能源、食品安全与印度的甘蔗生物乙醇经济学(英文版)

ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesClimateChangeandAgriculturalInterregionalTradeFlowsinthePeople’sRepublicofChinaTunLin,XiaoyunLiu,GuanghuaWan,XianXin,andYongshengZhangNo.244|January2011ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesNo.244ClimateChangeandAgriculturalInterregionalTradeFlowsinthePeople’sRepublicofChinaTunLin,XiaoyunLiu,GuanghuaWan,XianXin,andYongshengZhangJanuary2011TunLinisNaturalResourcesEconomist,EastAsiaDepartment,AsianDevelopmentBank.XiaoyunLiuisProfessorattheChinaAgriculturalUniversity.GuanghuaWanisPrincipalEconomistintheEconomicsandResearchDepartment,AsianDevelopmentBank(ADB).XianXinisProfessorattheChinaAgriculturalUniversity.YongshengZhangisProfessorattheDevelopmentResearchCenter,People’sRepublicofChina.HelpfulcommentsfromparticipantsinvariousgroupdiscussionsorganizedbyADBarealsofullyappreciated.ThispaperispartoftheresearchworkfundedbyADB(ProjectNumber:43068).Theauthorsacceptresponsibilityforanyerrorsinthepaper.AsianDevelopmentBank6ADBAvenue,MandaluyongCity1550MetroManila,Philippines©2010byAsianDevelopmentBankJanuary2011ISSN1655-5252PublicationStockNo.WPS113173Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank.TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesisaforumforstimulatingdiscussionandelicitingfeedbackonongoingandrecentlycompletedresearchandpolicystudiesundertakenbytheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)staff,consultants,orresourcepersons.Theseriesdealswithkeyeconomicanddevelopmentproblems,particularlythosefacingtheAsiaandPacificregion;aswellasconceptual,analytical,ormethodologicalissuesrelatingtoproject/programeconomicanalysis,andstatisticaldataandmeasurement.TheseriesaimstoenhancetheknowledgeonAsia’sdevelopmentandpolicychallenges;strengthenanalyticalrigorandqualityofADB’scountrypartnershipstrategies,anditssubregionalandcountryoperations;andimprovethequalityandavailabilityofstatisticaldataanddevelopmentindicatorsformonitoringdevelopmenteffectiveness.TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesisaquick-disseminating,informalpublicationwhosetitlescouldsubsequentlyberevisedforpublicationasarticlesinprofessionaljournalsorchaptersinbooks.TheseriesismaintainedbytheEconomicsandResearchDepartment.ContentsAbstractvI.Introduction1II.Methodology2III.SimulationResults3A.20305B.20505V.ConcludingRemarks8References8AbstractTheimpactsofclimatechangeonagriculturalproductioninthePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC)aresignificant,anddifferacrossregionsandcrops.Thesubstantialregionaldifferenceswillinducechangesintheagriculturalinterregionaltradepattern.Inthispaper,weinvestigatetheclimatechangeimpactsonthistradepattern,usingacomputablegeneralequilibriummodelofmultipleregionsandmultiplesectors.TheresultsindicatethatNorthwest,South,Central,andNortheastPRCwillseeincreasesintheoutflowsofagriculturalproductsin2030and2050.Conversely,outflowsfromEast,North,andSouthwestPRCwilldecrease.Grainhandlingandtransportationfacilitiesneedtoberepositionedtoaddressthechangesinagriculturaltradeflows.I.IntroductionThePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC)isoneofthecountriesthataremostvulnerabletoclimatechange(Germanwatch2010).Studiesindicatethatglobaltemperaturewillincreaseby1.5ºC–5.0ºCwithinthe21stcentury(Darwinetal.1995).TheChinaNationalClimateCenterprojectsthatthePRC’stemperaturewillrisebylessthan2.5ºCbytheendofthe21stcentury(CNCC2009).ClimatechangewillhavesignificantimpactsonthePRC’sgrainoutputs,whichwilldifferacrossregionsandgraincrops(Linetal.2010).StudiesalsoindicatethattheimpactsofclimatechangeonthePRC’slivestockandvegetablesectorsdifferacrossregions(LiuandXin2010).Thesesubstantialregionaldifferenceswillinducechangesinagriculturalinterregionaltradepatterns,bothintermsofvolumesanddirectionsofchange.This,inturn,willgeneratedemandforchangesingrainhandlingandtransportationarrangements.Iftransportationfacilitiescouldnotbeadjustedtomeetthesechanges,agriculturalpricesmayrisesharplyinthoseregionswithsignificantdeclineinagriculturaloutput,andfallsteeplyinthoseregionswithsignificantincreasesinagriculturaloutput.Thesewillhavenegativeimpactsonpovertyandotheraspectsofsocialwelfare,andmayverylikelyaffectmillionsoffarmersandconsumers’livelihoods.Moreover,evenifthePRC’sagriculturalproductscanbeself-sufficientatthenationallevel,regionalfoodsecuritycannotbeachievedwithoutanefficientinternaltradesystem.Nonagriculturalsectorswillalsobeadverselyafftectedsincethelinkagesbetweenagriculturalandnonagriculturalsectorsarebecomingmuchcloser.StudiesontheimpactsofclimatechangeonthePRC’sagriculturehavebeenincreasing.Thecurrentliteraturecertainlyhelpsusunderstandtheimpacts,whichgenerallyareestimatedtobenegative(Wangetal.2009,Harasawaetal.2003,Tsigasetal.1997,Zhaietal.2009,Kaneetal.1992).Tothebestofourknowledge,however,nopreviousstudieshaveassessedtheimpactsofclimatechangeonthePRC’sagriculturalinterregionaltradeflows.ThescarcityofsuchstudiescanbeattributedtoabsenceofdataonthePRC’sinterregionaltradeflowsuntilveryrecently.Thesedataarenowavailablefor2years:1987and2000.The2000datawaspublishedinIchimuraandWang(2007).Inpassing,itisnote