我国新能源发展障碍与应对全球现状评述

Vol.31No.5:759-767ActaGeoscienticaSinicaOct.2010:759-767(:ywf0906,ywf1007,K0812)(:E0811):2010-07-21;:2010-08-31:,,1972:100037,26:010-68999655E-mail:[e-mail]:,,,,,,100037摘要:,,9,,,,,,,,,关键词:;;;中图分类号:TK01;F062.1文献标志码:A文章编号:1006-3021(2010)05-759-09DevelopmentObstaclesofNewEnergiesinChinaandCountermeasures:AReviewonGlobalCurrentSituationYANQiang,CHENYu-chuan,WANGAn-jian,WANGGao-shang,YUWen-jia,CHENQi-shenResearchCenterforStrategyofGlobalMineralResources,CAGS,Beijing100037Abstract:Itisdifficultforthecurrentenergyconsumptionpatterndominatedbyfossilenergytomeetthedemandofsustainabledevelopment.Soitisimperativetooptimizeenergyconsumptionstructureandtocutdownthede-pendenceonfossilenergy.Underthisbackground,developmentofnewenergieswithfriendlyenvironment,com-parativelybalanceddistributionandinfinitepotentialhasbecomecommonunderstandinginvariouscountries.Newenergiesincludetotallyninetypes:solarenergy,windenergy,biomassenergy,geothermalenergy,oceanen-ergy,hydrogenenergy,gashydrate,nuclearenergyandfusionenergy.Inexploitingandusingnewenergies,manyproblemshavetobetackledinplanning,managementandtechnology,andtheseproblemsaremorecomplicatedthanproblemsexistentinfossilenergy.Thisisbecauseoftheabundantsortsofnewenergiesandtheirgreatdif-ferencesintheaspectsofresourceendowmentandphysical-chemicalcharacteristics.Improperdevelopmentmeasureswouldnotonlycauseeconomiclossbutalsopossiblyendangerhumansecurity.Onthebasisofoverallanddeepunderstandingofglobalnewenergydevelopment,theearnestsummarizationofexperienceandlessonsofothercountriesandtheformulationofthedevelopmentstrategyconstitutetheantecedenceworkwithimportantsignificanceindevelopingandutilizingnewenergies.Basedonareviewoftheresourcepotential,technologicallevelandgeneraldevelopmentsituationandathoroughanalysisofobstaclesinthenewenergydevelopmentprocessinChina,thispaperputsforwardnewenergydevelopmentpoliciesinaccordancewiththerealityofChina.Keywords:newenergy;developmentstatus;analysisofobstacles;strategiccountermeasures,760,,,,,101500,203050%,205080%,2009,346,2,,(,2010;,2010;,2010;,2002;,2010;,2010;,2010;,2010;,2010;,2010;,2010;,2009),,,,,,1新能源范围的界定,:,,;,;,,;,,;,,,9:,,,,;,,,2新能源技术发展现状20,,,,,,,200111,(CDM),,,4(1),;,;,;图1新能源技术发展阶段Fig.1Newenergydevelopmentstages::761,,;,,20%,,,,,7000kW,10000kW,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,200611,7(ITER),100,,,2035,20553新能源开发利用现状2007,120.29toe,,14.92toe,12.4%(2)7.1toe,5.9%3.73kW,2.6kWh,,9.6%,80%,20%,17.7%,2.2%,2.4%,生物质能9.6%水电2.2%非可再生废弃物0.2%煤炭26.4%石油34%其他0.6%可再生能源12.4%核能5.9%天然气20.9%图22007年全球一次能源结构(来源:国际能源机构(IEA),2009)Fig.2Globalprimaryenergystructurein2007(source:InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),2009)76219%,(3)2007,1.65kW,3.7%(1),,,,,20091300kW,,2510kW,,,200814.5kW,1%,,(SHC,2009;EPIA,2010;GWEC,2010;Licht,2008;RFA,2009;REN21,2009;,2006;IGA,2010;Lund,2006;Bertani,2007;WNA,2010)1%,859kW,653kWh,2.3%2.5%,2000kW,10~204我国新能源发展障碍分析,生物气1.1%城市垃圾0.9%生物质能77.3%生物液体燃料2.4%地热能3.3%水能17.7%风能1%固体生物质能72.9%太阳能与潮汐能0.6%图32007年全球可再生能源结构(来源:IEA,2009)Fig.3Globalrenewableenergystructurein2007(source:IEA,2009)表1全球及我国新能源开发利用现况Table1GlobalandChina’sdevelopmentstatusofnewenergy(%)()2007kW905165045.52007kW14801987742007kW799014558552008kW26068038.22008kW4.55560.82008kW14.5147312009kW1300374734.72009kW25101579015.92008kWh12826004.92008toe10628572.92007toe87561.12007toe534169331.52007kW30048506.22006kWh6423942.72005kW3692827132005toe10865316.62007kW39730.32006kWh15920.22007kW1.1303.72007kWh0.263.32010kW859372692.32008kWh653260102.5:::763,,,,4.1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4.2,,,,,,,,,,,,,4.3,,,,1,,1.5,1.7,11~18,,,,4.4,,,,,,,,,,15,,,,,,,,,,,764,,4.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5我国发展新能源的对策建议,,200921toe203035~41toe,,11%27%,(,2002;,2010),,,,,,(,2008),,,,,:5.1,,,1,,,,,,,,,,5.2,,,5,,,,,,,,,::765,,,,,,,,,,,5.3,,,,,,,,CDM,,,,,,,,5.4,,,,,,,,,,,,5.5(2005-2020),,,20101000kW,20203000kW,,1000kW2008,3000kW2010;,,,,,,5.6,,,,,,(IEA),,766,(33%),,,,6结语,,,,,,,,,,,,参考文献:.2008.[J].,42(3):345-359.,,.2010.[J].,31(5):733-740.,,,.2010.[J].,31(5):686-692.,,.2010.CO2[J].,31(5):741-748.,,.2009.[J].,30(6):855-867.,,,.2010.[J].,31(5):693-698.,,,.2010.[J].,31(2):137-147..2010.[J].,31(5):621-627.,.2002.[J].,23(6):483-490..2010.[J].,31(5):693-698.,,,.2010.[J].,31(5):720-726.,,.2010.“”[J].,31(5):635-644..2006.[R].:.,,,.2010.[J].,31(5):666-672.References:BERTANIR.2007.WorldGeothermalGenerationin2007[R].Unterhaching,Germany:ProceedingsEuropeanGeothermalCongress.CGS.2006.GeothermalResourcesandCurrentStatusofDevelop-mentinChina[R].Beijing:ChinaGeologicalSurvey(inChi-nese).EPIA.2010.GlobalMarketOutlookuntil2013[R].Brussels,Bel-gium:EuropeanPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation.GWEC.2010.GlobalWindPowerBoomContinuesDespiteEco-nomicWoes[R].Brussels,Belgium:GlobalWindEnergyCouncil.IEA.2009.RenewablesInformation2009[R].Paris:InternationalEnergyAgency.IGA.2010.GeothermalintheWorld(DirectUses)[R].Reykjavik,Iceland:InternationalGeothermalAssociation.JIANGZe-min.2008.ReflectionsonEnergyIssuesinChina[J].JournalofShanghaiJiaotongUniversity,42(3):345-359(inChinesewithEnglishabstract).LIJian-wu,WANGAn-jian,WANGGao-shang.2010.A