美孚能源行业XXXX-2040年展望XXXXOutlookforEnergy

2012TheOutlookforEnergy:AViewto2040Thispresentationincludesforward-lookingstatements.Actualfutureconditions(includingeconomicconditions,energydemand,andenergysupply)coulddiffermateriallyduetochangesintechnology,thedevelopmentofnewsupplysources,politicalevents,demographicchanges,andotherfactorsdiscussedhereinandundertheheading“FactorsAffectingFutureResults”intheInvestorssectionofourwebsiteat:’sinternalestimatesandforecastsbaseduponinternaldataandanalysesaswellaspubliclyavailableinformationfromexternalsourcesincludingtheInternationalEnergyAgency.ThismaterialisnottobeusedorreproducedwithoutthepermissionofExxonMobilCorporation.Allrightsreserved.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlookGlobalfundamentals4Residential/commercial10Transportation16Industrial22Electricitygeneration26Emissions32Supplyandtechnology36Conclusion48Data/glossary49ContentsTheOutlookforEnergy:AViewto20401WelcometoTheOutlookforEnergy,ExxonMobil’slong-termviewoftheworld’senergyfuture.Withthisedition,wehaveexpandedtheOutlooktotheyear2040forthefirsttime.Whatdoweseeoverthenext30years?Theanswertothatquestionvariesbyregion,reflectingdiverseeconomicanddemographictrendsaswellastheevolutionoftechnologyandgovernmentpolicies.Everywhere,though,weseeenergybeingusedmoreefficientlyandenergysuppliescontinuingtodiversifyasnewtechnologiesandsourcesemerge.Otherkeyfindingsofthisyear’sOutlookinclude:Globalenergydemandwillbeabout30percenthigherin2040comparedto2010,aseconomicoutputmorethandoublesandprosperityexpandsacrossaworldwhosepopulationwillgrowtonearly9billionpeople.Energydemandgrowthwillslowaseconomiesmature,efficiencygainsaccelerateandpopulationgrowthmoderates.InthecountriesbelongingtotheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)–includingcountriesinNorthAmericaandEurope–weseeenergyuseremainingessentiallyflat,evenasthesecountriesachieveeconomicgrowthandevenhigherlivingstandards.Incontrast,NonOECDenergydemandwillgrowbycloseto60percent.China’ssurgeinenergydemandwillextendoverthenexttwodecadesthengraduallyflattenasitseconomyandpopulationmature.Elsewhere,billionsofpeoplewillbeworkingtoadvancetheirlivingstandards–requiringmoreenergy.Theneedforenergytomakeelectricitywillremainthesinglebiggestdriverofdemand.By2040,electricitygenerationwillaccountformorethan40percentofglobalenergyconsumption.Demandforcoalwillpeakandbeginagradualdecline,inpartbecauseofemergingpoliciesthatwillseektocurbemissionsbyimposingacostonhigher-carbonfuels.Useofrenewableenergiesandnuclearpowerwillgrowsignificantly.Oil,gasandcoalcontinuetobethemostwidelyusedfuels,andhavethescaleneededtomeetglobaldemand,makingupabout80percentoftotalenergyconsumptionin2040.Naturalgaswillgrowfastenoughtoovertakecoalforthenumber-twopositionbehindoil.Demandfornaturalgaswillrisebymorethan60percentthrough2040.Forbothoilandnaturalgas,anincreasingshareofglobalsupplywillcomefromunconventionalsourcessuchasthoseproducedfromshaleformations.Gainsinefficiencythroughenergy-savingpracticesandtechnologies–suchashybridvehiclesandnew,high-efficiencynaturalgaspowerplants–willtemperdemandgrowthandcurbemissions.Globalenergy-relatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionswillgrowslowly,thenleveloffaround2030.IntheUnitedStatesandEurope,whereashiftfromcoaltolesscarbon-intensivefuelssuchasnaturalgasalreadyisunderway,emissionswilldeclinethrough2040.ExxonMobilusesTheOutlookforEnergytoguideourglobalinvestmentdecisions.Becauseweknowthattheworld’senergyfuturewillbeshapedbydecisionsmadenotjustbycompanieslikeours,butalsobypolicymakersandconsumers,wesharethisdocumentpubliclytoencourageabroaderunderstandingofenergyissuesthataffectusall.TheOutlookforEnergy:AViewto2040“Inthedecadesahead,theworldwillneedtoexpandenergysuppliesinawaythatissafe,secure,affordableandenvironmentallyresponsible.Thescaleofthechallengeisenormousandrequiresanintegratedsetofsolutionsandthepursuitofalleconomicoptions.”RexW.Tillerson,ExxonMobilChairmanandCEOTheOutlookforEnergy:AViewto204032exxonmobil.com/energyoutlookEnergyineverydaylivesFromcarstocellphones,pharmaceuticalstoplasticsandairconditioningtowaterheating,energyispartofpeople’slivesmorethaneverbefore.Butenergy’sbenefitsextendfarbeyondwhatpeopleuseindividuallyathome,atworkandontheroad.Arangeofessentialactivities–includingagriculture,computing,manufacturing,construction,andhealthandsocialservices–dependsonaccesstomodernenergy.Inaddition,manyfamiliarelementsofmodernlifewouldnotexistwithouttheplastics,chemicalsandfertilizersmadefromoilandnaturalgas.TheOutlookforEnergy:AViewto20403TheOutlookforEnergy:AViewto20405TheOutlookforEnergy:AViewto20405GlobalfundamentalsConsiderhowmodernenergyenrichesyourlife.Nowconsiderthe7billionotherpeopleonearthwhoalsouseenergyeachdaytomaketheirownlivesricher,moreproductive,saferandhealthier.Thenyouwillrecognizewhatisperhapsthebiggestdriverofenergydemand:thehumandesiretosustainandimprovethewell-beingofourselves,ourfamiliesandourcommunities.Through2040,populationandeconomicgrowthwilldrivedemandhigher,buttheworldwilluseenergymoreefficientlyandshifttowar