciesontherealestatecreditrisk.Firstly,therealestatesituationandthestatusquoofChina'srealestatedevelopmentbusinessfinancingarediscussed.Then,thepaperanalyzesthetypesofrealestatecreditrisk,andthenexplorehowtoidentifyrealestatecreditrisk,aswellasthepaperstudiesthecausesoftherealestatecreditrisk.Andthethirdpartofthepaperfocusesontheimpactofrealestatecontrolpoliciesontherealestatecreditriskfromatheoreticallevel,thinkofrealestateregulationfromthedirectandindirectpathwaysimpactontherealestatecreditrisk,thereisadirectwaytotherealestatedevelopmentbusinesstocredit,loancollateraldevaluationway,individualhousingmortgageloandefaultsandotherways;indirectwayrealestaterelatedindustrieshavehadwayintorealestateindustryandotherhiddenways.Thefourthpart,theimpactofrealestateregulationofrealestatecreditriskforfurtherempiricalresearch,thispaperbymeansofVARmodel,obtainedfortherealestatecreditriskresearchhasdrawmeaningfulconclusions.Finally,thepaperfortheregulationofrealestateandrealestatecreditriskcontrolandotherissuesputforwardpolicyrecommendations.Keywords:RealEstate;RealEstateRegulation;RealEstateCreditRiskIII目录诚信声明..................................................................................................................................I摘要.....................................................................................................................................IIABSTRACT........................................................................................................................III第一章绪论........................................................................................................................11.1选题背景与研究意义................................................................................................11.1.1选题背景..........................................................................................................11.1.2研究意义..........................................................................................................11.2国内外研究动态........................................................................................................21.2.1国外研究动态..................................................................................................21.2.2国内研究动态..................................................................................................21.2.3文献评述..........................................................................................................41.3研究方法及本文的创新点........................................................................................41.3.1研究方法..........................................................................................................41.3.2本文的创新点..................................................................................................5第二章我国房地产信贷风险一般分析....................................................................62.1我国房地产信贷风险的种类....................................................................................62.1.1信用风险..........................................................................................................62.1.2市场风险..........................................................................................................72.1.3政策风险..........................................................................................................72.1.4操作风险..........................................................................................................72.2我国房地产信贷风险的识别....................................................................................82.2.1贷款利率对房地产信贷风险的影响................................................