城市生命周期及其理论模型

:2002-09-23;:2002-12-05:(40100030);(49971008):(1979-),,,E-mail:[e-mail]1,1,2(1.,200062;2.,100080):,,::;;;:F29:A:1672-0504(2003)01-0055-04,,,,,,,,,,[1],,,[2],,[3],[4],,,,,,12050,,,1957Megalopolis,,2500,,,[1,5],2040a,10a50a[6](1)20,,1900,,1940,,,(2)2050,,,,,,19120031GeographyandGeo-InformationScienceVol.19No.1January2003©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(3)2070,,,,,,,(Counter-urbanization)2060,,709(4),,2080,,,,,19801984,7,(Re-urbanization)2,,,[7],,,(De-industrialization),,,(Snow-belt),,,,,,,[8]:1);2)YmiiYmi=(1),:=(K(t))(2)K(t)0tK(t)=t0m0Ymi()did(3)K,,():=evKevK+(4),(0)=/(1+),,,,,,,,3(K3),K3,,3(x)(x)(4),3(0)(K)(5),,:U(3(),)U((K),L)(0)(6),,,,,L1,L2,1U1U2AA,6519©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()[9],,,,JonesCaves[10,11],:1),a,b;2),,,,a,,,,,,3)b,a;4);5);6),,:Pj=ni=1ijPi+KjRj+LjW(7)Pj;Pi;ij;Kj;Lj;Rj;W,j,,VjVj=pj-ni=1ijPi(8)Vj=KjRj+LjW(9),(),,(),(2)2:VjRj,Vj=KjRj+LjW,KjVj,LjKjRjVjLjW,CB,Vj,VjB,,,,,;VjC,,,C,;VjA,;VjA,,2Fig.2Thechangesofthepricesofthelaborforce,BC,Vj,,,,,,,,,751:©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[11]4,(1),,,,,,,[12],,,[13],[14](2),,,,,,,,2080,,,(3),,,,,,,,:[1],,.[M].:,1996.36-55.[2],.[J].,2000,8(2):56-64.[3].[J].,1999(5):86-90.[4].[J].,1998,57(2):77-80.[5],.[J].,2000,15(4):1-4.[6],,,.[J].,2002,57(2):135-142.[7]BairochP.CitiesandEconomicDevelopment:FromtheDawnofHistorytothePresent[M].Chicago:ChicagoUniversityPress,1998.[8]BrezisE,PKrugman.TechnologyandtheLifeCycleofCities[J].EconomicGrowth,1997(2):369-326.[9],,.:[J].,2000,9(2):79-86.[10]VNBalasubmanyam.ExportProcessingZonesinDevelopmentCountries:TheoryandEmpiricalEvidence[M].Allen&Unwin,1982.[11].[J].,2001(1):19-25.[12],.[J].,1998(3):22-27.[13],.[J].,1998(6):21-23.[14].[J].,1998,22(6):22-28.TheLifeCycleofCitiesandItsTheoreticModelWUBing1,WANGZheng1,2(1.Urban&EnvironmentalInformationScienceOpenLaboratory,EastChinaNormalUniversity,Shanghai200062;2.InstituteofPolicyandManagement,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080,China)Abstract:Centralization,sub-urbanization,counter-urbanizationandre-urbanizationarethemainphaseinthecycleofmetropo2lis.Thelifecycleofurbandevelopmentzonesissubjectedtothenewinternationaldivisionoflabor.Theanalysesofthelifecycleofcitiesinthispaperprovidesomeconclusionsthatwillbeusefulforourcitiesdevelopmentandmanagementinthenextdecade.Keywords:thelifecycleofcities;metropolis;urbandevelopmentzones;technologicalchanges8519©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.