中国能源安全与政策选择

中国能源安全与政策选择张文木能源安全是一个直接与能源供求比例相联系的概念,但在全球化条件下,能源安全又应当是一个处于开放体系中并与世界相互依存的概念中国能源安全问题并不主要是供给总量与需求总量的矛盾,而是由清洁能源需求刚性上升而供给严重不足所引发的结构性矛盾,这是中国能源安全问题中的主要矛盾;石油短缺是我国国内能源安全主要矛盾中的主要方面在全球化条件下,一国的能源安全不仅是经济问题,同时它也是政治和军事问题;它不仅与国内供求矛盾及其对外依存度相联系,同时它还与该国对世界资源丰富地区的外交军事影响和控制力相联系目前世界石油需求不平衡加剧,中国加入WTO后,中国能源产业面临巨大压力为此,中国要制定适合中国国情的能源安全政策能源安全;政策选择;结构性矛盾;对外依存度张文木,1957年生,法学博士,中国现代国际关系研究所(北京邮编:100081)D815.4A1006-9550(2003)05-0011-06中国能源安全基本形势,,21:,:(),,,1980~1990,:,1987~19881989~1990,,,,1990,7%,,1992,2000,191419000;19901310200014331,58759026,992.4%53.6%,1990-25652000-15147!,,()∀(),,,,1981~2000,,19802000,,:0.4%,4.2%2.9%,:19802000,23.8%21.4%,20.7%23.6%,2.3%,#11#国际政治与国际关系20035!∀:∃%,∃%,20011119:∃(2002)%,:,20022.9%,20,198010594.6200016300,1994,19932090,9.7%,5.77%,1.67%1993!,&∋,19961348.519992858,2000600015,7%,4%;2%,,20052.45∀,,,&∋,&∋,,,,,(23.8,)14.8,10.9,,,,,,,,2003,,20,2~5,,,2020,51000,70%50%∗,,,:(1),,(2),,(3),,世界石油需求不平衡加剧中国石油安全外部形势恶化(),,,20,,,1999,50%,,19891999,,,0.2%,2.9%,0.5%,19.9%26.9%,7,,0.4%1.3%,3.3%1.2%,,1993,(),,,2062%+(),1/4,50%,#12#!∀()∗+:∃:%,∃%,200221,34∃%,2003113:,,:,&∋,,1996:∃%,:,1998,107,:1989~19994.293.54,17.4%,7.958.83,11%,199925.9%;336286!,,,,,,,经济全球化挑战中国能源安全()WTO,WTO,,,10%,;;,30%40%,10%,,35%,50%,21,45,∀,20%,52%,53%,44%,WTO,,,,,,,,,(,&,,∋)()WTO,1980~1999,GDP9.6%,2.8%3.8%2000109126128000,199010392298703,5%29.7%2000,67.2%67%,199074.2%76.2%,7%9.2%200021.4%23.6%,199019%16.6%,2.4%7%20003.4%2.5%,19902%2.1%,1.4%0.4%20008%6.9%,19904.8%5.1%,3.21.8∗,,,,,9%,7%,,(2000):897.6582.4565.3179.662.42287.494.935.713.894.016.4254.8129.871.584.938.45.9330.577.986.436.919.31.8222.2230.122.1493.73.855.0804.7::∃2002~2003%,:,2002,641,,,,,,1997,,,#13#20035!∀()∗:∃(2001)%,:,2001:∃%,∃%,2001715:∃WTO%,∃%,200157:∃WTO%,∃%,200157:∃2001%,:,2001,234,,,67%,24.37%!19491998,8%,19691997,13.73,,,40%280,180,,,,,,24%8.8%2000272,2005600~700,5%7~10,95,,,,,,87%,,11%,,∀&∋6.3%,&∋,7%,,5%,199982.3%(51163.5,1228.6),16.4%,1.2%(,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,WTO,,,:2001:56.2%,22.5%,14.4%,6.9%),,,1,GDP2.5%;10,500,0.5%∗&∋+,&,,,∋,制定符合中国国情的能源安全政策2090,80,,,#14#!∀()∗+,:∃%,∃%,200212,27:∃21%,20014&∋,∃%,20032,54∃21%,20021014,3∃(2001)%:&∋:∃2002~2003%,2002,400,,!&∋,∀,,,:&∋(,,,,,,),7%,4%,2%,20052.45,,,2020,50%:&,202028,440,15,,,,10,∋∗,,,,200010.912.8,67.2%67%200075%,,16153200,7072292,43.8%+2000,30%,1/3,70%,,,,(OPEC),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,19626.6%197623%;196289.#15#20035!∀()∗+,:∃&∋%(200111):∃(2001)%,:,2001:∃%,2001712&,1/3,∋:∃###%,:,1998,166[],:∃%,:,1991,259∃%:&,,;,∋:&,,∋&−,.∋(2001109,∃%,2001108)2%197870%2070,,,,;19771978198822.717%,70%76.2%;1989,199016.6%,,,2000197623%,199076.2%67%,1993,,,,,,,,,,,2010,!,,,2090,&∋,(IGCC),,,,&,,200,60∋∀,,,,,199817.1%,77%,32%,28%,19%1%(,30;48,660,&∋,,2%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,80%,,,,,2004,,,,,,)&∋,∗,[收稿日期:2002-12-30][修回日期:2003-03-14][责任编辑:谭秀英]#16#!∀()∗:∃%,[]∃%,20021210:∃%,∃%,19982,103~104:∃:%,∃%,2000618:∃%,[]∃%,20021210:∃&∋()%,:,2000,531AbstractsAsianRegionalization:FromRationalismtoSocialConstructivism?WangZhengyi(4)Sincethe1980s,withthedeepeningofregionalcooperation,therehavebeenfourcompetingconceptionsofregionalcompetitioninAsia:theflyinggeeseparadigm;GreaterChinaandtheChinathreattheory;balanceofpowerorharmonyofpowers;andthe&ASEANway.∋ThesefourtheorieshavegenerallydominatedthefieldofregionalcooperationinEastAsiaforthelasttwentyyears.ThequestionofhowtoanalyzeAsianregionalizationhasbecomeanimportantissueinglobalacademia.Thisessayattemptstoanalyzethethreefollowingissues:recentadvancesinregionalstudiesintheIPEliterature;newquestionsinIPEraisedbyAsianregionalcooperation,andwhetherthereisan&Asianway∋toregionalism.China.sEnergySecurityandPolicyChoicesZhangWenmu(11)Theconceptofenergysecurityisdirectlylinkednotonlytotherelationsbetweenenergydemandandsupply,butalso,undertheconditionsofglobalization,itislinkedtoanopenglobalsystem.TheproblemofenergysecurityforChinaisnotmainlyderivedfromtheimbalanceinthetotalsupplyanddemand,butfromtheimbalanceintheenergystructureofsupplyanddemandduetothelarge-scaleneedforcleanenergy.ThisisthebasisforChina.senergysecurityproblem,ofwhichthedeficiencyinoilisthemajorproblem.Duetoglobalization,theenergysecurityofacountryisnotonlyaneconomicproblem,butalsopoliticalandmilitaryproblems.Itiscloselyaffectedbysupplyanddemandandtheexternaldependenceofthecountry,aswellasbythediplomaticrelationsbetweentheaffectedcountryandthosecountrieswithrichresources,thecountry.smilitaryinfluenceanditspotentialforcontrol.Atpresent,thesupplyanddemandforoilfacegreaterimbalancesasChina.sentryintotheWTOputsgreaterpressuresonitsenergyindustry.Therefore,ChinashouldformulateanenergysecuritystrategywithChinesecharacteristics.CounterTerrorismStrategies,theWaragainstIraq,andtheAmericanScrambleforGlobalOilWuLei(17)TheauthorbelievesthataroundthetimeofSeptember11,therewereinherentandessentiallinksbetweenthecounterterrorismglobalstrategiesoftheUnitedStatesanditsglobaloilstrategies.AfterthewarinAfghanistan,initsglob