中国市场对亚太区化工业的影响（英文版）

FORREGACCERTIFICATION,SEEPAGE10.FOROTHERIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,SEEPAGE19,GOTO:AttractiveAsia-PacificChemicalsAnswerstoFrequentlyAskedQuestionsaboutChina’sImpactonChemicalsDistillingthemixedsignalsinChina’schemicalmarket.Chinahasbeentheworld’slargestchemicalimporter,andweestimateChina’schemical(ethylene-equivalent)demandgrowthaccountsfor35%-40%ofglobaldemandgrowth.WeanalyzethemixedsignalsinChina’schemicalmarketandtheirimpactonthechemicalcycle.NINGXIAHEILONGJIANGJILINLIAONINGINNERMONGOLIAXINJIANGQINGHAITIBETSICHUANSHANXIHEBEIHUBEIHUNANYUNNANGUANGXIGUANGDONGHENANANHUISHANDONGFUJIANJIANGXIJIANGSUBeijingTianjinShanghaiGANSUTAIWANHAINANWuhanGuangzhouShenyangXianChengduHarbinChangchunNanjingDalianTaiyuanZhengzhouKunmingZiboZaozhuangQingdaoJinanZHEJIANGGUIZHOUChongqingSHAANXIWhyreadthisreport?•Commonconcernsaddressed•Mixedsignalsanalyzed•[e-mail]:852-2978-1483KelvinKoh,[e-mail]:852-2978-1218PaulD.Bernard,[e-mail]:[e-mail]:852-2978-0223GoldmanSachsGlobalEquityResearchChemicalimporttrendsInventorylevelsAnti-dumpingtariffsWTOimpactCapacityadditionsEconomicgrowthChemicalconsumptionChemicalsAsiaPacificGoldmanSachsGlobalEquityResearch-November7,2003TableofcontentsDistillingthemixedsignalsinChina’schemicalmarketQ1.WhatwouldbetheimpactonthechemicalcycleifChina’sGDPgrowth1weretoslow?Q2.DoesthedeclineinChina’simportsyeartodatesuggestafallinChina’s3chemicaldemand?Q3.Whatistheinventorylevel?4Q4.WhatistheexpectedcapacityincreaseinChina?Whatwouldbe5theimpactonthesupplyanddemandbalance?Q5.WhatwouldbetheimpactofChina’sWTOentryonthechemicalsector?7Q6.WhatwouldbetheimpactofChina’santi-dumpingtariffs?7Whowouldbepotentialkeybeneficiaries?Appendix11Disclosures17ThepricesinthisreportarebasedonthemarketcloseofNovember6,2003AsiaPacificChemicalsGoldmanSachsGlobalEquityResearch-November7,20031DistillingthemixedsignalsinChina’schemicalmarketChinahasbeentheworld’slargestchemicalimporter,andweestimateChina’schemical(ethylene-equivalent)demandgrowthaccountsfor35%-40%ofglobaldemandgrowth.WeanalyzethemixedsignalsinChina’schemicalmarketandtheirimpactonthechemicalcycle.WithapositiveviewonChina’scontinuedgrowth,coupledwiththeimprovingsupply/demandbalance,wereiterateourAttractivecoverageviewonAsia-PacificChemicals.Q1:WhatwouldbetheimpactonthechemicalcycleifChina’sGDPgrowthweretoslow?China’schemical(ethylene-equivalent)consumptionaccountedforabout15%ofglobaldemandin2002,i.e.,Chinawasthethird-largestchemicalconsumergloballyaftertheUSandJapan.WeestimatethatChina’schemicaldemandgrowthwouldaccountforsome40%ofglobaldemandgrowthin2003-2006,andthatChina’schemicalconsumptioncouldreach20%ofglobaldemandin2006.Thisisnotsurprising,consideringChina’sGDPrepresented3.1%ofglobalGDPanditsgrowthaccountedforover13%ofglobalgrowthin2002.China’schemicaldemandmultiplier,meanwhile,isconsistentlyabovetheglobalaverage(1.3XGDPgrowth).Infact,China’sfive-yearaveragedemandmultiplierwas2Xover1997-2002,withaveragechemicaldemandgrowthofnearly16%.DespitethefactChina’schemicaldemandgrowthhasasignificantweightinginglobaldemandgrowth,webelievethechemicalcycleshouldcontinuetoheadtowardacyclicalpeak,evenifChina’seconomicgrowthweretoslow.WebelievethestrengthofChina’seconomicgrowthisthekeytodeterminingthestrengthoftheglobalchemicalcyclicalupturn.Nonetheless,basedonoursensitivityanalysis,wehighlightthateveninthecaseofapotentialslowdowninChina’seconomicgrowth,theglobalethyleneoperatingratewouldstilltrendhigherin2004-2005givenlimitedsupplyadditionsglobally.ShouldChina’schemicaldemandgrowthfallto7.5%in2004(assumingGDPgrowthof7.5%withamultiplierof1X),weestimatetheaverageglobalethyleneoperatingratewouldbeonepercentagepointlowerat89%(versusourbase-caseestimateof90%).Thiswouldstillbewellabovetheaverageoperatingrateof86.5%thisyeargivenlimitedethylenecapacityadditionsof1.6%globally(seeExhibit1).ChemicalsAsiaPacific2GoldmanSachsGlobalEquityResearch-November7,2003Exhibit1:China’sgrowthcouldbethekeytodeterminingthestrengthofthecycle,whileweexpectacontinuedcyclicalupturngivenlimitedsupplygloballySensitivityanalysisoftheaverageglobalethyleneoperatingrate2004EChinaGDPgrowth(%)90%7.07.58.08.49.09.510.00.688.8%88.8%88.8%88.9%88.9%89.0%89.0%0.889.0%89.0%89.1%89.1%89.2%89.2%89.3%1.089.1%89.2%89.3%89.3%89.4%89.5%89.6%1.289.3%89.4%89.5%89.6%89.7%89.8%89.8%1.489.5%89.6%89.7%89.8%89.9%90.0%90.1%1.689.7%89.8%89.9%90.0%90.2%90.3%90.4%1.889.9%90.0%90.2%90.3%90.4%90.5%90.7%2.090.1%90.3%90.4%90.5%90.7%90.8%90.9%2.290.3%90.5%90.6%90.7%90.9%91.1%91.2%Multiplier(X)Source:Industrysources,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.Exhibit2:Ethyleneoperatingratesshouldshowanotableimprovementin2004-2005Exhibit3:OlefinmarginsshouldrisewithimprovingoperatingratesEthyleneoperatingratesversusolefinmargins(ethylene,propyleneovernaphtha)(000stonnes)020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,0001990199119921993199419951