金融危机的国际经验及现实思考

WorldwideLessonsfromFinancialCrises金融危机的国际经验及现实思考VinodThomas,Director-General&SeniorVicePresidentIndependentEvaluationGroup,WorldBankChinaCenterforEconomicResearchPekingUniversityFebruary19,20092TableofContentsI.TheCrisisII.PolicyResponsesIII.Outlook3I.TheCrisis►Thesub-primemortgagebubbleintheUSwasthedetonatorofthecurrentcrisis►Theextensiveuseofderivativesmadetheexposuretothemortgagecrisisexplosive►Thechainreactionwasglobalizedbecauseof:•ThelinksamongthefinancialsectorsinOECDandemergingcountries•ThehighdependenceofinternationaltradeonUSdemand4Theextentofdamagesofar►Deepeningrecessionsincemid-2008withmultipledownwardsrevisionsofgrowth►Contagionfromthedevelopedtoemergingandlessdevelopedeconomies►Downwardcyclethrough•Tradeandweakeningdemand•Capitalflow•Remittance•Commodityprice►Reinforcingexpectationforglobaldepressionanddeflation5Thesharpestglobaldeclinesince1970GDPGrowth-4-2024681019701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009PercentchangeAdvancedeconomiesEmerginganddevelopingeconomiesWorld6BothOECDandemergingmarketsfall–nodecoupling-6-4-2024681012024681012AverageannualgrowthGDP,2006-2007(%)AnnualgrowthGDP,2009(%)IndiaChinaIndonesiaSouthAfricaBrazilSaudiArabiaArgentinaRussiaTurkeyKoreaJapanUSAUKGermanyMexicoSpainItalyFranceCanadaAustraliaSource:WorldDevelopmentIndicators2008andIMFWorldEconomicOutlookUpdate,January28,20097DramaticfallinAsia’srapidgrowth►China:•Growthpracticallygroundtoahaltin2008Q4--Annualgrowthratein2009expectedtofallto6.7%from9.0%in2008•Exportsplunged17.5%year-on-yearinJanuary2009—thelargestdropinalmost13years•Importsdown43%year-on-year,partlyexplainedbyadjustmentininventory.►Singapore’sGDPfellatanannualizedrateof17%andSouthKorea’sat21%inQ42008►Industrialproductioninthe12monthstoDecember,2008isdown21%inJapan,14%inSingapore,19%inSouthKoreaSource:IMFWorldEconomicOutlookUpdate,January28,20098ExportsandcapitalflowscrumblePrivatecapitalflowstoemergingeconomies-200020040060080010002006200720082009(US$,billions,net)EquityinvestmentPrivateCreditors-15-55152535Jan-07Apr-07Jul-07Oct-07Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08ChinaJordanMexicoIndiaSource:NationalAgenciesthroughThomson/Datastream.Source:InstituteforInternationalFinance:“CapitalFlowsToEmergingMarketEconomies.”01/27/09.Exports(Volumes,Change%3mmay/y)PrivateNetCapitalFlowstoEmergingEconomies-200020040060080010002006200720082009(US$,billions,net)EquityinvestmentPrivateCreditors9HightradeshareswithsharpdeclinesinGDPgrowth…(currentepisode)0102030405060708090100-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10ChangeinGDPGrowthRate[2009projected-Avg.2006-07](%)Averagetrade,%GDP2006-2007KoreaRussiaTurkeyArgentinaGermanySpainUSAJapanBrazilIndiaAustraliaIndonesiaFranceItalyChinaUKMexicoSouthAfricaCanadaSource:WorldDevelopmentIndicators2008andIMFWorldEconomicOutlookUpdate,January28,200910…AlsohightradeshareswithstrongrecoveryofGDPgrowth(pastepisodes)Source:WorldDevelopmentIndicators20080204060801001200246810Post-crisisGDPgrowth(%)Avergetradepre-andpost-crisis(%GDP)BrazilKoreaMexicoRussiaTurkeyThailandIndonesiaArgentina020406080100120-202468Averagepre-crisisGDPgrowth(%)Avergetrade,pre-andpost-crisis(%GDP)MexicoKoreaArgentinaBrazilTurkeyRussiaThailandIndonesiaNote:CrisiseventsareArgentina(1999-2002);Indonesia,Korea,Russia,Thailand,andBrazil(1997-1998);Mexico(1994)andTurkey(2000-2001)11II.PolicyResponsesPolicyresponseShort-termLong-termCountrylevel►Similarresponsesacrosscountries—Fiscalandmonetarypoliciestostimulateaggregatedemand►Diverseresponsesdependingontheinitialconditions—savingrates,currentaccountbalance►Sustainablegrowth—poverty,environment,educationGlobalresponse►Coordinatedresponses—bankingsector,financialsystem,liquidity,interestrates,opentraderegime►Internationalpolicycoordinationmechanisms—surveillance,environment,climatechangeAframeworkforassessment12FiveAreasforActionFiscalTradePovertyEnvironmentConsumptionInvestmentsLiquidityFinancialsystemMarketconfidenceSustainablegrowthSocialstabilityharmonyTermsoftradeValuechainCRISISFinancial13FinancialsectorFire-fightingandbeyond►Oftenreceiveearlyattention•U.S.Housingmarket:3millionforeclosures(2008)•U.S.Bankingsector:$1-$2trillionnetcostofbailout•Worldstockmarkets:Almost50%lossinthetotalcapitalizationin2008--$30trillionofwealthdisappeared►Neededmeasures:•Adequateprudentialregulationswiththeincreasingsophisticationanddynamismofglobalmarkets–Capturethefullriskimplicationsofsecuritizedmortgageloansandderivatives•Sounddevelopmentofthefinancialsectorindevelopingcountries14FiscalpolicyEffectiveeconomicstimulus►Stimuluspackages–astarkdifferencefromthe1990s•US:Taxcutsandpriorityinvestments–around$800bn•Japan:Threepackages--$112bn•Germany:Twopackagesforinfrastructure,taxcuts,cleanenergy--$106bn•UnitedKingdom:VATreduction,capitalspending-$27.8bn•China:Infrastructure,housing--$586bn•India:Exportincentives,guarantees,refinancefacility--$4.1bn►Short-termvs.long-termchoices:•Countrieswithlowornegativesavingsneedmorethansustainedfiscalstimulustoemergefromthecrisis•Countrieswithhighsavingsratescancombinetheshort-termfiscalstimuluswithalonger-t