基于数据仓库的需求预测精度的趋势分析

上海交通大学硕士学位论文基于数据仓库的需求预测精度的趋势分析姓名：唐波申请学位级别：硕士专业：计算机技术指导教师：薛质;王法明20071201IERPII:AbstractIIIFORECASTACCURACYTRENDRESEARCHANDANALYSISBASEDONDATAWAREHOUSESOLUTIONAbstractForecastAccuracy(FA)isproposetomeasurethefistlevelforecastofsalesintelecommenterprise.Indailyproductionactivities,salesneedtodoquantitiesforecastaccordingtodifferentcustomersalesdemandwhichcouldbepossibleinthenextcoupleofmonths.Soplanningdepartmentcanarrangeproductionplanaccordinglytomeetthedeliveryrequired.Eventhoughsalesdemandisnottheactualsalescontract,salesneedtodoforecastaheadoftimeforthecomingsalescontract.Itrequiressalestoperformaccuracyforecastandestimation.Atsametime,theactualsalesrecordedinERP.TherequirementofFAiscomingout.TheForecastAccuracymetricsareeditedonceamonth.ThetotalFAvalueiscalculatedasweightedsumofthevaluesrelevanttoeachForecastedition.Salespersoncanimprovehisforecastlevelcomparisontohispreviouslyones.Theplanningandwarehousedepartmentcanarrangestockreasonably.Thusithelpstoimproveontimedeliveryandsavestorage.Enterpriseresourcecanbeconfiguredaccurately.Thecentraldatawarehousebuildthedatamodelbyanalysisthebusinessdatawithfactanddimensionmodel.Thismodelpurposeistointegratethedatafromdifferentsourceintodatacenter.Thedatahasbeencleanedandconvertedasstandardformat.Thedataalsohasbeentransformedbytherulesandloadintodatastaging.ThetrendanalysisforFAisbasedontheaboveformulaandtrendmethodtoexportthedataslicefromproducts,customer,andgeographydimension.Thepurposeistosupplytrenddiagramtomeetthedifferentmanagementlevelcheckrequirement.Alsodailytrackincluded.Sothatitcansupportdecisionmakingtoreachtheoptimizationofresourceconfigurationtosavethemanagementcostaccordingly.Keywords:forecastaccuracy,trendanalysis,datawarehouse,dimension,visibility.VI2-1[3].......................................................................................................62-2-[3].......................................................................................103-1[2].................................................................................................................................124-1................................................................................................................214-2................................................................................................................234-3............................................................264-4....................................................................................................................275-1...............................................................................................................................295-2............................................................................................................305-3DM........................................................................................345-4DM........................................................................................345-5SAP...........................................................................................355-6SAP...............................................................................355-7DM........................................................................355-8SAP.......................................................................365-9DM............................................................................365-10SAP.........................................................................365-11codelogisticitemcode..................................................................375-12......................................................................................................................385-13FA-Month-n...........................................................................385-14FA-..........................................................................................395-15FA-()................................................405-16FA-()................................................415-17..........................................................................................................................42IIIII1111.1-ForecastAccuracyFA/FA1.2120?FAforecastaccuracyOTD(ontimedelivery)FAFAFAFA1.313-FAFADemandManagement,ERPexcel102422.1“20067200651.32451.0575/1.255/6.5%3.1%9929.9%(2003)3.1%[9]3.1%[?]————(1000)25[1]2.22.32-1262-1[3]Figure2-1Theimpactofforecasttosupplychainoperation────51236272528────[3]70%90%2.4,[2]292.5,,242102.62-1-[3]Figure2-2Theimprovementofforecastaccuracy:feedbacktorevise2-2585786878[3]2.7211[10]3-FA123-FA3.13-1[2]Figure3-1Forecastprocess•DM••Planning•forecastaccuracy(FA)firstlevel3-FA13globalteamFA3.21234──[12]3-FA1430090050502000.2351800──250101253-FA153-1vsFigure3-2Forecastsales(%)VsActualsales(%)21%20.50%29%30.30%29%28.90%21%20.30%100%100%3.312345“”1──2──3──4──3-FA16454555──OEM[14]3-FA173-2Figure3-3Actualmonthlyanddailysalesvolume3340002215,2003100002015,500338,0002314,700“”“”“”──12“”3-FA183.4FA(Ord)(Fcst)6OrdFcstFcst=Ord00FcstOrdFcstOrd(FA)1.(FE)=1-Ord/Fcst=1-Fcst/O