长期风险与金融新秩序（04-03-05)

FundamentalLong-TermRisksAndtheNewFinancialOrderProf.RobertJ.ShillerYaleUniversityFinancialModernization•Fundamentalroleoffinancialinstitutions–Managerisks–Maintainincentives•Effectivefinancialinstitutionsarefoundinallsuccessfuleconomies•Institutionsmustcontinuallybeadaptedtotakeaccountofchangingnatureofrisks,newtechnologyChina’sSpectacularModernizationSince1990•Establishedstockmarket•Issuedsharestopublic•Establishedfuturesmarkets•CreatedInsuranceindustry•Personalcredit/MortgageSpeculation•Humanimpulsetowardsgambling,mustbedirectedtowardsconstructiveends•Capitalismisasetofrulesthatredirectsthehumangamblingurgeinconstructivedirections•Capitalismisvulnerabletomarket-generatedinstabilitiesChina’sUncertainties•Willthespectaculareconomicgrowthcontinue?•Aslowwageadvantagegraduallydisappears,willbehardertosustaingrowth•Possibledisruptionsofsmooth-functioningeconomicsystemcanslowgrowth.•Growthof3%ayearvs.9%ayear:meansChinaoverallcatchesuptoadvancedcountriesin90yearsinsteadof30yearsEconomicInequality•Economicincentivesmustallowforsomechanceofsuccess—andoffailure•Someinequalityisnecessary•WorldwidetrendtowardsgreaterinequalityisseeninChinaaswell•China’sGinicoefficienthasrisenfrom0.33in1980to0.46in2000,notjustduetofarmers’incomesImportantReasonsforGrowingChineseInequality•TransitiontomarketeconomyinChinaisnotmakingeveryonesuccessfulatonce•Newinformationtechnologyappearstotendtoconcentratewealth(inChinaandelsewhere)–Assemblylineworkers–Translators–ChessplayersWinner-Take-AllEffectofInformationTechnology•Informationtechnologyallowssearchtofindthebestproduct,andreplicationofthebestproduct–Phonographsandsingers–Televisionandactorsandathletes•RapidaccelerationofinformationtechnologymaycreatethesameeffectinmanymoreoccupationsNorbertWieneronComputers,1948•Computersreplacefundamentalhumanabilities•Computermaybe“moredangerousthantheatombomb”inthatitcandestroyjobsandlivesProminentFinancialIssuesunderDiscussioninChina•Valuationoftheyuan•Nonperformingloans•Capitalcontrols•AsecondboardmarketOtherIdeasforFinancialInnovation•ManychangesshouldbecominginworldfinancialmarketsthatChinashouldadopttoo•Chinaisaninnovatorinchoosingitsownpath,couldsetthepathforothercountries•Mybooks:MacroMarkets,OxfordUniversityPress,1993,inChinese2001,andTheNewFinancialOrder:RiskintheTwentiethCentury,PrincetonUniversityPress2003andChinesePeople’sUniversityPresswithLiangJingPublishingStudios,2004IdeasforChina•Aneffectiveprogressivetaxandwagesubsidysystemthataddressesinequality•Inequalityinsurance•Electronicmoneyreplacescash•Newunitsofmeasurement:indexedunitsofaccount•AuniversalsocialsecuritysystemthataddressesincomeandhealthproblemsIdeasforChinaContinued•Intergenerationalrisksharing•Macrosecurities:ChinasellssharesinitsGDPtoforeigners•Livelihoodinsurance:encourageentrepreneurshiponindividualbasis•Homeequityinsurance:manageriskstohomevaluesAMoreEffectivelyProgressiveIncomeTaxSystemandEarnedIncomeTaxCredit•Highertaxationofsuccessfulpeopleusedtosubsidizelesssuccessful•Subsidyoflesssuccessfulismadeintermsofawagesubsidy(EITC)tomaintainincentivesInequalityInsurance•Taxratescouldbeindexedtoameasureofinequalityinsuchawaythatinequalityispreventedfromworsening•Canlegislateataxsystemthatpreventsfurtherworsening•Implementaplanforsuchataxsystemthatwillalleviateincomeinequalityinthefutureevenifthesystemcannotbeimplementedforsometime.MovetowardsElectronicMoney•Cashtransactionsarehardtotax•ThoroughgoinguseofelectronicmoneyinChinawouldmakeaneffectiveincometaxandwagesubsidysystemfeasible•InUS,cashtransactionsareconfinedtosmallitems,newspapers,candybars•ElectronicpaymentsystemsalreadyhereinChina:needtoexpandthemIndexedMoney•Oncewehaveasystemofelectronicmoney,themoneycanbeindexed•Inflation-indexeddebtallowssaverstolockintheirfuturereturns•Inflation-indexedlifeannuitiesallowpeopletoguaranteetheirretirement•Indexationcanbehelpedbycreatingnewunitsofmeasurement:theUnidaddeFomento(UF)ofChileSocialSecuritySystem:OldAgeInsurance•SocialSecurityisinfermentaroundtheworldtodaybecauseofdecliningbirthrate•Incomingdecades,willbelargenumberofelderlyrelativetoworkingpeopleinChina,asinmanyothercountriesIntergenerationalRiskSharing•Inmanycountries,old-agedpensionbenefitsareindexedtoinflation•Butthateliminatesrisktotheelderly,concentratesriskonworkingadultsandchildren•SocialsecuritysystemmustbeestablishedonasoundtheoreticalframeworkbasedontheoryofintergenerationalrisksharingChinaShouldSellSharesinitsGDPtoForeigners•ChineseuncertaintyisbornebyChinesealonetoday•BelieversintheChineseeconomyabound,allovertheworld•Chinaneedstousethesebelieversasinvestorstomanageitsrisks•Chinaneedstodiversifyitsportfoliosomewhat,andadealcanbestrucktodothatLoanswithGDPWarrants•GDPwarrantsgrewoutofoilpricewarrantsissuedaspartofBrady-BondrefinancingforMexico,Venezuela,andNigeria•BulgariaissueswarrantsonGDPaspartofBrady-Bondrefinancing,1994.•Bulgarianwarrants,inseparablefromdiscountbonds,havenotcreatedsalientpricediscoveryforclaimsonBulgarianGDPEconomicDerivativesMarketGoldmanSachs-DeutscheBank•FirstAuction,October2002,Non