能源_经济_环境复杂系统建模与应用进展

2211,21,21(1.,100080;2.,230026):,2,,22:;;bottom2up;top2down;:TQ534:A:1672-884Ò(2005)02-0159-12ProgressinModelingforEnergy-Economy-EnvironmentComplexSystemandItsApplicationsWeiYiming1,WuGang1,2,LiuLancui1,2,FanYing1(1.InstituteofPolicy&Management,ChineseAcademyofScience,Beijing,China;2.ChinaUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Hefei,China)Abstract:Fromtheviewpointofcomplexsystemmodeling,sometypicalandwidelyappliedenergymodelsdevelopedbyinternationalorganizationswereanalyzedsystematically,andtheirmodelingapproaches,functions,andmodelingstructureaswellastheirtypicalapplicationsreviewedtohelpfurtherstudyanddevelopintheareaofmodelingandanalysisofthecomplexsystemconsistingoftheenergy,economyandenvironment.Keywords:energysystem;complexsystemmodeling;bottom2upmodels;top2downmodels;mixedmodels:2004-11-29:(7042500170371064);(2004BA616A201)2070,,,MARKAL(theMarketAllocationofTechnologiesModel)EFOM(EnergyFlowOptimizationModel)MEDEE(ModelDemandEnergyEurope);80,,,,,1985,,,AIM(Asian2PacificIntegratedModel)LEAP(Long2rangeEnergyAlternativesPlanningSystem)EFOM2ENV(EnergyFlowOptimizationModel2Environment);90,,,,(),,22,CGE(ComputationalGeneralEquilibriumModel)3Es2Model(Macroeconomic,EnergyandEnvironmentSub2model)MESSAGE(theModelforEnergySupplySystemsAlternative);(mixedenergymodel),NEMS(theNationalEnergyModelingSystems)IIASA2WECE3(theIIASA2WECEnergyEconomicEnvironment),9512220053ChineseJournalofManagementVol.2No.2Mar.200511.1,,,,,112MACRO2AIM223Es2ModelIIASA2WECE3POLESMESSAGECGE2HERMESPRIMESMEDEEERISIIASA2WECE3GEM2E3NEMSLEAPCGEMARKALNEMS1.2,(1)(Top2DownModel),,,CGE,,,,,,(2)(Bottom2UpModel),,:,,IEA(InternationalEnergyAgency)MARKALEFOM;,,MEDEE(theStockholmEnvironmentInstitute)LEAP,,(NationalInstituteforEnvironmentStudies,NIES)AIM,,,,,,,,,22(3)(MixedEnergyModel)(0612220053),,,,,(DOE)NEMS(theInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,IIASA)(theWorldEnergyCouncil,WEC)IIASA2WECE322,,,,,,,322;;;,;;;;;;,[1]CGENorway3Es2ModelNUTöJapanMACROIIASAGEM2E3NTUAöEU;;;;2;;;;,;;;;,;;[1]MARKALETSAPöIEAMESSAGEIIASAEFOMEUMEDEEIEPEöFranceERISPSINTUAandIIASALEAPSEIöSwedenAIMNIESöJapan;;;;;;,,,;;;,,NEMSEIAöDOEofAmericaIIASA2WECE3IIASAandWECPRIMESJOULEöEUPOLESJOULEöEUMIDASJOULEöEU22.1(1)CGECGE,WalrasCGEJohansen196022CGE2080,CGE,16122GrkanSelcukKumbaroGlu[2]CGE,ArvydasGalinis[3]CGE,[47]CGE,CO2CGEPRCGEM,5%10%20%CO2,CO2[8]CGE[9],22CGE(2)3Es2Model3Es2Model(NagaokaUniversityofTechnology)22,3Es3Es,,631,,,,LiZhidong[10]3Es2030(3)MACROMACROManne[11]GDP,,ChaeYoungLim[12]EFOM2MACRO,WenyingChen[13]MARKAL2MACRO2050CO2GDPYorgosE.Papatheodorou[14]MACRO(4)SOLFEGEöGEM2E3SOLFEGEöGEM2E3(GeneralEquilibriumModelforEnergy2Economics2Environment)2090,GEM2E3,CGE[15]GEM2E3,,,;;[16]Proost[17]OlivierBahn[18]GEM2E3,,(OECD)1993GREEN(GeneralEquilibriumEnvironmentalModel)[19](InstituteforEnergyEconomicandEfficientEnergyuse,IER)1996(National,European,andWorldwideAppliedGeneralEquilibriumSystem,NEWAGE)[20]20802(HarmonizedEuropeanResearchforMacrosectoralandEnergySystems,HERMES)[21]2.2(1)MARKALMARKAL2070,80ETSAPöIEAMARKAL,20,MARKAL3777MARKAL,[22,23]MARKAL,2612220053,21,BarryNaughten[23]MARKAL,DolfGielen[24]MARKAL20002020O.Sato[25]MARKAL19902050CO2,EricD.Larson[26]MARKAL,,,B.Rydn[27]MARKAL5,CHP(combinedheatandpower),(2)MESSAGEMESSAGE(IIASA)Messner[28],,,RES(ReferenceEnergySystem),MESSAGE,3,,AndriiGritsevskyi[29],MESSAGE3,S.Messner[30]FelixB.Dayo[31]MESSAGE,2010(3)EFOMEFOM19822080,EFOM,EFOM,[32]PoulErikGrohnheit[33]EFOMC.Cormio[34]EFOM,HanneleHolttinen[35]EMPS(Multi2AreaPowerMarketSimulator)EFOMCO2A.Lehtilab[36]EFOM,CO2EFOM2CHP,[32]A.Rahimi[37]EFOM2CHPEFOM2ENV,,,[38]J.Remmers[39];E.Plinke[40]EFOM2ENV;EckhardPlinke[41](4)MEDEEMEDEEIEPE(theInstituteofEnergyPolicyandEconomics)2080,MEDEE2s,,5,[42]BrunoLapillonne[43]MEDEE33612219852000MichaelMessenger[44]MEDEEB.Lapillonne[45]MEDEE,MEDEEO.Bahn[46]MEDEE(5)ERISERIS(EnergyResearchandInvestmentStrategy)TEEM(TechnologyEndogenisationinEnergyModels)MESSAGE,,[47,48]RTD(ResearchandTechnologyDevelopment),(NLP),PSI(thePaulScherrerInstitute)ERIS(MIP),NLPMIP,MIPERIS,PSINTUA(theNationalTechnicalUniversityofAthens)93:R&D[49]LeonardoBarreto[50]ERISR&D,,AsamiMiketa[51]ERISR&D(6)LEAPLEAPSEI(STOCKHOLMEnvironmentInstitute),,,[52]BaoleiGuo[53]LEAPAmitKumar[54]LEAP,CO2Ho2ChulShin[55]LEAPRanjanKumarBose[56]LEAP,()B.K.Bala[57],LEAP,(7)AIMAIMNIES1994,,,AIM3,AIMöemission;AIMöclimate;AIMöimpact[58],,,,KejunJiang[59]AIM,YuzuruMatsuoka[60],AIM,AIMöimpactMikikoKainuma[61],(),AIMCO2,:(MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,MIT)1996EPPAModel(EmissionsPredictionandPolicyAnalysis)[62];IER1993IKARUS(InstrumentsforReducingGreenhouseGasStrategies)[63,64]46122200532.3(1)NEMSNEMS(theNationalEnergyModelingSystems)EIAöDOE1993,,NEMS424111,,[6567]S.W.Hadley[68]CEF2NEMS(ScenariosforaCleanEnergyFuture)CO2(2)IIASA2WECE3IIASA2WECE3(theIIASA2WECEnergyEconomicEnvironment)IIASAWEC209022,SCENARIOGENERATORModelRAINSModelMESSAGEModelMACROModelBLSModelMAGICCModelGCMModelSoft2LinkingandScenarioDefinitionandEvaluation,[69]IIASA2WECE311,3(),,[70],SCENARIOGENERATOR,30KeywanRiahi[71]SGMESSAGEMACROMAGICC1990