金融发展对安徽省城乡经济一体化的影响研究

I摘要城乡协调发展是“十二五”规划中主要内容之一，而十八届五中全会提出的重点促进城乡区域协调发展，促进经济社会协调发展的战略部署，进一步凸显了城乡协调发展将成为十三五时期发展的核心之一。而城乡经济一体化是城乡协调发展的重要体现，也是城乡均衡发展的重要过程，从20世纪90年代以来安徽经济在快速增长的同时，城乡经济发展不协调却日益凸现。金融发展的早期理论主要分析了经济发展与金融兴盛之间的关系，可这无法代表城乡经济一体化水平。虽然中国经济高速增长，但城乡经济一体化水平没有得到改善。本文通过对相关学者观点研究，强调城乡经济一体化的重要性。梳理了安徽省金融兴盛的机制，然后研究了边际资本产出、金融发展效率、金融发展规模与城乡经济一体化水平的作用。通过对当前的形势总结和实证研究，对相关部门研究安徽省城乡经济一体化的思路提供参考。利用实证分析方法分析安徽省的城乡经济一体化水平，可得结论：金融的不协调发展会反作用于安徽省的城乡经济一体化水平，健全农村金融服务结构可以很好的改善城乡经济二元结构。分析发现，安徽城乡经济一体化水平和金融发展有协整关系。不均衡的金融发展，即农村金融发展水平低下，城市金融业发展更为发达，不利于城乡经济一体化的发展。也就是，城乡金融体系不均衡，将导致二元的经济结构更加严重，降低安徽省城乡经济一体化水平及制约城乡经济一体化发展进程。安徽这种以城市的金融兴盛、金融结构持续扩张，而农村金融发展的速度和结构相对下降金融体系。金融发展的扩散结果小于核心城市群结果，金融不均衡发展反作用于城乡经济一体化发展。如果这种趋势持续下去，将进一步扩大城乡差距，降低经济发展的总体实力，阻碍安徽经济一体化进程。关键词：金融发展，二元经济结构，城乡经济一体化，安徽省IIAbstractCoordinateddevelopmentofurbanandruralareasisanimportantpartofthe12thFiveYearPlan,thekeyandtheeighteensessionofthefifthplenarysessiontopromotethecoordinateddevelopmentofurbanandruralareas,promotethestrategicdeploymentofcoordinatedeconomicandsocialdevelopment,andfurtherhighlightsthecoordinateddevelopmentofurbanandruralareaswillbecomethecoreofthethirteenfiveperiodofdevelopment.Theurban-ruraleconomicintegrationisanimportantembodimentofthecoordinateddevelopmentofurbanandruralareas,butalsoanimportantprocessofbalanceddevelopmentofurbanandruralareas,since1990s,therapidgrowthofAnhui'seconomy,urbanandruraleconomicdevelopmentisincreasinglyprominent.Theearlytheoryoffinancialdevelopmentmainlyanalyzestherelationshipbetweeneconomicdevelopmentandfinancialprosperity,butitcannotrepresentthelevelofurbanandruraleconomicintegration.AlthoughChina'srapideconomicgrowth,butthelevelofurbanandruraleconomicintegrationhasnotbeenimproved.Inthispaper,theimportanceoftheintegrationofurbanandruraleconomyisemphasizedbytherelevantscholars'views.ThemechanismoffinancialprosperityinAnhuiprovinceisstudied,andtheeffectsofmarginalcapitaloutput,theefficiencyoffinancialdevelopment,thescaleoffinancialdevelopmentandthelevelofeconomicintegrationofurbanandruralareasarestudied.Throughthecurrentsituationsummaryandempiricalresearch,therelevantdepartmentstostudytheintegrationofurbanandruraleconomyinAnhuiprovince.UsingempiricalanalysismethodtoanalyzethelevelofurbanandruraleconomicintegrationinAnhuiProvince,itcanbeconcludedthat:thedevelopmentoffinancialcoordinationinAnhuiprovince'surbanandruraleconomicintegrationlevel,improvetheruralfinancialservicestructurecanbeagoodimprovementofurbanandruraleconomicstructureoftwoyuan.TheanalysisshowsthatthelevelofurbanandruraleconomicintegrationandthefinancialdevelopmentofAnhuihaveacointegrationrelationship.Unbalancedfinancialdevelopment,thatis,thelowlevelofruralfinancialdevelopment,thedevelopmentofthecity'sfinancialindustryismoredeveloped,isnotconducivetothedevelopmentofurbanandruraleconomicintegration.Thatis,theurbanandruralfinancialsystemisnotbalanced,willleadtomoreseriouseconomicstructureoftwoyuan,reducingthelevelofurbanandruraleconomicintegrationinAnhuiprovince.ThisshowsthatthefinancialsystemofAnhuiisthemostimportantinthecity.Financialstructurecontinuestoexpand,buttheproportionofruralfinanceinthefall.Theresultsoffinancialdevelopmentarelessthanthecorecitygroup,andthedevelopmentoffinancialimbalanceistheoppositeofthedevelopmentofurbanandruraleconomicintegration.Ifthesituationcontinues,itwillfurtherexpandthegapbetweenurbanandruralareas,andreducetheoverallstrengthofeconomicdevelopment.Keywords:financialdevelopment,twoyuaneconomicstructure,urbanandruraleconomicintegration,AnhuiProvince目录摘要....................................................................................................................................................IAbstract............................................................................................................................................II第一章导论.....................................................................................................................................11.1研究背景和意义................................................................................................................11.2城乡一体化的研究综述...................................................................................................11.2.1金融抑制与二元经济结构的研究述评.............................................................11.2.2金融发展在二元经济结构转换中的影响分析....................................................21.2.3金融发展与二元经济结构转换关系的实证分析...............................................31.2.4简要评述...............................................................................................................41.4主要内容.........................................................................................................................51.5可能的创新点.................................................................................................................5第2章金融发展与城乡经济一体化的相关理论回顾...............................................................52.1主要的金融发展理论.......................................................................................................62.1.1戈德史密斯的金融发展理论［21］...................................