亚洲能源使用和清洁发展机制的机会

AITRamM.ShresthaAsianInstituteofTechnologyThailand25thMarch2004EnergyUseandCleanDevelopmentMechanismOpportunitiesinAsiaAITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004PresentationOutlineEconomicGrowth,EnergyrequirementandCO2emissionsSectoralEnergyRelatedCO2EmissioninAsiaTypesofEnergyRelatedCDMProjectsPotentialCDMprojectsbysectorMarginalAbatementCostsofSomeCleanerPowerProjectsFinalRemarksAITEconomicGrowth,EnergyrequirementandCO2emissionsAITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004CO2Emissions,TotalPrimaryEnergySupplyandGDPinOECDandDevelopingAsiaduring1990-19990.80.911.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.819901991199219931994199519961997199819991990value=1CO2TPESGDPSource:IEA20010.80.911.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020011990value=1.0CO2GDPTPESOECDDevelopingAsiaAITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004CO2Emissions:ShareofDevelopingAsia,OECDandotherRegions58%12%30%OECDDevelopingAsiaOtherregions58%12%30%53%22%25%TotalCo2emissiionsin1981=17815milliomtonnes58%12%30%TotalCo2emissiionsin1999=22818milliomtonnes58%12%30%Source:IEA200119811999AsiaAsiaOECDOECDAITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004AverageAnnualGrowthRatesofGDP,EnergySupplyandCO2Emissionduring1990-2000GDP(1995$)TPESCO2OECD2.251.651.12Japan1.291.821.15DevelopingAsia6.684.303.23China9.843.602.80India5.454.694.57Thailand4.368.097.22Malaysia6.568.136.87SouthKorea6.458.026.65SourceIEA2001•TPES=TotalPrimaryEnergySupply•GrowthofenergyrequirementandCO2inAsiaiswayabovethatofOECDcountriesAITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004CO2andEnergyintensitiesandFossilfueldependence(SouthAsia)EnergyIntensity0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.019921993199419951996199719981999'000QuadTPER/1995USDBangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalSrilankaPakistanOECDCO2Intensity0.000.501.001.502.002.5019921993199419951996199719981999kgCO2/1995USDBangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalSrilankaPakistanOECDFossilfueldependence35.0045.0055.0065.0075.0085.0095.00105.0019921993199419951996199719981999%FossilfuelinTPERBangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalSrilankaPakistanOECD•EnergyandCO2intensityinmajorcountriesmuchhigherthanOECDaverageDatasource:EIAwebsite,March2004AITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004CO2andEnergyintensitiesandFossilfueldependence(SouthEastAsia)EnergyIntensity0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0019921993199419951996199719981999'000QuadTPER/1995USDIndonesiaLaosMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandVietnamOECDCO2Intensity0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.8019921993199419951996199719981999kgCO2/1995USDIndonesiaLaosMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandVietnamOECDFossilfueldependence40.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.00110.0019921993199419951996199719981999%FossilfuelinTPERIndonesiaLaosMalaysiaPhilippinesVietnamThailandOECDEnergyIntensityandCO2intensityarenotonlyhigherbutalsoincreasinginmostcountriesDatasource:EIAwebsite,March2004AITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004CO2andEnergyintensityandFossilfueldependence(OtherAsia)EnergyIntensity0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.0019921993199419951996199719981999'000QuadTPER/1995USDSouthKoreaChinaMongoliaOECDCO2Intensity0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.0019921993199419951996199719981999kgCO2/1995USDSouthKoreaChinaMongoliaOECDEnergyandCO2intensityofChinaandMongoliaareveryhighcomparedtoOECDaverage,thoughshowadecliningtrendDatasource:EIAwebsite,March2004AITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004ProjectedCO2emissions2000-2025CO2emissionprojections01,0002,0003,0004,0005,00019902000200120052010201520202025milliontonneCO2DevelopingcountriesDevelopedCountriesEE/FSU•Withoutsignificanteffortsinmitigation,DevelopingcountrycontributiontototalworldemissionswillbehigherthanDevelopedcountriesby2020.Datasource:EIAwebsite,March2004AITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004ClimatechangeandSustainability•ClimateChangecouldadverselyaffectmanydevelopingcountriesinthelongrun•GHGMitigationwouldenhancesustainabledevelopmentAITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004CerealProductionImpactofClimateChangeCGCM1,2080sSource:–26thMarch,2004FossilfuelconsumptionincreasehasbothlongandshorttermimplicationsOnEnvironment–e.g.,increasedairpollutionOneconomy–e.g.,dependencyonimportsofenergyAIT04080120160200DelhiCairoCalculttaTianjinChongquingKanpurLucknowShenyangZhengzhouJinanLanzhouBejingTaiyuanAhmedabadJakartaChengduPM10,microgramspercubicmeterPM10concentration(1999)inselectedcitiesintheworldOutof16citiesintheworldwithPM10concentration100micrograms/m3,15citiesareinAsiaand14ofthemareinChinaandIndia.Source:WorldDevelopmentIndicators2003AITIGES-URCWorkshopinAsia,24th–26thMarch,2004SO2concentration(1990-98)intheselectedcitiesintheworld050100150200250300350400450GuiyangChongquingTaiyuanTehranZiboQuingdaoJinanRiodeJanerioIstanbulAnshanMoscowLanzhouLiupanshuiYokohamaShenyangBeijingSO2,microgramspercubicmeterWHOguideline=50microgramspercubicmeterOutof30citiesexceedingWHOguidelineintheworld,23citiesareinAsiaand20citiesareonlyinChina.Source:WorldDevelopmentIndicators2